Raila factor and President Ruto's narrowing options

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ODM leader Raila Odinga now appears to hold a decisive card in President William Ruto’s re-election prospects, as the head of state faces diminishing political options.

Signs of opposition unity are growing more visible, fueling speculation over the formation of a broad-based alliance aimed squarely at unseating Ruto.

Insiders reveal that the strategy being explored seeks to consolidate Kenya’s leading political heavyweights into a single formidable coalition—one that would effectively isolate Ruto and leave him with limited opportunities to forge political alliances.

“The strategy the opposition is using is to lock him out of every region. He needs to figure out how he will manage this,” University Don Herman Manyora said.

This shifting political landscape has left the President with few viable partners— key among them Raila — who has been sending mixed signals on his partnership with the President in the 2027 polls.

The veteran opposition figure, with his deep-rooted support in key voting blocs, entered into a cooperation agreement with Ruto in March this year.

Manyora observed that the opposition’s ‘assailable’ strategy to pick political regional kingpins is lethal.

“If he is locked out of Mt Kenya, Eastern, Western, Gusii, then we can see his options are becoming narrower,” he said.

Yet Raila’s position remains ambiguous, as he continues to send mixed signals about the nature and longevity of the pact, keeping Ruto’s political think tanks on the edge.

“Let me tell you, do not rely on Raila. He can change in the 11th hour and you will have no place to turn to,” former Mosop MP Vincent Kipkirui recently warned, in a message aimed at Ruto.

Last month, Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang’ hinted at the party fielding a presidential candidate to face Ruto in the next polls.

“To build a political movement of the stature and nature of ODM is no mean task. ODM shall remain, and ODM shall be on the ballot in 2027. That is the plan,” the vocal lawmaker said.

Ruto’s camp has suffered notable setbacks, with parties such as the Democratic Party, Farmers Party, and the Devolution Party of Kenya formally severing ties with Kenya Kwanza coalition.

The Ruto team is also under pressure in Mt Kenya East where key leaders including former Cabinet secretaries Justin Muturi and Mithika Linturi are now leading the onslaught on Kenya Kwanza.

The President also faces mounting public backlash over unpopular policies, including high taxation and the cost of living.

ODM’s recent political manoeuvres have triggered anxiety within Ruto’s inner circle.

Raila’s key allies have ramped up criticism of the administration, while calls within ODM to field its own presidential candidate in 2027 grow louder.

In a symbolic show of unity, top opposition figures—including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-Kenya boss Eugene Wamalwa, and Linturi—held a high-level strategy meeting in Karen on Tuesday.

Others present were People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, sacked AG Muturi, and former UNCTAD secretary general Mukhisa Kituyi.

The return of former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, viewed as a close ally of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, added further weight to the opposition’s resolve.

“The meeting carries the greatest political significance in the country since the 2022 elections,” said Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, a close ally of Kalonzo.

Wambua was bold in his prediction, “This is the clearest signal yet that William Ruto will make history as Kenya’s first one-term President.”

Perhaps Ruto’s most significant headache stems from the Mt Kenya region, which was key to his 2022 victory.

His fallout with his former deputy—culminating in Gachagua’s impeachment last November—has cost him dearly in the vote-rich region.

Now emerging as the political supremo of Mt Kenya, Gachagua has intensified his efforts to lock Ruto out.

His influence is reportedly being bolstered by allies like Linturi and Muturi, who are helping consolidate support in Mt Kenya East.

Gachagua’s successor, former Interior CS Kithure Kindiki, hails from Tharaka Nithi, a strategic county in Mt Kenya East where Gachagua is gaining traction.

Sensing the shifting tides, Ruto on Tuesday met leaders from Meru to reassert his influence in the region.

“We will make whatever sacrifices necessary to make sure Ruto is a one-term president,” Gachagua declared in January, accusing the President of being “intolerant” and “dictatorial.”

Beyond Mt Kenya, the opposition appears to be organising in other regions.

Kalonzo remains a dominant figure in upper Eastern, a region he has consistently delivered to Raila in previous elections.

In Western Kenya, a new political force is coalescing around Eugene, Kituyi, and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. Matiang’i is expected to anchor the vote-rich Gusii region.

Luo Nyanza, the Coast, Northeastern and parts of Western Kenya remain firmly in Raila’s corner, further solidifying his importance as a potential kingmaker—or king—come 2027.

“Certainly, Raila will be a determining factor in Ruto’s re-election in 2027, especially given recent political developments,” said political analyst and lawyer Elias Mutuma.

According to Mutuma, Raila offers Ruto a critical lifeline, “For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West likely to vote as a bloc and now appearing to be out of reach, Raila—and his Nyanza base—offers that replacement.”

At present, Ruto retains firm control over his Rift Valley backyard and continues to command significant support in Northeastern Kenya.

The recent decree scrapping the requirement for vetting for Kenyans seeking ID cards in border counties has been a plus for him.

However, if the opposition unity drive continues to gain ground, his margin for manoeuvre could shrink dramatically.

As the 2027 race slowly takes shape, one thing is clear: President Ruto may find his political future increasingly dependent on a long-time rival whose next move remains anyone’s guess.