Trump card? Talk of Ruto, Raila ticket courts mixed reactions

The possibility of a joint ticket for President William Ruto and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga in the upcoming polls has sent shockwaves, with observers saying it has the potential to redefine the 2027 contest.

Floated by seasoned politician and Eldama Ravine MP Musa Sirma, the idea has triggered talks suggesting that the ODM boss could deputise Ruto in the next elections. 

This was said in the presence of Raila confidant and Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi during the Kapyemit Last Mile Electrification project in Eldama Ravine.

Vouching for the union, Sirma argued that Raila on a joint ticket with Ruto would cement national unity and secure votes from Nyanza, a critical battleground.

“We have no problem with Raila becoming the running mate to the President so as to bag the entire Nyanza, so be it,” Sirma said last week.

“What we are saying right now, if the people in Nyanza and Rift Valley join forces, the country will shake. This is because in 2007, we won, but our votes were stolen. Today, we are in the government, and we can't be defeated if we have Baba on our side."

The talk is gaining momentum after Raila’s African Union bid hit a snag earlier this year, leaving room for speculation about his next political move. 

At the same time, Ruto faces emerging cracks in his Mount Kenya support base – a region that played a decisive role in his 2022 victory but has grown increasingly restless.

In a veiled warning last month, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi cautioned Mount Kenya leaders that their grip on the deputy presidency is not guaranteed. 

“I want to appreciate the leaders from here (Mt Kenya), you are solid, but if you continue playing and let it slip, we want it and we will take it. A bird in hand is better than 10 in the bush. Hold on to what you have, take it seriously. There are Kenyans out there who wish they had a fraction of what you have,” Mudavadi said during a church service at the African Independent Pentecostal Church of Africa in Othaya, Nyeri county.

But in politics, nothing happens by accident; the latest whispers are clear signals of possible changes as the country moves to the polls. Though once unthinkable, the idea is gaining traction among key political operatives, even as Raila’s ODM party dismissed the proposal.

The suggestion of Raila playing second fiddle to Ruto will, however, be a hard sell to ODM’s top brass. 

Party secretary general Edwin Sifuna has instead suggested that Ruto should back the ODM leader for the presidency in 2027.

“If you love this broad-based government so much and as Kiborek has said, when work became too much for Ruto, he came looking for Raila who is now holding this government together, then in 2027, Ruto should step back and let Baba (Raila) lead,” Sifuna told a cheering crowd in Migori on May 18.

Sources close to both Ruto and Raila are, however, cautious to comment on the developments, with many saying they are watching as the game plan unfolds.

Speaking to the Star, political analyst and JKUAT lecturer Charles Mwangi described the suggestion as “both strategic and controversial,” saying it has unsettled a region that considers itself central to Kenya’s political power matrix.

“Sirma’s proposal touches a raw nerve – it not only disrupts the existing political calculus but also threatens to fracture the delicate regional balance within Kenya Kwanza,” Mwangi said. 

He warned that while the move may be aimed at expanding Ruto’s national support base, it could backfire by triggering rebellion among Mount Kenya leaders and voters who may feel abandoned or politically sidelined.

Echoing similar sentiments, Kiamwangi MCA Kung’u Smart said the proposal risks alienating the President from his stronghold in the central region.

“If Ruto decides to go down that road, he should be ready to face political isolation in Mount Kenya. The region has stood with him and bringing in Raila – who has historically been seen as a rival – would be seen as betrayal,” Kung’u said. 

The MCA added that Raila should emulate former President Uhuru Kenyatta by assuming the role of a statesman rather than returning to the frontlines of partisan politics.

“Uhuru stepped back after the 2022 election and took up a continental role. Raila should follow suit instead of being dragged back into succession games that risk dividing the country further,” Kung’u argued.

Isaiah Gichu, national chairman, Party of Democratic Unity, said the endorsement was a calculated trial balloon meant to gauge public reaction ahead of 2027—but warned it may backfire.

“This move seems like a political experiment, but it’s one that could explode in Ruto’s face. Raila’s political history with Mount Kenya is still raw for many voters and such a shift could erode the trust Ruto has built in the region,” Gichu said. 

He added that while a Ruto–Raila ticket might excite some national players, it would likely alienate a bloc that played a decisive role in the 2022 elections.

“Mt Kenya won’t accept being pushed out of the core leadership equation, especially after years of political investment. Ruto needs to tread carefully.”