Numbers in Kalonzo-Gachagua, Ruto-Raila ’27 poll showdown

President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga have left no doubt they will rally together in the 2027 presidential election, bringing into sharp focus the numbers that come with their pact.

The two were the main contenders of the 2022 presidential race, netting more than 14 million votes.

President Uhuru Kenyatta backed Raila in the election.

Considering elections in Kenya are decided largely by regional factors, Ruto, with Raila support, may bag Rift Valley and Nyanza votes.

Assuming the regions support them almost to a man, IEBC data shows the duo would have a head start of seven million votes if they stick together until 2027.

Rift Valley, as per data held by Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC), had 4,032,021 voters in the 2022 election roll.

The count doesn’t include Nakuru, which had 1,054,856 votes, and Laikipia’s 263,012.

In teaming up with Nyanza, Ruto would have consolidated the western Kenya bloc to his favour.

The two could relive the 2007 contest, where they gave the Mwai Kibaki team a run for their money culminating into the grand coalition in which Raila served as Prime Minister.

Raila, who has an undeniably loyal mass of followers, also commands the Coast, now spiced by the appointment of Hassan Joho as Cabinet secretary, said.

His Nyanza backyard had 3.1 million voters, with Kisii and Nyamira contributing 960,293. Pundits say Ruto and Raila, in coming together and retaining ties with National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, could bag Western too.

The region’s four counties had a combined 2.2 million votes in the 2022 register, hence could tip the broad-based side towards the nine million mark.

The appointment of Wycliffe Oparanya as Cooperatives CS is seen as pacifying the Luhya community and almost ending the elusive unity of the region.

“Kalenjins, Luos and Luhyas working together is a formidable side that can never be taken for granted,” political analyst and governance specialist Brian Mutie said.

Former DP Rigathi Gachagua’s allies, however, disagree the pact would produce the much-needed numbers, saying the ground has shifted against the ‘broad-based’ side.

Kiambu Senator Karung’o Thang’wa said the President and his newfound ally would be easily beaten by a unified opposition.

“They [Ruto and Raila] cannot succeed despite joining forces. The ground has shifted to their disadvantage, especially in Mt Kenya, which gave Ruto four million votes,” he said.

The senator argued Mt Kenya was the region that leaped Ruto ahead of the pack and “his Rift Valley backyard just topped the difference to cross the 50 per cent plus one mark”.

Mt Kenya West had 3.1 million voters in 2022, while Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s Mt Kenya East backyard had 1.3 million, summing up to 4.4 million, minus Laikipia.

Mt Kenya (West) comprises Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu, while Mt Kenya East or Upper Eastern, which covers Meru, Embu and Tharaka counties, had 1.3 million voters in 2022.

“Without Mt Kenya, Ruto and Raila would be starting at five million, that is three million if he sweeps Rift Valley and Raila backyard’s two million, considering the situation that is prevailing in Kisii,” Thang’wa said.

The lawmaker said Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s side, where Gachagua is also a luminary, would easily carry the day.

“Our side has the five million votes of Mt Kenya and the almost two million from Ukambani, meaning they would be starting at seven million votes, two million more than Ruto and Raila’s,” he said.

Thang’wa said the new generation of voters would also be a determinant factor, exuding confidence Gen Zs would back Kalonzo’s side.

“This is not going to be easy. It is almost impossible that Ruto would win in 2027,” the senator said.

Gachagua allies also believe the pact would cause a ripple effect in the Kenya Kwanza team, saying the absence of Wetang’ula and Musalia at the launch of the pact was telling.

“These two [Ruto and Raila] have excluded their people. It is true they were top contenders but have left out major supporters,” Murang’a Senator Joe Nyuttu said.