Why Kalonzo is net loser in Ruto-Gachagua feud

Ever since his impeachment, Gachagua has been on the warpath with the head of state. His mission, headquartered at Wamunyoro, has been to be the kingpin of the Kikuyu community.

The grand objective is to pull Mt Kenya region away from the Kenya Kwanza coalition government.

He promised never to allow them enter into a political union without clear agreement written in black and white.

Gachagua declared on several occasions the community will partner with leaders of goodwill from other tribes to teach Ruto the lesson of his political life.

He was quick to identify the coalition party leaders in Azimio la Umoja who had been abandoned by Raila Odinga. Raila’s ODM party has since joined Ruto in the broad-based government.

The Jubilee Party, through secretary general Jeremiah Kioni declared Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka the leader of the opposition outfit. This naturally relegated Martha Karua, who had been Raila’s running mate, to the periphery.

Together with DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, they had to kowtow to the guidelines dictated by Kioni. Gachagua saw an opportunity in the simmering disquiet in the remnants of Azimio. He visited Karua at her home and delivered gifts according to Kikuyu traditions.

He also made a public apology to former President Uhuru Kenyatta. He declared Uhuru the undisputed leader of the Mt Kenya region.

He then finally announced the expansion of Gema to include the Akamba ethnic community. What might have been lost on observers is that he claimed the Akamba should rally behind Kalonzo to enhance their bargaining power.

This by default meant that Kalonzo had thus been reduced to an ethnic leader. By accepting to join the Gachagua bandwagon, he dropped all pretence to national leadership.

Gachagua had taken advantage of Kalonzo’s inability to mobilise and control his brood to box him into the Kamba ethnic corner. He was now in the same league with Eugene who was coming into the Gachagua alliance as the Luyha leader.

The former DP calculated that when the time comes for negotiations to determine the presidential candidate, he would drop the bombshell of the vote basket. If he manages to edge Ruto out of Central, then both Kalonzo’s and Eugene’s numbers cannot match his.

The visit by President Ruto to Mt Kenya has shown that Gachagua does not control the entire region. Many leaders who bore sympathy for him shortly after the impeachment have come to the realisation that on their own, they stand isolated. He is taking them on a folly trip.

A number of them, such as Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba, have come out to advise that Gachagua should stop driving the tribal agenda.

His failure to build a national profile has caused fatigue among his parliamentary supporters. His insistence on the narrative of Kikuyu martyrdom is increasingly pushing away leaders from other ethnic communities.

Gachagua has remained true to his initial mantra and philosophy of Kikuyu supremacy. The other leaders in the coalition have therefore found it difficult to convince their followers how they will benefit from the alliance. They however, have enough time at their disposal to recover lost ground.

The ex-DP has broken the accepted cardinal rules in political game play. Niccolo Machiavelli laid out elaborate advice on how to relate with the supreme leader in his treatise, The Prince. Robert Green, in his celebrated work 48 Laws of Power provides counsel on how to conceal intentions within actions.

The Greeks said in ancient philosophical writings that when the gods want to finish a leader, they withdraw wisdom from him. Gachagua’s fate is time-bound. The reality will not bypass the 2027 general election. He rose from relative obscurity to the pinnacle of national leadership like the proverbial Simon Makonde.

How he manages to evade the known path to Makonde’s end can only be a function of miracle. In the wake of his melodrama, he continues to make more enemies than friends. The biggest challenge to deal with are the domestic enemies. He will have to spend energy in warding them off, energy that would have been better spent building networks in other regions.

In sum total, he has not gained any political capital since his departure from government. There will certainly be leaders the Kikuyu community will sacrifice for their actions preceding the impeachment. Their punishment will not, however, be in appeasement of Gachagua’ tribulations. Instead it will be more to avoid and prevent such an embarrassment in future.

Since Gachagua can only be either the Kikuyu kingpin or lose the mantle altogether, Kalonzo will be the greatest and net loser politically. If the former DP manages to withstand Ruto’s stranglehold on the region, then he will be forced to run for the presidency.

If he cannot run because of legal challenges or otherwise, then he must throw his weight behind a Kikuyu candidate.

This will assure him of the mantle of being the kingmaker. In the likely event that he fails to mobilise and consolidate the region behind him, then the Mt Kenya vote basket revert to Ruto. Uhuru then reemerges as the region’s standard bearer, albeit nominally. Many leaders will emerge in fit-for-purpose political parties.

These would not affect the presidential vote in favour of Ruto significantly. In both circumstances, Gachagua cannot offer any political capital to Kalonzo. The former vice president will have to fight for his survival as the Kamba leader. He will have nobody to be running mate to for the first time since the 2010 Constitution was made operational.

Kioni, who led the initial chorus about Kalonzo being the natural leader of Azimio, has since listened to his party leader. The discussion about Fred Matiang’i’s presidential bid is mostly within the Jubilee Party. Presidential campaigns in Kenya have become resource-intensive.

Kalonzo has no known network that is capable of mobilising the huge amount of funds necessary for such an undertaking. The current relationship between Raila and the President benefits Ruto more, whether or not Raila stands in 2027.

By taking advantage of Gachagua’s political predicaments, Kalonzo has ended up with the short end of the stick. 2027 may mark his final appearance on Kenya’s political stage as a tired actor with mismatched steps in the dancing script.

The writer is a political and policy analyst