Anxiety in Ruto camp over Raila's 2027 bid

A potential presidential run by former Premier Raila Odinga has shaken President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza, as Raila’s ODM party has sent mixed signals about its candidate.

A group in Raila’s inner circle has insisted the opposition outfit will field a presidential candidate in 2027, which could deal a staggering blow to Ruto’s re-election bid – especially if it’s Raila himself.

The ODM stalwart is 80 years old and has run for the presidency and lost five times. He and his supporters say his victories were stolen multiple times. 

He is still wildly popular, though the fanatic support he once enjoyed has dimmed.

Raila has joined Ruto in a broad-based government, sharply criticised by some ODM veterans and many rank-and-file party members, who say there’s no real opposition left in Kenya. 

Raila himself has not said whether he was contemplating a run.

His key allies have trashed Ruto’s performance track record, accusing his government of graft, meagre development and rolling back devolution and its gains. Ruto has fought back with his achievements.

The Star has established that some insiders within Ruto’s inner circle have advised the President to cast his net wider – beyond ODM bases – where he has or had hoped to inherit Raila’s support.

Of concern to the Ruto camp is ODM’s bid to fortify itself, especially in the grassroots elections concluded in the middle of this month.

The other area of concern is Raila’s distribution of ODM nominees for appointment to top government jobs.

“From the appointments, there is a clear pattern of a man keen to retain his sway in Western, Coast and minority regions like Turkana,” a source familiar with the issue told the Star.

But apart from boardroom analysis, some Ruto’s allies have openly warned him against pegging his hopes for a second term on Raila alone. Ruto is courting other regions and groups.

“Let me tell you, do not rely on Raila. He can change in the 11th hour and you will have nowhere to turn. You are lying to yourselves [if you think otherwise],” former Mosop MP Vincent Kipkirui recently warned the President.

Ruto’s think tanks are also looking at a scenario whereby Raila may bolt and support another presidential candidate.

The former PM is talking with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who backed him in 2022 and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei of UDA expressed particular concern about a wave of verbal assaults on the President by Raila’s supporters and ‘keyboard assassins.’

“For us, the 2027 general election will come and go. We will cross that bridge when we reach there. We know ODM is Raila and Raila is ODM,” he said.

Last week, Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang’, an insider among Raila’s trusted allies, announced the ODM party will field a presidential candidate in 2027.

Kajwang’ said backing a candidate to face and hopefully unseat Ruto, was the party’s strategic plan.

“To build a political movement of the stature and nature of ODM is no mean task. ODM shall remain and ODM shall be on the ballot in 2027. That is the party’s strategic plan,” the vocal lawmaker said. 

This assertion came days after Raila hinted, on April 6, that his party would sponsor a presidential candidate.

“I did not enter into this wedding with the State to betray Kenyans. Kenya is bigger and more important than an individual… When the election comes, ODM will be in the playing field. Won’t ODM be in the field?” Raila asked during a meeting in Mombasa.

The party’s national chairperson, Gladys Wanga, was also emphatic that ODM would field candidates for all elective positions.

Kenyans elect the President, governors, senators, members of the National Assembly, woman representatives, and members of county assemblies.

“We are going to field candidates for MCAs, MPs, senators, woman reps, governors and  even the presidency,” she said in October last year.

ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna, a fierce critic of the President, has also hinted strongly that the party would field a presidential candidate.

“We exist independently as a political party and are ready to battle for power with all the other existing political parties,” he said in January.

Political observer Javas Bigambo said the increasing calls in ODM to field a presidential candidate should be both intriguing and disturbing for Ruto’s adherents.

“It should be a curious issue for Ruto’s people about the ongoing calls in ODM to have Raila run or for ODM to field a candidate,” Bigambo told the Star.

The analyst however said the calls could be a political game plan by Raila and his party to remain relevant on the political scene and raise their stature and the stakes ahead of 2027.

“The calls could be a cryptic political tactic to keep UDA people second-guessing about the motives of ODM and Raila Odinga,” he said. 

Ruto often used to call Raila “the riddle man” or “mtu wa kitendawili”.       

University don Macharia Munene said the Raila-Ruto ‘bromance’ is a temporary engagement that the President’s troops should be alive to. 

The broad-based government saved Ruto’s administration during national protests in June and July last year when demonstrators called for his removal and withdrawal of the high-tax Finance Bill. 

Ruto had to tear it up and reach out to Raila for stability.

Munene said it would be foolhardy for Ruto’s supporters to expect Raila not to run in 2027.

“Raila’s people can sacrifice anyone for Raila. Even those who say they are supporting Ruto will sacrifice him for Raila. It is a reality that Ruto should accept,” he said.

Although Raila has not publicly declared he would run for the presidency again, he is seen as the most solid and firm politician with proper grounding to face President Ruto. 

He is a democracy icon and protest leader who was jailed for years by the Daniel Moi government.

The veteran opposition has had a firm grip on key political bases across the country, making him one of Kenya’s most influential and revered politicians, despite repeatedly losing the presidential vote.

Emphatic pronouncements that the ODM Party would field a presidential candidate have been made at a time when Ruto’s troops have accused Raila’s men of blackmailing the President.

This stems from their constant attacks and scathing criticism of his government.

Former ODM acting party leader and Kisumu governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, his Siaya counterpart James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Sifuna have led the attacks on the President.

On Tuesday last week, Nyong’o accused the President of being a threat to devolution, triggering a backlash from the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

“The truth is the Ruto regime has decided to go back to pre-devolution times of the Nyayo era. The 2010 constitution is a hinderance to its (the administration’s) primitive accumulation schemes,” Nyong’o said.

Last month, Ruto and Raila signed a working agreement following the veteran opposition leader’s failed bid to clinch the African Union Commission chairmanship in the February polls.

The deal signalled a political truce that, it was thought, would likely have seen Raila and his ODM party back the President’s re-election in 2027.

Ruto is considered to be on a shaky political footing after the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and perceived failings by his administration, which has worked hard to emphasise its significant achievements.

Consequently, political pundits say he is banking on Raila, a veteran opposition leader with a firm political base, to anchor his re-election bid.

“Certainly, Raila [will determine] Ruto’s re-election in 2027, especially with the latest  development in the country’s politics,” lawyer and political observer Elias Mutuma said.

Raila comes with solid support bases necessary for Ruto to replace restive Mt Kenya, which feels betrayed by Gachagua’s impeachment late last year.

“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West – which is likely to vote as a bloc – now out, he needs a replacement, which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” Mutuma said.

Raila is a battle-scarred fighter and an astute mobiliser who enjoys the backing of key bases that could secure victory for the President, should the ODM boss opt to support Ruto.

They include Nyanza, Western, Coast, Nairobi and parts of the Northeastern and Rift Valley.

Political observer Mark Bichachi said Raila comes as a package to Ruto with other “small regional kingpins” crucial for his re-election.

“If you go to the Coast, there’s Hassan Joho [now a Cabinet Secretary] and Senate Speaker [Amason] Kingi is already on the President’s side. This is also the case with Western, which has Wycliffe Oparanya, now a CS, who is very influential,” Bichachi said.

Despite a number of positive measures and reforms, Ruto has lost popularity, especially after Gachagua’s expulsion.