Inside Kalonzo and Gachagua battle as 2027 race heats up

A quiet yet intense political power struggle has erupted within the nascent opposition alliance as it prepares to field a single candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the 2027 election.

Multiple insider accounts paint a picture of the yet-to-be-formed opposition coalition already grappling with internal rivalries.

Far from a united opposition front, each faction is discreetly lobbying power brokers, mobilising grassroots support, and promoting strategic narratives aimed at tilting the balance in their favour.

These remarks reflect deep frustration among Kalonzo’s loyalists, who believe their leader’s political seniority and consistency in opposition politics entitle him to the top seat.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a close ally of Kalonzo, corroborated the assertions, further shedding light on the internal wrangles within the opposition over a flagbearer.

During an interview the Star, he echoed the growing push within Wiper camp to see Kalonzo named the coalition’s presidential flagbearer.

“As a Wiper person, I want Kalonzo to be the candidate. Everybody will want their leader to be the candidate,” Maanzo said.

Last month, Maanzo told the Star that Kalonzo will not cede ground to anyone in opposition.

"Everyone knows Kalonzo is the most sober and experienced leader in this country,” the MP said.

He said opposition must settle on a leader who embodies national unity, understands governance and commands respect across the country—a clear nod to Kalonzo’s decades of political experience.

“You must make a choice which looks like the face of Kenya. You must look for someone who knows how the government works,” Maanzo said.

Kalonzo has been a fixture in Kenyan politics for decades, with a strong base in the Ukambani region. He has previously served as Vice President and has also run for President in 2007.

The politician has been positioning himself as the official leader of the opposition, emphasising that it is his turn to lead after years of supporting Raila Odinga.

Political analyst Prof Kaburu Kinoti said Kalonzo stands out as a formidable leader to fly the opposition flag.

“Kalonzo is the man to beat. He is not controversial. He has the necessary experience and is likely to partner with Matiangi,” Kinoti said.

However, critics say the former VP is a soft politician – an attribute that has worked against him.

Since 2013, Kalonzo has been overshadowed by Raila, despite his immense experience in politics and government administration.

He has three times shelved his presidential ambitions in favour of the veteran opposition leader, a move that many people claim has exposed him as indecisive and lacking aggression.

Critics also say he lacks a solid political support base besides his Ukambani backyard.

Two weeks ago, the Wiper boss hosted the opposition brigade in his Tseikuru home in Kitui, where many endorsed his presidency bid.

Meanwhile, Mt Kenya leaders are rallying around Gachagua, who, despite his controversial fallout with  Ruto and his impeachment, remains a significant political force.

Gatanga MP Edward Muriu made a strategic case for Gachagua, arguing that the flagbearer should be determined by numbers—not sentiments.

“Politics is about numbers. We will come to the table and each will table the numbers they are bringing. The people with the highest number will determine the flagbearer,” Muriu said.

Gachagua's allies are rallying around a “six million vote bloc” narrative from Mt Kenya, positioning him as the most viable candidate.

The former Mathira MP is holding talks with regional and national actors to build a bloc to unseat Ruto in the next polls.

His faction sees him as a grounded political operator, capable of fracturing Ruto’s dominance in Central Kenya while drawing support from disaffected Kenya Kwanza supporters.

However, his critics view him with scepticism, arguing he lacks the national appeal and stability to unite the opposition.

This stems from his constant bid for the people of Mt Kenya, thus attracting criticism from tribal and regional leaders who lack national appeal.

“If you want to be a presidential candidate, you must look beyond your region and community. That is what former presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta did,” said Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni.

“You must ask yourself a fundamental question: which other community can support you beyond your own?” 

At the same time, former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party is rallying behind Matiangi—a no-nonsense, formerly powerful Interior CS who ran the show during Uhuru’s era.

Already, the party has declared him as its presidential candidate for the upcoming general election.

Leaders from Gusii, the home turf of the former CS, have also thrown their weight behind him, further fuelling the infighting within opposition ranks over the presidential flagbearer.

Matiang’i is viewed as a formidable force within the opposition, with his credentials as a reformer being touted.

He also enjoys growing support from Gen Z voters — a critical and energised electoral bloc.

During the Gen Z-led protests last year — and continuing today — Matiang’i’s name has remained prominent online, with young people vigorously promoting him for President.

“Matiang’i, you either come out or we come for you. We need you for President in 2027, na sio tafadhali [and we’re not asking politely],” one post read.

Known for his tough stance on security, governance and public service reform, he was one of the most influential figures in the Uhuru Cabinet.

His reputation as a decisive and effective administrator has amplified the calls for his return to the national stage.

“Even Gachagua himself has acknowledged that Matiang’i has a strong track record and could be a viable candidate. Matiang’i resonates with many Kenyans—across the Coast, Northeastern, Mt Kenya and Nyanza regions,” Kioni said while rooting for Matiang’i’s candidature.

However, Matiangi is seen as “a project” of Uhuru, with some critics claiming the new political move is a ploy to propel the former head of state back to power through proxy.

His controversial past also looms large over his bid.

Controversies—including the deportation of lawyer Miguna Miguna, alleged involvement in the Sh1.5 billion Ruaraka land saga, and accusations of extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances during his tenure—threaten to overshadow his ambitions.

“If we are to follow Chapter Six [of the constitution] as it was envisaged, we wouldn’t have such candidates. Kenyans are not scrutinising those in power,” political analyst Martin Andati said.