Will Fred Matiang'i chat his own path away from United Opposition?

Dr. Fred Matiang'i at Jubilee Party NDC last Friday in Nairobi./JUBILEE

Former Interior Affairs Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i place in the political landscape is facing close scrutiny with fears of facing isolation by the united opposition.

Last Friday, Matiang’i chose to attend his former boss Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party National Delegates Convention (NDC) while his partners were at Martha Karua’s NLP party NDC.

The former minister is yet to identify a party to associate even as he prepares a stab at the presidential bid and Friday’s action gave indication that he may settle on Jubilee.

Opposition insiders revealed that there was an attempt to dissuade Dr. Matiang’i from gracing the Jubilee Party NDC especially from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s camp.

Jubilee party and its association with Uhuru is seen as a threat to Gachagua and DCP’s grip of the Mt Kenya region; with a Matiang’i take over seen as inviting direct contest with Gachagua.

On Sunday, Gachagua failed to mention Matiang’i during a rally in Kitengela, Kajiado as he hinted at an alleged plot to divide the opposition, an indicator that his association with Jubilee may not be welcome.

The DCP leader told supporters that the Trans Nzoia governor had assured him of his commitment to the united opposition.

“Eugene Wamalwa was offered a Cabinet slot in the Broad-based government, but he declined. So, between myself, Kalonzo, Wamalwa, Natembeya and Martha Karua; those five leaders can not betray the people of Kenya and among us, we shall name one person to compete with Ruto.”

Busia Senator Okiya Omatatah argues that Matiang’i may not face a big predicament as he is in a very familiar territory as he jostles to get a backing for his presidential quest.

He likens the political manoeuvrers in Kenya to a prison where wardens are always fighting where there is no attempt for jail break but close ranks to safeguard the interest if they face any existential threat.

“The Kenya that came from independence is a prison. Every five years, prisoners have an opportunity to chose their chief warden. When there is an attempted jail break, they (politicians) unite to safeguard their interests but when there is no threat, you will hear the noise,” Omatatah says.

He added; “This is an issue of preserving the prison. Matiangi is an insider and can be comfortable being in any side.  He doesn’t threaten any side as they perceive him as one their own. They will eventually close ranks and accommodate him somewhere.”

Former Nyamira Senator Kennedy Okong’o argues that Kenya’s electoral politics has always revolved around coalition building, ethnic balancing, and elite bargains.

In this imagined scenario, Okong’o states that ex-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (“Riggy G”) disrupts the traditional opposition fold by aligning with Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, and George Natembeya, thereby breaking ranks with Fred Matiang’i and Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee network.

“The fallout creates a unique three-horse race in the 2027 presidential contest, one likely to deny any candidate a first-round victory and push Kenya into its first-ever runoff,” the former senator said.

Former Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria says the perceived isolation from the united opposition may turn out of be a blessing in disguise if Matiang’i uses it to build his own political space.

“Its very good for Matiangi to be out of that coalition to no where. He now needs to chat his own course away from even President Uhuru. He may turn out to be a formidable force by 2027 if he plays well,” Kuria said adding that it’s too early to build any coalition at this stage.

Kuria just like ex-senator Okong’o foresees a three-horse race in 2027, and depending on Matiangi’s game plan, he can be at vantage position of winning.

“He needs to build his own movement through Jubilee as a Coalition and not party. In that way, he will attract other parties to his side,” he adds.

Insiders in the united opposition however have indicated that the  leaders will meet soon to iron out any outstanding or emerging issues as they strive to build a coalition.

Already, the team is studying a document drafted by former Agriculture Minister Kipruto Arap Kirwa highlighting the steps to be followed in crafting a winning coalition.