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The simmering rivalry between Jubilee Party and DCP is threatening to hand President William Ruto’s UDA an advantage in the upcoming Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.
The mini-poll has attracted candidates from former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP and Martha Karua’s People's Liberation Party (PLP).
The death of area MP David Kiaraho occasioned the July 16 by-election.
The crowded opposition field has exposed growing cracks among parties seeking to dominate Mt Kenya politics ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Analysts now warn that the divisions could split votes and benefit the ruling party, which is keen to make a political statement in the region.
The contest comes at a time when UDA has been enjoying a string of victories in recent by-elections, strengthening President Ruto’s political foothold across different regions.
On Thursday, UDA added another parliamentary seat to its tally after winning the Emurua Dikirr by-election.
UDA candidate David Keter, popularly known as Dollarline, garnered 18,266 votes to defeat DCP’s Vincent Kibet Rotich, who received 10,760 votes.
The ruling party has previously secured victories in Mbeere North, Banissa, Malava and Isiolo South, boosting confidence within UDA ranks ahead of the Ol Kalou race.
The Ol Kalou by-election is expected to provide a major political test for both Jubilee Party and DCP as the two camps compete for influence in Mt Kenya.
While Jubilee is keen to defend the seat it won during the 2022 General Election, DCP views the contest as an opportunity to prove its growing popularity in the region following Gachagua’s fallout with President Ruto.
Jubilee has unveiled Wilson Kigwa as its candidate and insists the constituency should remain under the party’s control because the Kiaraho was elected on a Jubilee ticket.
In a statement, the party said it remained committed to protecting the late MP’s development legacy and preserving its political support base in the constituency.
“It is important to remember that the late Honourable MP served under the Jubilee Party ticket, and we remain committed to protecting and advancing the legacy of service, development and people-centred leadership that he stood for,” Jubilee said.
The party has positioned itself as the custodian of Kiaraho’s political legacy while seeking to maintain relevance in a region where its dominance has gradually declined following the rise of UDA and emerging political formations.
On the other hand, Gachagua’s DCP has settled on former MCA Sammy Ngotho as its flagbearer after a competitive nomination process that attracted several aspirants.
The move underscores Gachagua’s determination to establish DCP as the dominant political force in Mt Kenya and challenge the influence of both UDA and Jubilee in the region.
Gachagua’s allies view the by-election as an opportunity to demonstrate that he still commands significant grassroots support despite his impeachment and deteriorating relationship with President Ruto.
Speaking during Kiaraho’s funeral service, Gachagua maintained that his popularity in the region remained intact despite recent political setbacks.
“The people of Mt Kenya still love me. I am still in people’s hearts,” Gachagua said.
At the same time, Martha Karua’s PLP has intensified efforts to establish itself in the region after unveiling Ndirangu Martin Wambugu, popularly known as Tinga Tinga, as its candidate.
Karua announced the move through a statement welcoming the candidate to the party and expressing confidence in his bid.
“Party leader Hon Martha Karua today welcomed Ndirangu Martin Wambugu (Tinga Tinga) to PLP. He joins as the party’s candidate for the upcoming Ol Kalou Constituency by-election. Karibu PLP,” Karua said.
The entry of multiple opposition-allied candidates has heightened fears of vote splitting, a scenario political analysts say could hand UDA victory in the closely watched race.
UDA has already intensified campaigns in the constituency after Samuel Muchina Nyagah emerged victorious in a tightly contested party nomination exercise.
Nyagah garnered 3,221 votes to defeat George Wambugu Kanuri, who received 3,077 votes, in primaries that attracted 10 aspirants seeking the ruling party ticket.
UDA leaders are optimistic that divisions within the opposition could ease the party’s path to victory in a constituency traditionally associated with Jubilee and opposition-leaning politics.
Political observers say the by-election is increasingly shaping up as a proxy battle between allies of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Gachagua’s camp, which has been aggressively mobilising support through DCP across the Mt Kenya region.
The outcome is expected to determine whether Jubilee can retain influence in its traditional stronghold or whether Gachagua’s new political movement can successfully reshape the region’s political landscape.
Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni has already urged opposition parties to unite behind Jubilee and avoid fragmenting votes.
“If the opposition goes into the by-election divided, then UDA will benefit from the split vote. We must rally behind one candidate,” Kioni said.
According to Kioni, failure to back a single candidate could hand UDA an easy victory and weaken the opposition’s bargaining power ahead of the 2027 polls.
The Ol Kalou race has also revived debate within opposition circles on whether parties should prioritise coalition-building or focus on strengthening individual political identities before the next General Election.
Analysts warn that without a coordinated strategy, the opposition risks repeating the scenario witnessed in the Mbeere North by-election, where UDA capitalised on divisions among rival parties to secure victory.
