How by-election wins give ODM negotiation boost for 2027 poll

The resounding victory of the Orange Democratic Movement in Thursday’s parliamentary by-elections has handed the party a significant boost as it enters the long stretch towards the 2027 general election.

In a vote widely viewed as an early rehearsal for the next national polls, ODM clinched three parliamentary seats, reaffirming its grassroots strength at a moment when questions linger about its future direction.

ODM won in Kasipul, Magarini and Ugunja constituencies, sweeping all the seats it aggressively campaigned for.

The by-elections, triggered by various vacancies, attracted intense interest from rival parties eager to test political narratives in the post-Raila Odinga era.

In Kasipul, Boyd Were secured a comfortable victory after garnering 16,819 votes.

His closest challenger, independent candidate Philip Aroko, got 8,476 votes.

Were’s win not only kept Kasipul in ODM’s column but also demonstrated the party’s continued dominance in Homa Bay politics despite internal realignments and shifting national dynamics.

In Magarini constituency, ODM’s Harrison Kombe emerged victorious with 17,909 votes. He defeated Democracy for Citizens Party candidate Stanley Kenga, who came second with 8,907 votes.

The Magarini outcome was particularly symbolic for ODM, which has been working to consolidate its influence in the Coast region following years of political fluidity and the entry of new political outfits.

In Ugunja, ODM candidate Moses Omondi clinched victory with 9,227 votes.

His win reinforced ODM’s historical grip on Siaya politics and reassured party supporters that its traditional strongholds remain firm despite national shifts and the realignments brought about by the broad-based government arrangement with President William Ruto.

These victories have been widely interpreted as a vote of confidence from ODM’s base.

They strengthen the party’s negotiating power ahead of the 2027 polls, especially within the evolving political landscape following the passing of former party leader Raila Odinga.

Raila, famously known as The Enigma, had for decades been the face of ODM and a dominant figure in national politics.

His death raised concerns that the party could lose its mojo and weaken its influence in national decision-making.

Speaking after Boyd was declared the winner in Kasipul, ODM national chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga said the results reaffirm the party’s resilience.

“It shows the ODM party remains strong, resilient and ready,” Wanga said.

“For those who wrote off ODM because of the passing of Baba, I think they have now seen for themselves.”

She said the victories are both a tribute to the legacy of Raila and a demonstration of the party’s enduring connection with the electorate.

“ODM is the largest party and is in touch with its masses. It is a big honour for our departed party leader. The people of Kasipul have come out to say a very big thank you.”

President William Ruto also weighed in, congratulating ODM and UDA winners across the country.

He said their wins reflect the strength of unity under the broad-based government.

UDA also secured key wins, including Vincent Chemitei in the Baringo senatorial race, David Ndakwa in Malava, and Ahmed Hassan in Banissa.

“Your victory is a powerful reminder to us that we are bigger and better as a country when we are united,” President Ruto said.