Why Raila Odinga is no longer at ease

ODM leader Raila Odinga./FILE

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has found himself in unfamiliar political territory as allies within his ODM party push back against his political plans.

Raila, who has led ODM for the past 20 years, is for the first time facing open rebellion and heated challenges within the party, as long-time loyalists begin to turn against him.

Recent murmurs from sections of his allies have sparked turmoil within ODM, and his mixed signals about his 2027 ambitions have only fueled further anxiety.

Although Raila has insisted that his partnership with President William Ruto does not mean ODM is stepping back from the 2027 presidential race, there are signs that the alliance could evolve into a broader deal.

The ODM leader has clarified that his party is not part of the government and that ODM members appointed to ministerial positions were selected for their expertise to help stabilise the administration.

However, despite early indications that ODM might negotiate a pre-election deal with Ruto in 2027, some of Raila’s allies are now pulling away, leaving him to navigate internal confusion amid a lack of clarity on the party’s direction.

Some Raila allies say ODM will field a presidential candidate in 2027, while others have backed President William Ruto's reelection.

“I cannot be a praise-singer. We fought for a democratic constitution where people should speak freely. I urge Kenyans to tell their leaders the truth. This country will go to the dogs again if the kind of language we’re hearing continues,” he said.

On May 2, Orengo added that Kenyans must not allow leaders to become demigods who cannot be criticised.

“We must have leadership that believes in the rule of law, constitutionality, and truth,” Orengo said.

“I cannot let Kenyans or my country down by failing to speak the truth.”

Governor Anyang Nyong’o, who led ODM’s efforts during Raila’s campaign for the African Union Commission chairmanship, has also voiced concerns, recently claiming that devolution is being undermined.

On April 26, Raila maintained that there is no coalition between ODM and UDA and that their partnership is simply based on a public Memorandum of Understanding (Mou).

Raila emphasised that ODM’s cooperation with President Ruto’s UDA does not prevent party members and supporters from expressing their opinions.

“There are clear, explicit points, and I don’t see why people are bickering. When Orengo speaks, he’s doing so within the framework of the MoU between ODM and UDA. Orengo has not committed any crime — he has the democratic right to say what he’s saying,” Raila stated.

The murder of Kasipul MP Ong’ondo Were has further exposed political undercurrents threatening the stability of the broad-based government arrangement between Ruto and Raila.

On May 3, a group of ODM leaders who visited Were’s home for a fundraiser warned that Were’s death could be the final blow to the political alliance.

Led by ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, National Assembly Minority Whip Millie Odhiambo, and Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, the leaders threatened to walk out of the arrangement if the state fails to handle the matter with due seriousness.

Wanga stated that the MoU between ODM and the Kenya Kwanza government was meant to improve Kenyans’ lives, not harm them.

“Let it be known that we did not sign an MoU for assassination. The MoU was meant to improve the lives of Kenyans,” Wanga said.

Millie Odhiambo asserted that the broad-based government deal would not stop them from demanding the truth about Were’s murder.

“The person who killed Were was very conversant with government systems. The method of shooting and how he was shot tell us a lot. They must tell us who killed him,” Millie said.

Kaluma warned that the future of the collaboration depends on how the government handles the investigation.

“I want to join my fellow leaders who have said that uncovering who killed Were — and who sent them — will determine whether our collaboration in the broad-based government will continue,” Kaluma said.

He added that the government can arrest and prosecute Were’s killers.

“The government has long arms in dealing with criminals. We want to see those long arms in action,” he said.

Amid the raging turmoil, ODM leaders in government rallied the region to back Ruto during his three-day tour of Migori County.

The group led by Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, and Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi reaffirmed that the Ruto-Raila MoU still stands.

The agreement, signed last year, established a framework for broad-based government cooperation between UDA and ODM.

Junet Mohamed emphasised that ODM remains committed to the political deal signed with Ruto.

“This broad-based government — we, as ODM, signed an MoU with President William Ruto based on a ten-point agenda, and we will stick to it,” Junet said.

He criticised some ODM leaders who continue to oppose the Ruto administration, saying their views do not reflect the party’s official stance.

“Those in ODM who sometimes go overboard and want to insult the president — I remind them that our agreement never included abusing the government or the president. That’s on them,” he said during Ruto’s tour of Migori County.

Former ODM chairman and current Treasury CS John Mbadi stressed that the unity pact between Raila and Ruto is about national stability and prosperity, not individual leaders.

“If you want to understand Raila Odinga’s position, watch Dr. Oburu Odinga. Also listen to Junet Mohamed and John Mbadi. Stop paying attention to others. We are moving forward—forward ever, backwards never,” Mbadi said.

Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi added that the partnership with Ruto is a strategic move to promote national unity and tackle pressing national issues, with no plans to reverse the agreement.

“For the naysayers in our midst who think we can go backwards — they are daydreaming. We have moved on. We know who our true friends are, and we’ve resolved that this region will be part and parcel of President William Ruto’s administration,” Wandayi stated.