High stakes and deep mistrust as IEBC team begins work

THE newly constituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission faces an uphill task as it assumes leadership of one of the country’s most scrutinised institutions.

Chairperson Edung Ethekon and commissioners Anne Nderitu, Moses Mukhwana, Mary Sorobit, Hassan Noor Hassan, Francis Aduol, and Fahima Abdallah officially took office on Friday, vowing to deliver credible elections and restore public confidence in the electoral agency.

Their appointment followed a bruising recruitment process marked by a political tug of war and fierce scrutiny.

 But, according to analysts, the real challenge begins now.

The commission is tasked with overseeing the 2027 General Election, a high-stakes contest unfolding against a backdrop of mounting political tension, logistical complexity, and the lingering shadow of past electoral failures.

They inherit an institution still recovering from the bitter fallout of the 2022 presidential election, which left Wafula Chebukati’s commission deeply divided.

The dramatic events at Bomas of Kenya, where Azimio agents stormed the podium, seized microphones, and nearly disrupted the final declaration of President William Ruto’s victory, remain a stark reminder of the political volatility that surrounds Kenya’s electoral processes.

Four commissioners would later reject the results, further fracturing the institution before being pushed out entirely.

The stakes for 2027 are even higher. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has already sounded the alarm, warning that any perception of electoral malpractice could ignite chaos surpassing the 2007 post-election crisis.

“If they fail to deliver, 2007 will be a Christmas party,” Gachagua warned, in a chilling reference to the violence that claimed over 1,300 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Rights groups and public watchdogs have also raised the pressure. Consumer Federation of Kenya boss Stephen Mutoro questioned the new team’s readiness to uphold democratic integrity under immense pressure.

 “Will they serve Kenya or one man’s ego? Will they learn from 2007-08 or rehearse a sequel? With timelines tighter than the economy, can they even mount a credible poll?” Mutoro posed.

The new commissioners step into a charged political arena, with Ruto expected to seek re-election amid growing rivalry with his estranged deputy Gachagua.

Analysts warn that how the IEBC handles the vote could determine whether this political contest is settled at the ballot or spills into the streets.

Chief Justice Martha Koome, who presided over the swearing-in, emphasised the weight of their responsibility.

“IEBC is not merely an elections management body but one of the cornerstones of Kenya’s constitutional democracy,” she said.

“Your work impacts the legitimacy of the government, the stability of the nation, and the confidence of the people in the rule of law and democratic governance.”

Koome reminded the new team that they now hold the keys to national stability and that their decisions could either heal or harm the country.

“You are now the custodian of a process that has in the past defined the trajectory of our country, for better or for worse,” she said.

She issued a stern call for independence: “May the first prefix of your name—Independent—always sound a clear tone, especially if anybody or institution attempts to interfere with your decisions.”

Experts argue that for the IEBC to restore credibility and avoid catastrophe, it must enforce strict neutrality especially in results transmission and dispute resolution.

Arthur Osiya, Principal Administrative Secretary in the Executive Office of the President, told the commissioners that the country’s future now rests on their shoulders.

“You are a commission, not commissions. Collegiality and collectiveness are key to the trust you will get from us,” Osiya said. “There is a lot of hope out there. Make it your task to carry Kenyans with you.”

With the bitter fallout between Ruto and his former deputy, and the camps building for the 2027 elections, the IEBC risks becoming a battleground.

Gachagua has openly clashed with Ruto’s allies, accusing them of orchestrating "electoral monkey business" and warning of dire consequences if the 2027 polls are mismanaged.

His rhetoric evokes memories of 2007, when disputed results led to more than 1,300 deaths, a scenario the former DP suggests could be repeated if the IEBC fails to uphold fairness.

Even so, IEBC chairperson Edung Ethekon exuded confidence that the team would deliver the assignment.

‘We will approach the duty with urgency and commitment as guided by the constitution and the people’s expectation,” the incoming chairperson said.

“Credibility of elections depends on respect for the rule of law. We are committed to taking that responsibility seriously. We will abide by the words and spirit of our oath of office.”

Ethekon stated that the IEBC would “ensure that every citizen’s voice is not only heard but honoured.”

“My first loyalty is to the people of Kenya, who hold sovereign power. I assure Kenyans that their voices will not only be heard but will also count in the coming elections.”

He forewarned that the commission would face challenges in misinformation, disinformation and fake news, but they will overcome.

“We will work with the media to build trust in our electoral processes. A credible election is not the IEBC’s alone but a national responsibility. Let other institutions support us.”

To the citizens, the IEBC chief said: “Show up, engage, vote and participate in ensuring we do our job well for the sake of the country.”

The new commissioners are not just administrators but referees in a high-stakes political duel with a nexus to national stability.

The team further faces logistical hurdles, considering that the commission has not been fully constituted for years, delaying key preparatory steps.

The new IEBC team has to source a Sh57.4 billion election budget, register new voters and replace outdated election technology.

Pending bills, including Sh2.65 billion in legal fees from past election disputes, threaten to derail operations.

Nairobi Woman Representative Esther Passaris said the team should be “guided by wisdom, integrity, and an unwavering commitment to electoral justice.” 

INSTANT ANALYSIS

As the new IEBC team settles in, the weight of their mandate is clear and has been restated by key players. However, the road ahead is not so paved, and is fraught with political landmines, logistical nightmares, and the shadow of past electoral failures. The new commissioners’ success or failure will not just determine the credibility of the 2027 polls but could also define Kenya’s democratic future.