Harambee Stars players acknowledge fans after the match with Morocco on August 9, 2025 at Kasarani stadium/FILE

The Harambee Stars could find themselves celebrating a place in the quarter-finals of the ongoing African Nations Championship (CHAN) tournament as early as today, without kicking a ball.

Kenya sits comfortably on top of Group A with 7 points from three matches, ahead of Angola on 4, while DR Congo and Morocco have 3 points each.

Zambia, winless after two games, prop up the table.

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With Kenya having beaten Morocco, DR Congo and drawn with Angola, it remains with a match against Zambia on Sunday, August 17.

This afternoon’s fixtures, Angola vs DR Congo and Morocco vs Zambia, could determine whether Kenya’s last group game will be a formality or a fight for survival.

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The qualification arithmetic

Kenya’s 7 points from three matches put them in a commanding position, but today’s results will determine whether their place in the quarter-finals is mathematically sealed ahead of their final group game.

If Angola and DR Congo draw, Angola will rise to 5 points and DR Congo to 4.

In that case, neither team could overtake Kenya even if the Stars lose to Zambia next weekend, because their maximum possible points would still fall short of Kenya’s tally.

If Angola wins today’s match, which is their last group game, they will join Kenya on 7 points.

DR Congo would remain stuck on 3, and even with a win in their last match, could only reach 6, still one shy of Kenya.

DR Congo will remain with one match against Morocco.

This result would also mean early qualification for the Stars. Even if DR Congo beats Angola, moving to 6 points, they would still trail Kenya by one.

DR Congo is a two-time CHAN champion, while Angola was a runner-up in the 2011 tournament.

The last time these two sides met in a CHAN final phase was in Rwanda 2016, a goal-laden semi-final that DRC won 4-2 before lifting the trophy.

The only threat to early confirmation in this case would be Morocco winning both of their remaining matches, today against Zambia and next Sunday against DR Congo.

That would take Morocco to 9 points, potentially pushing Kenya into a must-get-result scenario against Zambia.

Why today matters

The Stars’ fate hinges on the Angola-DR Congo result.

Any outcome other than a DR Congo win, combined with a Morocco double victory, keeps Kenya safe.

Angola is playing its last match today.

Remaining matches after today

The group stage wraps up next Sunday with two fixtures: DR Congo vs Morocco, a high-stakes clash that could decide the second qualification spot.

Zambia vs Kenya, a chance for the Stars to seal top spot and head into the quarter-finals with momentum.

For Kenya, that Zambia game could either be a must-win decider or a relaxed run-out.

If results go their way today, coach Benny McCarthy might have the luxury of rotating his squad to keep key players fresh for the knockout stage.