Inside President Ruto hurdles in 2027 re-election quest

The upcoming 2027 election is emerging as the ultimate political endurance test for President William Ruto, even as he gears up to defend his seat for a second term.

Analysis of the political landscape reveals that Ruto’s journey towards the election is a daunting climb in the face of growing economic discontent, crumbling alliances and voter bases and a resurgent opposition.

The President masterfully pitched a ‘hustler’ narrative and a formidable Kenya Kwanza coalition to secure State House in 2022.

That has, however, changed, especially after stifling economic realities appear to have contradicted his campaign promises.

The head of state has to navigate a severe cash crunch while attempting to deliver the legacy projects - roads, railways, affordable housing– that were central to his platform.

Simultaneously, he must manufacture hope for Kenyans, “crying foul about economic challenges,” from the high cost of living to heavy taxation. 

The void left by Raila Odinga last October is also viewed as presenting Ruto with the huge challenge of keeping the former Prime Minister’s bases intact.

Sharp divisions have played out among key Raila allies, with ODM, which the President is banking on to secure victory, teetering on the brink of a split.

The Orange party is developing cracks at a time when the cornerstone of Ruto's 2022 victory, the Mount Kenya region, is also showing signs of drifting away.

After the dramatic impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in October 2024, the region has grown increasingly disgruntled.

Gachagua has openly mounted a campaign dismissing the president’s ambitious “Singapore dream” as “yet another campaign gimmick.”

Analysts estimate the region contributed roughly 47 per cent of his support in 2022, with the defections set to cost him over three million votes.

In an interview with the Star, Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni says “Kenyans have resolved that they won’t vote for William Ruto.” “No amount of rigging will help him.”

“Ruto has his work cut out to undo the perceptions that he has failed to deliver his promises,” he said.

The plan to use ODM as a backup support system is feared could backfire spectacularly amid the ensuing divisions in the party.

Members of the Orange outfit are split on how to interpret Raila’s wish for the party in the Ruto 2027 matrix.

Pundits say his death has punctured Ruto’s momentum, and instead of boosting UDA prospects, it has unleashed chaos.

Founders threw a spanner in the works, saying it is the President to join the party if he is to survive the onslaught.

A faction led by figures like secretary general Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino holds that ODM must leave Ruto's broad-based government and challenge him directly in 2027.

The opposing camp, including party leader Oburu Odinga and chairperson Gladys Wanga,say a formalised alliance with the head of state is a sure way to secure a place in the administration.

The wrangles are feared to lead to an eventual split, hurting the very numbers Ruto desperately needs to offset losses elsewhere.

Ruto's predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, is also widely touted as having “mounted a campaign to counter Ruto’s moves.”

ODM top guns have posited he has a hand in the divisions that have played in the party lately, a claim Uhuru vehemently dismissed.

Central to the Presidents woes is the public mood, characterised more by uncertainty than hope.

Recent public opinion data paints a picture worth the attention of any incumbent seeking re-election.

A December 2025 Infotrak survey reveals that only 29 per cent of Kenyans believe 2026 will be better than 2025.

A significant 30 per cent are unsure what to expect, while 25 per cent said they expect no change, and 16 per cent anticipate things will worsen.

“President Ruto has limited time to shift public perception before the campaign season intensifies. The people left him long ago,” Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru alias Mejjadonk, a staunch Gachagua ally, said.

The lawmaker said the administration is already haunted by criticism of broken promises and has no answers to the struggling economy.

Yet, within Ruto’s camp, members exude the confidence that the President has nothing to worry about in the upcoming polls.

Pokot South MP David Pkosing said, with certainty, that “Ruto will survive.”

For the third-term lawmaker who plans to defect to UDA to seek the West Pokot Governor seat, the opposition lacks a credible challenger.

“There is no competitor worth his salt to beat Ruto. The biggest advantage is his track record,” he says, citing a stabilising shilling, economic growth and infrastructure.

“When the rubber meets the road, people will talk of those things the president has done successfully. The opposition has no track record and cannot beat him.”

He dismissed the threat from Uhuru, saying, “He made Raila Odinga fail. How did Raila fail, yet he was president?”

Pkosing also downplayed the Mt Kenya rebellion, saying the former president stands no chance to influence the region’s vote.

“We got less than 10 per cent of the Mt Kenya vote when he backed Raila in 2022. In West Pokot, we delivered more than 50 per cent. With ODM and UDA working together, Ruto has no competitor in the 2027 elections.”

Political analyst Javas Bigambo backed Pkosing's take. "President Ruto seems gifted in building foresight and mental pictures through his mastery of political language and use."

"That is why his heartfelt discourse on development infrastructure, rolling out various projects and not delving into ODM's internal conflicts will make the opposition struggle to craft a strong counter-narrative to challenge President Ruto," he said.

For the pundit, Ruto's survival is pegged on delivering country-wide development projects and sustaining presence across all regions.

"Further, opposition is fractured and has no elements of unity, whether in messaging or purpose. Kenyans will want to see leadership, order and direction in 2027 and that is what will set President Ruto apart," Bigambo said.

Indeed, the opposition is not without its own challenges, a fact Kioni readily acknowledged.

He warned that the team must urgently get organised, noting that it has “earned the tag of being ‘tribalist’ because of some of its members’ unnecessary utterances.”

“Sloganeering should be thought out clearly. When we say 'one-term', and they respond with 'two-term', that’s a zero-sum game.”

Kioni said this was the reason Jubilee’spresumed candidate, Matiang’i, has opted for regional tours to explain his agenda over empty rhetoric. Crucially, Kioni says that to beat Ruto, “the opposition candidate must be picked by Kenyans.”

“Those who are not vying must stop playing the role of brokers,” he said.

Ruto’s path to 2027 is thus defined by a precarious balancing act, with the coming months seen as testing his political acumen.

Those lining up to challenge him include Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Matiang’i, People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah and former Chief Justice David Maraga.

INSTANT ANALYSIS:

Ruto must execute a political masterstroke that involves reuniting a fractured base, navigating an opposition in chaotic transition, winning over a sceptical publicand managing volatile new electoral blocs. This should be all while delivering tangible economic progress. The coming months will reveal whether he can craft this winning formula or succumb to the hurdles on the long road to reelection.