Fallout looms as Gachagua, Jubilee fight

A major political fallout that could split the opposition looms in Mt Kenya following a supremacy contest between Rigathi Gachagua and the Uhuru Kenyatta-led Jubilee brigade.

Gachagua, who launched his political machine — Democracy for the Citizens Party — two weeks ago, has opposed the revival of Jubilee, with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as its captain.

The fear in Gachagua’s team is that a strong Jubilee could weaken his grip of the region as many aspirants could seek political office through the former ruling party.

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Matiangi’s candidature has received an overwhelmingly positive reception, with opinion polls by influential bloggers from Mt Kenya putting him far ahead of his competitors.

Gachagua’s misgivings could put him at odds with the Uhuru team and potentially split the opposition.

Already, the Jubilee team, led by secretary general Jeremiah Kioni, has made it clear they will viciously fight for Jubilee’s space in Mount Kenya.

Kioni has dismissed Rigathi Gachagua’s presidential prospects, arguing that the former Deputy President lacks the national appeal necessary to secure a win.

He argues that Gachagua’s shareholding remarks alienated him from many communities.

“If you want to be a presidential candidate, you must look beyond your region and community. That is what former presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta did,” Kioni said. “You must ask yourself a fundamental question: which other community can support you beyond your own?”

While expressing support for Matiang’i, Kioni said the former CS has cultivated a broader national appeal, unlike Gachagua, whose backing remains largely confined to Mt Kenya.

“Even Gachagua himself has acknowledged that Matiang’i has a strong track record and could be a viable candidate. Matiang’i resonates with many Kenyans across the Coast, Northeastern, Mt Kenya, and Nyanza regions.”

Kioni also criticised Gachagua for allegedly urging Matiang’i to form a regional political party, saying such a move, while not unconstitutional, would undermine his chances in the 2027 elections.

Welcoming Gachagua’s DCP into the political landscape, Kioni asserted that the leadership of the new outfit fears Jubilee Party due to its legacy, which includes producing President Uhuru Kenyatta and laying the groundwork for current President William Ruto.

“Regional parties won’t take the country far. They threaten national cohesion and political stability. Jubilee is feared by these emerging parties because of its achievements and potential,” Kioni said.

Analysts warn that if the competition is not managed, it could split the opposition.

“Each of them would want to have political dominance. They want as many elected leaders as possible in their parties to give them bargaining power in the coalition,” political analyst Martin Andati said.

To Gachagua’s allies, however, Jubilee is dead and long buried.

"Is the Jubilee Party still alive? I thought it died," said Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, a close ally of Gachagua.

Instead, Gachagua is advocating for Matiang’i to establish a new party rooted in his Gusii community, arguing that such a move would galvanise his ethnic base and create conditions for a wider opposition coalition to contest against President William Ruto in 2027.

However, Jubilee has dismissed the suggestion, with the secretary general labeling it an attempt to “perpetuate his politics of shareholders in the opposition coalition.”

Sources close to Gachagua indicate growing concerns that a revitalised Jubilee could erode his influence in Mt Kenya by attracting aspirants seeking a well-established political platform.

Uhuru is constitutionally barred from running for president, having served his two terms.

Andati said Gachagua could also not be on the presidential ballot, as fielding a candidate from the region that has produced three presidents might provoke a backlash from other communities, a move that could work in Ruto's favour.

“What each of them wants is to have a big say in the opposition coalition. Gachagua and Uhuru would be forced to work together because they have a common enemy – Ruto,” Andati said.

At the launch of DCP, Gachagua brought several former Jubilee heavyweights into his new camp, including former Limuru MP Peter Mwathi (deputy chairperson), former Starehe MP Maina Kamanda (chairman of eminent persons), and former Kasarani MP Mercy Gakuya (secretary for education).

This strategic move widened the rift between the two factions and underscored Gachagua’s intention to supplant Jubilee.

Political analysts warn that the deepening feud could split the opposition and diminish its ability to mount a serious challenge against the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Gachagua’s aggressive push to establish DCP as the region’s sole political vehicle—while actively resisting Jubilee’s resurgence—has sparked resistance from within and outside his camp.

“Mt Kenya has a party called DCP. As we speak today, three million people have decamped from Jubilee to DCP in one single day,” Muriu said. “Politics is competition, and competition is healthy. We will fight.”

However, not everyone in the region agrees with Gachagua’s approach.

Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, once a close ally and adviser of Gachagua, has accused him of trying to "kill off" Jubilee Party.

“Gachagua’s call for a single party has no place in Mt Kenya,” Wambugu said. “We must remind him of the importance of allowing other parties to exist to ensure a vibrant and inclusive political landscape.

“I’m a proud member of Jubilee, which is now nine years old. I would have a serious problem with anyone proposing that we fold all existing parties into one. That kind of thinking is dictatorial.”

Cracks are also beginning to show within Gachagua’s inner circle. Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba and political activist Morara Kebaso—both previously associated with him—have publicly voiced their dissatisfaction with his leadership style.

Wamuchomba urged Gachagua to broaden his focus beyond the Mt Kenya region if he hopes to unite the country and build national support.

In a recent interview with NTV, she criticised his abrasive political tone and narrow, regionalist approach.

“For the last two years, when he was in power, he didn’t carry himself in a pleasant way that would appeal to most members to support him. His language was off-key. His conduct was sometimes off the radar,” she said.

“He doesn’t need to keep punching the air about Mt Kenya. The region already supports him — now he must rise above that and think nationally.”

In a symbolic twist, as Gachagua launched DCP, Wamuchomba was spotted holding a 'consultative' meeting with Matiang’i, suggesting possible realignments and growing intrigues as the 2027 race heats up.

The upcoming by-election in Mbeere North constituency in Embu county is expected to serve as a political battleground for both Jubilee and DCP to flex their influence and gauge grassroots support.

Meanwhile, within the broader opposition, other Mt Kenya-based parties—including Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party and Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party —further complicate efforts to build a unified front in the region.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The entry of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i into the opposition coalition could present a major unity test for leaders plotting to unseat President William Ruto in 2027. Matiang’i’s first-ever public appearance alongside key opposition figures late last month ended months of speculation over his political allegiance, but also introduced fresh dynamics into an already crowded opposition. Besides Matiang’i, several heavyweights—including Gachagua, Kalonzo, Karua, and Eugene—are eyeing the coalition’s presidential ticket.