Raila succession: Who is the next big thing in Nyanza?

The passing of Raila Odinga has created a profound leadership vacuum in Luo politics, ending a three-decade era of singular authority.

This has ignited a quiet but intense succession race, with a field of seasoned and youthful contenders vying to inherit his mantle. The struggle to define the community's future direction is now underway.

Days after Raila’s passing, the focus now turns to who will take up the mantle of Luo political leadership.

Raila has held the community leadership for more than 30 years after the death of his father and the first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga in 1994.

His death has ignited a silent but serious scramble among seasoned and youthful leaders.

The Odinga family last Thursday installed Raila Odinga Jnr as the head of Raila’s family – a move many believe is meant to prepare the business magnet for bigger roles, including politics.

Some of the big names popping up in Raila’s succession include Treasury CS John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), governors James Orengo (Siaya), Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay) and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

Raila Jnr’s name also features prominently in the list.

Mbadi served as ODM national chairman for years and has been one of Raila’s most trusted lieutenants, often defending the party line even in the face of strong political storms.

His consistency, maturity and strategic mind have earned him respect, with many viewing him as a steady hand capable of guiding the community through the post-Raila transition.

Last week, President William Ruto stunned mourners during the burial of Raila when he heaped praises on the Treasury boss, saying he ‘fits the bill’.

Ruto said the former lawmaker has demonstrated his competence by turning around the economy in the one year he has been in office.

“I told Raila I want to have the first Finance CS from Nyanza and he gave me this man called Nyang’ [Mbadi’s nickname]. I am very happy that Baba and I made the decision to have John Mbadi as the Finance CS of the Republic of Kenya. Today, inflation and exchange rates have come down and Kenya is now the sixth-largest economy in Africa,” Ruto said.

“Doesn't this man, John Mbadi, fit the bill?”

Last year, after Raila stepped aside as ODM party leader to vie for AUC chairmanship, his widow Ida Odinga endorsed Mbadi.

Ida said the seasoned lawmaker is of age and is best suited to lead the politically charged community in Raila’s absence.

She assured the community that the ex-PM has people who can take charge in his absence.

“Baba told me to send his greetings. He said you should remain steadfast following the new political developments, as he has already assembled a competent team that can take charge in case he goes to Addis Ababa,” Ida said.

“For long, Baba has been training Mbadi and he [Mbadi] does not need any more training. You fit the bill, Mbadi Nyang’, that is it. Mbadi is where Raila’s heart is,” Ida said amidst applause.

That was the first time a senior member of the influential Jaramogi family publicly gave direction on who should lead the community.

Speaking during Raila’s burial, the former Parliamentary Accounts Committee chairman said the community would get political direction after 30 days of mourning.

While acknowledging the role Raila has played, likening him to the biblical Moses who led the Israelites out of bondage in Egypt, Mbadi said the former PM led the community through decades of political struggle but died before reaching the “promised land”.

“Our Moses is gone, but Aaron is here, Joshua is here,” Mbadi said amidst applause.

“As a people, we are asking for 30 days of mourning. After 30 days, we will give you Luo Nyanza’a political direction.”

Also in the crowded race is Wandayi, who, like Mbadi, has been by Raila's side since his youthful days.

The immediate former Ugunja MP and Minority Leader is a firebrand opposition figure, ensuring the party's position is followed to the letter.

Orengo and Wanga are also seen as well-established and experienced leaders who are capable of guiding the community from where Raila left it.

Babu’s age and youthful energy mostly appeals to the younger generation.

Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma said only the spiritual force, Juogi, will determine who replaces Raila.

“Political leadership in our community is determined by the spirit of our community, it is called Juogi. It is never campaigned for; people never sit down to decide it. The leaders will emerge; Juogi will guide people to follow that one leader,” he said.

Political analyst Gitile Naituli said Mbadi will have to navigate complex political undercurrents and a restless generation of emerging leaders eager to define a new Luo political order.

“He will not easily cut it, for now he is a contender, but he should watch out for new emerging leaders,” he said.

The university don said Raila’s death has opened space for a new breed of Luo leaders who may not necessarily rally in the current leadership setup.

“Nyanza has leaders people have not been able to see because of the power of Raila Odinga’s shadow. But now, they will emerge and become the voice through which the community’s frustrations will be expressed,” he said.

“Nyanza produces very aggressive, clever and strong leaders; they all now have a chance to come out.”

Unlike other communities where leaders follow the people, Naituli said Nyanza will eventually settle on an individual who will give the region direction, just like Raila did for more than three decades.

“Luo Nyanza differs significantly from other communities. The community will identify a strong leader, admire the cleverest and fearless to lead them,” Naituli said.

Beyond the immediate contenders, Raila's death has fundamentally altered the political ecosystem of Luo Nyanza.

As Naituli observes, his immense shadow previously stifled the rise of other strong leaders.

Now, a new, more aggressive generation, represented by figures like Babu and untested scions like Raila Jnr, sees an opening.

This promises a period of fragmentation and vigorous debate as these emergent voices seek to channel the community's aspirations and frustrations.

The post-Raila era will be defined not by a single coronation, but by this ongoing negotiation for the soul of Luo politics.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The final determinant of leadership may well lie in the complex interplay between modern political calculation and the traditional concept of "Juogi", the community's guiding spirit. The successor will not simply be appointed but will have to emerge through a process of communal acceptance. Whoever ultimately prevails must perform a delicate balancing act; honouring Raila's formidable legacy while addressing the urgent need for development, all while unifying a restless and newly diversified political field.