President William Ruto’s administration is proposing a major increase in security spending ahead of next year’s general election.
Defence, police and intelligence services are among the biggest beneficiaries of a Sh354 billion expansion in ministerial budgets for the next spending cycle.
The National Treasury, according to the latest disclosures, proposes an additional Sh42 billion for Defence, Sh10 billion for the National Police Service, Sh3 billion for Internal Security and Sh4 billion for the National Intelligence Service.
The increases come as the government prepares for an election year when security agencies will be expected to maintain law and order during campaigns, protect voters and polling stations and respond to potential violence.
Security is a critical part of the electoral process, with the conduct of campaigns, the safety of voters and the credibility of polling dependent partly on the ability of state agencies to prevent intimidation, contain unrest and protect election officials.
Defence is projected to receive Sh294 billion, up from Sh252 billion, while the National Police Service allocation rises from Sh147 billion to Sh157 billion.
The Internal Security department is set to receive Sh65 billion, up from Sh62 billion, while the National Intelligence Service budget rises to Sh68 billion from Sh64 billion.
The proposals are contained in the Draft 2027 Budget Policy Statement, which raises total ministerial expenditure from Sh2.9 trillion to Sh3.26 trillion in the 2027-28 financial year.
The proposed increases will also finance planned recruitment across the security agencies, including 10,000 police officers, 1,000 non-uniformed officers and 400 cadets in the next financial year.
The government further plans to recruit 3,000 prison officers, alongside 910 probation officers and 341 state counsels.
The proposed increases would expand funding for security operations and personnel as the country approaches the next election.
Police chiefs, during a meeting in Nairobi on Tuesday assured Kenyans they will be up to the task to ensure the 2027 polls are adequately secure.
“As security agencies, we work together...from the NIS, from the police, from the independent commissions, from all units that work for the betterment of your safety and my safety as well,” Deputy Inspector General Gilbert Masengeli said.
However, the draft estimates do not specify how much of the additional security funding will be dedicated directly to election preparedness.
The spending plan comes as the government faces competing demands to finance public services, meet its debt obligations and address unemployment while preparing for the election.
Education is the other major beneficiary of the proposed spending expansion, with its allocation projected to rise by Sh73 billion.
The Teachers Service Commission accounts for the largest share of the increase, with its budget ceiling set to rise from Sh424 billion to Sh477 billion, an additional Sh53 billion.
Higher education allocations are projected to increase from Sh163 billion to Sh173 billion, while basic education funding is set to rise by Sh4 billion to Sh140 billion.
Of the basic education allocation, Sh59.8 billion is earmarked for free secondary education, while Sh8.4 billion is set aside for free primary education.
The proposed increases come as the government continues implementing the Competency-Based Education system and expanding the teaching workforce.
The Ruto administration intends to recruit 24,000 secondary school teachers on permanent and pensionable terms in the next financial year.
This is expected to follow the ongoing absorption of 20,000 intern teachers into permanent employment under the current budget.
Health is also set for a substantial increase, with the sector’s allocation projected to rise by Sh52 billion to Sh229.2 billion.
The increase is largely driven by a 127 per cent rise in the Curative and Reproductive Health programme, which supports Social Health Authority claims and the delivery of Universal Health Coverage.
The additional funding comes as the government seeks to expand access to healthcare under its flagship health reforms.
The Energy, Infrastructure and ICT sector is projected to receive Sh582.4 billion, an increase of Sh52.1 billion, or 9.8 per cent.
Within the sector, the Transport department is set for an additional Sh21.6 billion, largely to support the expansion of marine and rail transport networks.
Housing allocations are projected to increase by Sh7.2 billion, while roads are set to receive an additional Sh34 billion.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is also set for a Sh3 billion increase, taking its proposed allocation to Sh27.9 billion to support the management of electoral processes.
The increase comes as the electoral agency prepares for the 2027 polls, which will require preparations for voter registration, procurement of election materials, deployment of technology and management of polling operations.
State House allocations are projected to rise by Sh1.6 billion to Sh15.1 billion, from Sh13.5 billion in the current financial year.
The Office of the President is set for an additional Sh500 million, while Parliament’s proposed allocation rises by Sh1.5 billion to Sh52 billion.
The Judiciary is projected to receive Sh30 billion, up from Sh29 billion, while the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission is set for an additional Sh300 million.
The Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions is allocated an additional Sh600 million.
The proposed increases to governance and oversight institutions come alongside the wider expansion in ministerial spending.
However, the spending plan will not benefit all levels of government and sectors equally.
County governments are projected to receive Sh473 billion, down from Sh502 billion in the current financial year, a reduction of Sh29 billion.
Of the proposed allocation, Sh440 billion is for the equitable share, while Sh32 billion is earmarked for conditional allocations.
The proposed reduction comes as counties contend with pending bills amounting to Sh156.8 billion and wage bills that exceed the 35 per cent fiscal responsibility threshold.
The State Department for Devolution is also set for a Sh4 billion cut, with its allocation projected to fall to Sh8.1 billion.
Agriculture faces a reduction of Sh2.8 billion, while the blue economy is set to lose Sh3.1 billion under the draft estimates.
Social Protection is projected to grow by only 1.7 per cent, equivalent to Sh1.8 billion, despite concerns over drought and the risks associated with El Niño conditions highlighted in the budget statement.
The proposed spending priorities also come against the backdrop of heavy debt obligations.
Interest payments alone are projected at Sh1.45 trillion, comprising Sh1.15 trillion for domestic lenders and Sh306 billion for external lenders.
The Treasury estimates a funding gap of about Sh1.4 trillion, which it plans to finance through borrowing.
Public debt is projected to rise to Sh15.7 trillion in the coming financial year, comprising Sh6.4 trillion in external debt and Sh9.1 trillion in domestic debt, according to the figures provided in the draft.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The proposed budget presents the Ruto administration with a balancing act as it seeks to increase security, education and health spending while financing infrastructure, meeting debt obligations and responding to pressure on county services. The proposals will be subject to the budget-making process at the National Assembly before allocations are finalised for the 2027-28 financial year.
