How Raila’s death punctures ODM’s 2027 negotiations with Ruto

Raila, the mystery and master tactician of Kenyan politics, was the unifying force and key player whose influence across multiple regions strengthened ODM’s position at the negotiation table.

For nearly four decades, the veteran politician dominated the political scene, commanding loyalty from key voting blocs in Nyanza, Western, Coast, Northeastern, Nairobi and parts of the Rift Valley.

His stronghold in these regions gave ODM a formidable edge and made him an indispensable player in shaping national coalitions.

With his death, questions abound on whether ODM can retain its political muscle without the man who embodied its brand and unity.

“It is a fact, ODM and Kenya at large have no other leader with the stature and following of Raila,” political observer Martin Andati said.

“So many bases are going to disintegrate, and that will injure ODM.”
Andati said Nyanza could fragment politically, while the Western and Coastal regions may see the rise of new regional kingpins.

Vocal leaders such as Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and Mining CS Hassan Joho are among those expected to emerge as potential power centres.
Before his death, speculations swirled that Raila and his ODM party could demand a Deputy President position in the next elections.

Figures such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, an ardent Raila supporter who had fully embraced Ruto’s broad-based government, were believed to be eyeing the running mate slot.

“She is good at lobbying, including for resources from the national government that have made Ruto visit and launch many projects in the county. That is giving her some serious credit,” Andati said.

Besides, ODM is expected to bag several other positions, including Cabinet Secretaries, principal secretaries, heads of parastatals and ambassadors.

Already, in the broad-based government, which Raila himself negotiated, ODM landed key Cabinet slots and other senior positions in government.

Beneficiaries include Treasury CS John Mbadi, Energy’s Opiyo Wandayi, Mining’s Hassan Joho, Cooperatives’ Wycliffe Oparanya, EAC’s Beatrice Askul and Attorney General Dorcas Oduor.

Raila’s absence now leaves a gaping void that could weaken the party’s hand in future negotiations, diminishing its prospects of securing favourable terms ahead of the next General Election. 

Adding to the uncertainty is the growing division within the Orange Party over whether to back Ruto’s re-election.

ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna and MP Babu Owino have led a faction openly opposing the party’s engagement with Ruto’s administration.

“This thing called broad-based government, I don’t know where it exists. Personally, I don’t recognise any entity called broad-based. There is a government of Kenya Kwanza under the leadership of President Ruto, and every CS serving in that government serves the Kenya Kwanza government,” Sifuna said recently.

“Baba told me that even after we donated our experts to the government, ODM is not in government. He said it himself.”

“If ODM is not in government, the secretary general of ODM cannot be in government,” he added.
Despite internal dissent, Raila managed to keep ODM intact, balancing rival camps and maintaining cohesion.

It remains unclear whether his elder brother, Senator Oburu Odinga, who has been picked by ODM’s top organ as acting party leader, can replicate that unifying role.

On Thursday, ODM's National Executive Committee (NEC) unanimously endorsed Oburu's designation as the acting party leader.

Though Raila had not explicitly endorsed Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027, his decision to allow key allies to work with the President, coupled with his close working relationship with the Head of State, spoke volumes.

“Don’t commit the party to things that have not been discussed. Who told you ODM does not have a candidate in 2027?” Raila told ODM members last month.

“As ODM, we have a clear plan that we have agreed on, and let us implement it. Other decisions will be made when the time comes.”  

Raila’s pragmatic partnership with Ruto emerged after a wave of Gen Z-led protests that nearly paralysed the Kenya Kwanza administration, forcing the President to seek inclusivity and national dialogue.

Observers say Ruto, who hoped to inherit Raila’s bases, could be forced to go to the drawing board and strategise to steady his re-election boat in Raila’s departure.

“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now out, he needs a replacement, which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” political observer Elias Mutuma said.

Andati said the President must go back to the drawing board.

“Even with Raila, we still saw murmurs and defiance. We saw the likes of Sifuna outrightly rejecting. What will happen now that Baba is no more?”