The pending High Court decision on the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is shaping up to be more than a legal matter.
The decision could significantly redraw the political calculations in the opposition, particularly for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and the broader United Opposition.
At first glance, if the court upholds the impeachment, the political landscape may remain largely unchanged. Gachagua would remain locked out of elective politics, while he would still have the option to appeal, limiting his immediate influence to that of a regional political figure rather than a national contender.
In such a scenario, Kalonzo and his allies would have more room to consolidate the opposition without the pressure of accommodating a heavyweight from the Mt Kenya region with presidential ambitions.
This outcome would, in effect, preserve the current balance in the opposition.
Coalition talks would likely proceed with fewer competing centres of power, allowing leaders like Kalonzo to position themselves more clearly in the race to lead the anti-government front in 2027.
However, the equation shifts dramatically if the courts overturn the impeachment.
An acquittal would immediately restore Gachagua’s eligibility to run for office, thrusting him back into the centre of national politics and complicating opposition dynamics.
With the legal cloud lifted, he would not just return as a regional kingpin but as a potential candidate with bargaining power.
Such a development is likely to trigger tensions in the United Opposition.
Gachagua would almost certainly demand a place at the coalition’s top table. Whether or not he ultimately runs for President, his renewed political currency and legitimacy would give him leverage to insist on being part of the ticket or, at the very least, a key decision-maker in how that ticket is structured.
This presents a delicate balancing act for Kalonzo. Having long positioned himself as a senior figure in the opposition, and having secured Gachagua’s endorsement, his re-entry into the presidential equation could dilute his influence and complicate his own ambitions.
Second, Gachagua’s presence would intensify internal competition over coalition positions. With the possibility of being on the ballot, he is likely to raise his stakes in negotiations, pushing for favourable terms not just for himself but also for his political base in the Mt Kenya region.
Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni has openly said he believes Gachagua will be on the ballot, and in that case, “Kalonzo and Matiang’i must ask themselves where they will be.”
Even if he opts not to run, his negotiating power would remain significant. He could demand a decisive say in the distribution of key positions, including the presidential ticket, running mate slot and other top offices.
This influence is unlikely to stop at the top tier. It could cascade down to negotiations over parliamentary seats, with Gachagua expected to push for a larger share for his allies.
Such demands could strain already fragile coalition talks, especially in regions where multiple opposition figures are competing for influence.
The situation is further complicated by the Linda Mwananchi team, which has declared its intention to work with the United Opposition.
While this expands the coalition’s reach and adds its weight, it also presents another layer of negotiation and potential friction.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna on Thursday maintained that they have realised the only way to dislodge Ruto from power is through a united front.
“Let me tell you, Rigathi Gachagua, we as Linda Mwananchi have resolved that we will not allow to be used to allow Ruto to secure a second term,” Sifuna said on Thursday during the funeral of Kanini Kega’s mother in Nyeri.
“We are convinced that there is no other formula other than a united ticket against William Ruto.”
“So. Whatever needs to be done, it must be done. If it is to forgive each other, let’s do so. But we can’t give Ruto any space to get that seat back”, he added, explaining the circumstances in which he and ODM backed Gachagua’s impeachment.
With more actors at the table, aligning interests becomes increasingly difficult. Gachagua’s potential return would only heighten this complexity as different factions jostle to secure political space ahead of 2027.
In this context, what may appear as a legal victory for Gachagua could translate into a political headache for the opposition.
