Poll: ODM, UDA, DCP most popular in Western

A recent Infotrak survey shows a notable shift in Western Kenya’s political landscape, with ODM, UDA, and DCP outperforming other parties like Ford Kenya and DAP-K.

The survey, which sampled 602 respondents across Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, and Trans Nzoia counties, indicates a changing political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.

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According to the poll, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leads with 25 per cent within the surveyed counties, closely followed by United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 20 per cent, and the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) at 7 per cent.

Other parties like Ford Kenya and DAP-K recorded only 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

Other parties including Wiper, Jubilee, PNU, United Green Movement, Maendeleo Chap Chap, Restore and Build Kenya Party, MDG, and Peoples’ Democracy Party registered support of 1 percent each, with other minor parties collectively holding 5 percent.

County-level analysis reveals significant variations in party performance.

In Kakamega, ODM leads with 29 percent, followed by UDA at 13 percent, and DCP at 8 percent, while Ford Kenya and DAP-K trail at 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

Vihiga shows a tighter race, with ODM at 25 percent, UDA at 24 percent, Ford Kenya at 4 percent, and DAP-K at 1 percent.

In Bungoma, UDA takes the lead at 27 percent, ODM follows with 18 percent, and DCP is at 5 percent, while Ford Kenya and DAP-K stand at 7 percent and 1 percent.

In Busia, ODM enjoys 27 percent support, UDA 17 percent, DCP 11 percent, and both Ford Kenya and DAP-K remain marginal at 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Trans Nzoia shows ODM at 26 percent, UDA at 21 percent, DCP at 5 percent, Ford Kenya at 3 percent, and DAP-K at 2 percent.

The survey also examined gender dynamics, revealing that ODM enjoys equal support among men and women (25 percent each), while UDA is slightly stronger among men (22 percent) than women (18 percent). DCP maintains parity across genders at 7 percent each.

Infotrak conducted the survey using Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI), targeting registered voters aged 18 years and above, achieving a 100 percent response rate.

The poll carries a margin of error of ±4 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, and data was processed and analyzed using SPSS 27 for accuracy and reliability.

As the 2027 elections approach, these results suggest that the traditional political map in Western Kenya may be undergoing a significant realignment.

This poll offers early insights into voter sentiment in the Mulembe Nation, hinting at a potentially competitive and unpredictable political landscape in the upcoming election cycle.