Inside Raila’s secret strategy to contain Ruto while calming his bases

ODM leader Raila Odinga is once again playing a game of high-stakes chess as he seeks to balance his newly warm ties with President William Ruto while keeping his long-time support base loyal.

The veteran politician, often described as a master tactician, is walking a political tightrope — assuring supporters that he has not abandoned his presidential ambitions while projecting pragmatism in his dealings with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

On Monday, Raila moved to quell speculation about a 2027 pre-election pact with Ruto, firmly declaring that ODM had not reached any decision on backing the President.

“We have not passed any resolutions as a party to say how we are going to go into the elections of 2027. Wherever you are, don’t commit the party to some things which have not been discussed. Let them be discussed first,” Raila told legislators during an ODM Parliamentary Group meeting.

“Who told you ODM will not have a candidate in 2027?” he asked.

The remarks struck a careful balance: Raila neither shut the door on working with Ruto nor committed ODM to supporting the President’s re-election.

Instead, he projected ambiguity — a calculated move, analysts say, to preserve ODM’s bargaining power while keeping his base excited with the possibility of another run for State House.

Since formalising a working arrangement with Ruto earlier this year, Raila has appeared closer to government than ever before.

Yet this closeness has not been universally embraced in ODM.

Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and other key figures have privately and publicly expressed unease, warning that too much proximity to power could dilute the Orange brand and alienate the party’s grassroots supporters.

To manage the unease, Raila has adopted a two-pronged strategy.

On one hand, he maintains cordial relations with Ruto, avoiding open confrontation.

On the other, he keeps ODM’s machinery active — staging rallies, by-elections, and policy forums to energise the base and project independence.

To keep his “disgruntled” base engaged, Raila has balanced mild criticism of government with grassroots mobilisation.

ODM has for instance lined up a series of rallies and events — from Wajir on Sunday to a planned mega rally in Kisii on Friday — all part of a broader effort to project vibrancy ahead of the party’s 20th anniversary celebrations in October.

“Wajir remains as solid, vibrant and loyal to ODM as ever; a juicy stronghold that continues to prove its commitment to the movement and its values,” Governor Ahmed Abdullahi said at the weekend gathering.

A three-day jamboree is planned for Mombasa in October to crown the celebrations.

By keeping ODM vibrant at the grassroots, Raila signals that the party remains a political force in its own right — regardless of his open lines with Ruto.

Still, cracks within ODM are evident.

Some leaders in Raila’s camp argue that any association with Ruto risks being read as capitulation.

They warn that ODM’s 2027 prospects could be jeopardised if supporters feel the party is shielding government from accountability.

Raila seems aware of the risk.

His rhetoric has often contained subtle criticisms of Ruto’s administration, a nod to disgruntled supporters who demand a strong opposition voice.

But he stops short of launching full-scale attacks, careful not to destabilise the partnership with Ruto.

This is not the first time Raila has straddled the uncomfortable line between government and opposition.

His political career is punctuated with examples: from his 2008 power-sharing deal with President Mwai Kibaki that made him Prime Minister, to the 2018 “handshake” with President Uhuru Kenyatta that redefined Kenya’s political landscape.

In each case, Raila has presented himself as both a statesman capable of building bridges and a populist leader defending the interests of his loyal base.

His latest dalliance with Ruto follows the same script — and once again raises questions about whether his political ambitions extend to the ballot or beyond it.

For Ruto, the alliance with Raila provides a buffer against growing discontent over the economy and governance.

For Raila, it offers relevance and influence at a time when many had written him off as a spent force.

Nambale MP Geoffrey Mulanya said Raila is carefully managing perceptions.

“Raila is assuring his supporters that he has not given up his political ambition. What he is doing is preparing his foot soldiers,” Mulanya said.

Yet Raila’s remarks also ignited debate within the Rigathi Gachagua camp, with some of his allies reading them as political posturing.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya dismissed the ODM boss’s statement as politics of survival.

“He is only playing politics of survival,” Gakuya said.

Machakos deputy governor Francis Mwangangi termed Raila’s move bait for both opposition and Ruto to engage him ahead of 2027.

“He (Raila) could have seen the mood in the country that the President and his alliance have lost the goodwill of Kenyans hence need to send signals to his former colleagues that anything is possible since we have not agreed on the future,” Mwangagi argued.

“There is also probability of wanting the President to initiate such a talk beyond 2027 by saying that we have no deal is to tell the President the need to talk about the future.”

Raila’s allies have however rushed to his defense amid claims he is flip flopping on his stance toward President Ruto and the 2027 deal. His inner circle insists there is no contradiction.

“I support President William Ruto where he does well, just as I also oppose misses by his administration,” Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma said.

“Like I told you, don’t be so sure with Baba (Raila). Baba will go where Kenyans will be, and most Kenyans want William Ruto out of office like yesterday,” added Saboti MP Caleb Amisi

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei has downplayed growing concerns over Raila’s latest comments during the ODM Parliamentary Group meeting, cautioning that they should not be “over-interpreted.”

Cherargei, a close ally of Ruto, sought to calm political speculation, insisting that Raila’s statement does not amount to a reversal or betrayal of the agreement.

“People should not read too much into what Raila said in ODM Parliamentary Group meeting because UDA-ODM joint partnership is working perfectly beyond 2027. In any case President Ruto is a former ODM member,” Cherargei said.

The senator insisted that the ongoing partnership between ODM and UDA remains strong and intact.