Linda Mwananchi team in Thika on Sunday
The rapid rise of the Linda Mwananchi movement is complicating the united opposition's strategic calculations as speculation mounts over a possible alliance between the two.
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What started as an “ODM rebels” group has rapidly evolved into a prominent political platform that is attracting political heavyweights from the backyards of key opposition figures.
While the two groups have vowed to work together, questions remain as to whether the movement will seek a place on the presidential ticket, either as the candidate or running mate.
Rebel ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the face of the movement.
The latest high-profile entrant into the Sifuna camp is Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata.
Former LSK President Faith Odhiambo and former Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter have also joined the camp.
Interestingly, leaders allied to Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DCP’s Rigathi Gachagua and Jubilee’s Fred Matiang’i are consistently part of the group’s entourage.
Analysts say the expansion of Linda Mwananchi is increasingly complicating discussions around a possible opposition ticket for 2027.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua warned that the addition of Linda Mwananchi to the opposition introduces more interests that must be accommodated, risking internal disruption.
Mokua said there will be a need to develop a strategy for managing the expectations of a larger team as well as those of its supporters.
“You will have more people in the room and, even after managing their expectations, you will need another strategy to manage the expectations of their followers. What is agreed in the boardroom may be rejected by the followers,” Mokua noted.
Critically, he said, Linda Mwananchi was born out of the need to bring in “fresh air”.
“Now, we are seeing them joining hands with the old guard, who have been there and are part of the problem. It is likely there will be some disgruntled supporters,” he said by phone.
Additionally, he said, any boardroom agreement aimed at accommodating the demands of the Linda Mwananchi camp could disenfranchise some principals within the united opposition.
“You might have principals who wanted to be running mates, and that position goes elsewhere. They are likely to leave and even run on their own,” he noted.
Apart from Kalonzo, Gachagua and Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua and Justin Muturi are also eyeing the opposition ticket.
Linda Mwananchi also comes with its own set of leaders, including Siaya Governor James Orengo.
Within opposition circles, there is growing talk that Linda Mwananchi may demand a significant stake in any coalition arrangement, including consideration for the running mate position should the opposition settle on a joint presidential candidate.
Such a scenario would inevitably disrupt ongoing negotiations within the opposition and potentially disadvantage some of the coalition’s established principals, whose supporters expect representation at the highest level of the ticket.
As Linda Mwananchi expands its footprint across the country, concerns are also emerging within established opposition parties over divided loyalties and competing political interests.
Those tensions were laid bare on Tuesday when Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni took issue with party officials openly associating with political formations outside the party.
“How is it that some NEC [National Executive Committee] members can openly endorse other presidential candidates, while others work hand in hand with our political competitors without consequence?” Kioni posed in a series of social media posts.
Kioni said some party members were facing intimidation despite remaining loyal to Jubilee and warned against efforts to weaken the party’s structures.
“Political parties are not built overnight. It has taken years of sweat, blood, commitment and hard work to build these structures. Do those seeking to dismantle them today truly understand what it took to put them in place?” he asked.
Although Kioni did not mention specific officials, his remarks came weeks after Njoroge used a Linda Mwananchi rally in Machakos to urge Kalonzo and Sifuna to provide direction on the opposition’s strategy heading into the 2027 elections.
The comments raised eyebrows given that Jubilee has already endorsed Matiang’i as its preferred presidential candidate.
Njoroge was unavailable for comment when contacted by the Star.
Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, however, interpreted Kioni’s remarks as part of a broader contest for influence within the opposition, particularly in the Mt Kenya region.
“It is all political games and flexing within the opposition, especially in Mt Kenya. Gachagua does not want to see any other politically independent leaders in the region,” Wambugu said.
“The directive is to cut Kioni down to size or push him out. It is unfortunate that he feels betrayed.”
“After his 45 days in hibernation, Gachagua will declare Kalonzo as the opposition presidential candidate. The rest of us in opposition are expected to align with this declaration. No questions.”
While the Star could not independently verify the claims, Gachagua has previously expressed discomfort with Jubilee’s presence in Mt Kenya politics.
Relations between his camp and Kioni — and by extension Jubilee — appeared to improve following a rapprochement in March.
A strong Jubilee in Mt Kenya would ultimately affect DCP’s stake at the negotiating table.
The growing influence of Linda Mwananchi is also beginning to eat into the traditional support bases of the united opposition.
Besides Kang'ata, Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo has become increasingly associated with the movement, while Mavoko MP Patrick Makau of Wiper has intensified his political activities under the Linda Mwananchi banner as he positions himself for the Machakos governorship race.
For some opposition leaders, however, the movement’s growth does not necessarily threaten broader opposition unity.
Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji, a close ally of Gachagua, argued that despite the emergence of new formations, Linda Mwananchi remains firmly within the anti-Ruto camp.
“Kang'ata actually said he had told Sifuna and the team to look for Wamunyoro. If he had joined them fully, he would have said, ‘We will’,” Mukunji said.
“Whether Kang'ata joins Linda Mwananchi or any other formation, he has already made it clear that he is not pro-Ruto.”
Mukunji described Kang'ata as one of the country’s most strategic politicians, capable of navigating shifting political currents.
“If there is a political genius, it is Kang'ata,” he said. “He knows when to align, when to speak, when to decamp and even when to write letters.”
Yet the bigger question is whether Linda Mwananchi remains a pressure group within the coalition, evolves into an independent political vehicle, or becomes a kingmaker capable of influencing the shape of the opposition ticket.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The rise of Linda Mwananchi has transformed it from a fringe ODM dissident movement into a significant player in opposition politics. Its growing appeal across party lines is broadening the anti-Ruto coalition while also complicating negotiations over leadership, power-sharing and the 2027 presidential ticket.
As more influential figures join the movement, established opposition principals face the challenge of accommodating new interests without alienating their own supporters. The movement’s trajectory will likely determine whether it becomes a unifying force within the opposition or a source of fragmentation ahead of the 2027 elections.
