Mystery of botched MPs’ Taiwan trip as Ruto visits, woos China

The government has remained tight-lipped about details of MPs who sought to travel to Taiwan at the same time Beijing rolled the red carpet for President William Ruto.

The botched trip could have ruined Ruto's visit to China, as the Taiwan question remains a sensitive diplomatic issue in Beijing's diplomatic engagements.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be under its control and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island.

However, Taiwan insists it is an independent State and is aggressively seeking international recognition. 

While the government is not saying why the MPs sought to travel, the botched attempt by the MPs raises serious diplomatic and political questions.

Taiwan has no diplomatic ties with Kenya, triggering questions about the timing of the trip and whether it was an attempt to undermine Ruto’s efforts in Beijing.

Who wanted the MPs to travel and for what? If it was to sabotage the head of state’s endeavours, who stood to benefit?

Did the MPs or their organiser know the implication of the visit to the Kenya-China ties?

Were they acting independently, or was there a hidden political agenda?

Diplomacy experts opine that such a move would have had serious ramifications on the relations between Nairobi and Beijing.

While Taiwan is a self-ruled island, Kenya, like most countries, adheres to the One-China Policy and does not recognise it as a sovereign state.

Kenya also supported the United Nation Resolution 2758 which undertook to restore all rights of UN representation to the People’s Republic of China.

Any official engagement with Taiwan by Kenyan officials could therefore be seen as a direct affront to Beijing, potentially damaging bilateral relations.

Moronge Obonyo, a lawyer and international relations expert, said it would have been a huge blunder, indicating that Taiwan is China’s number one foreign policy issue.

“You hit the very essence of the Chinese state when you cross the red line on this Taiwan question,” he said, adding that Kenya has to tread carefully on the matter.

“MPs should know the danger here. I don’t know why they would want to poke China. The Chinese won’t believe it was an attempt to spite the President. They will simply conclude that Kenya has condoned the breach,” Obonyo said.

Francis Mwangangi, an International Relations PhD candidate and Machakos deputy governor, restated that such visits could sever ties between the two sides.

The move would amount to Kenya directly interfering with the internal affairs of China and would be injurious to the countries’ relations.

“The implications are huge. Any dealings between Kenya and China will be affected, including the projects Chinese are doing together with Kenya,” Mwangangi said.

He went on, “If the trip happens, even China’s foreign policy towards Kenya will change. Financing could be affected. Kenyans in China would be arrested, charged with trumped up claims and deported.”

Mwangangi and other experts say MPs must be fully aware of the sensitivity of the Taiwan question.

Going by past incidents, China takes the matter seriously, with such moves leading to economic and diplomatic retaliation.

US speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei triggered tensions between Washington and Beijing. China severed ties with Lithuania over the same.

Sources intimated to the Star that the President Xi Jinping administration has been reviewing the events, having caught wind of the attempt.

Chinese authorities hold that if MPs visit Taiwan, it is considered official, which is “beyond the red line”.

The move is “distasteful” and will inflict harm to the incident-free bilateral relations of over 60 years.

“Even if the trip takes place after the Ruto visit, it will still be a blow,” an official aware of the intrigues told the Star in confidence.

Parliament and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were yet to disclose the identities of the MPs or their sponsor.

The ministry directed the Star to the Parliamentary Service Commission, saying it was the body that received the request.

Calls and SMS queries went unanswered.

It is, however, understood that National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who is the chair, slammed brakes on the plot.

Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi disclosed the trip about three weeks ago when he alleged that some forces were pushing for the parliamentary delegation.

“Looking at it, that would have been a provocative action and could have cost the country dearly,” Mudavadi stated.

“There are certain things we need to be alive to because they can have serious and devastating implications on the broader welfare of the country,”  he said.

President Ruto’s administration is looking up to China to unlock flagship legacy projects, notably the Rironi-Mau Summit highway and the SGR to Malaba.

Chinese investors are set to fund the project under a Public-Private Partnership model, a venture whose success or failure has a huge political impact on Ruto’s 2027 prospects.

Besides the upcoming project, the relations between the two sides have seen significant transformation, more so in the infrastructure sector.

Kenya-China ties have yielded projects like the Nairobi Expressway, the Standard Gauge Railway and benefits to thousands in people-to-people exchange programmes.

It is believed that the meeting, which was to coincide with Ruto’s Beijing show, was the work of China’s main rivals.

The central belief is that such acts are geared to undermine the authority of mainland China, hence breach of sovereignty.

During the visit to China, Ruto reaffirmed the position in the joint statement he issued with his host Xi.

In the writ, Kenya reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China principle and reasserted that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.

“Kenya resolutely opposes any form of “Taiwan independence” and supports all efforts by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification,” the joint statement read in part.

Kenya also recognises the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal representative of the whole of China.

Beijing’s position is that Taiwan has no legal onus to represent China in international organisations, including the World Health Organization.

“China’s Taiwan region has no basis or right to participate, unless given approval by the central government,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said.

This followed questions by journalists on why Taiwan had not been invited to the 78th World Health Assembly which opened on May 19.

For Beijing, the One-China principle is “where global opinion trends and the arc of history bends and what the greater national interests entail”.

“Taiwan independence” leads nowhere and provocations for this agenda are doomed to failure,” Lin said.

Historical context

The status of Taiwan is a complex and sensitive issue rooted in historical and geopolitical contexts.

After the Chinese civil war in 1949, the defeated nationalist government, known as Kuomintang, retreated to Taiwan.

The victorious communists founded the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. Both initially claimed to represent all of China.

In 1971, the United Nations General Assembly resolved that PRC was the sole legal representative of China at the UN.

Taiwan has functioned as a self-governing entity with its own democratic government, military and constitution.

The mainland has been pushing for a peaceful reunification, but has maintained that it is open to any other options.

The Xi administration however holds that it would be a last resort, in the event the peaceful reunification is exhausted.

China has been conducting military drills around the island, even as the situation remains an unresolved issue in international relations.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

While the PRC claims sovereignty over Taiwan, the island operates with de facto autonomy, but many don’t recognise it as a sovereign state. The international community largely acknowledges the PRC's stance diplomatically, but the situation remains unresolved, balancing delicate cross-strait relations and global geopolitical interests.