Weatherman announces end of long rains, beginning of cold season

Acting director of meteorological services Edward Muriuki

The ongoing heavy rains will end anytime after next week, the weatherman has said.

Edward Muriuki, the acting director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, said the rains would likely continue during the first half of May in many regions, but will weaken in the second half.

He added that this is normal because May traditionally marks the end of the long rains season in most parts of Kenya.

“The outlook for May indicates that the second half of the month is likely to be drier than average, implying the cessation of the March-April-May 2026 rainfall season over much of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands and Northeastern Kenya,” he said in a statement.

“The ‘Long Rains’ end in May because the main rain-producing zone near the equator, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, shifts northwards as the sun moves into the Northern Hemisphere. This shift reduces moisture convergence over Kenya, weakening rainfall systems and allowing drier conditions to set in,” he added.

The announcement came as KenGen assured Kenyans its hydropower dams remained within controlled operational thresholds and are unlikely to flood.

Managing director and CEOPeter Njenga said there was no cause for alarm because all dams were operating within safe parameters, with controlled releases in place where necessary.

“Hydropower remains among the country’s most economical energy source, and the increased output may contribute to reduced reliance on thermal generation, a shift that could ease electricity costs for consumers,” Njenga said.

However, he cautioned communities living downstream, particularly along the Tana River to avoid riverbanks and remain attentive to guidance from local officials as rainfall persists.

Separately, the Met boss said temperatures would begin dropping in June, with both daytime and nighttime temperatures becoming colder in many areas.

 “June is the climatological start of the cold and dry season in Kenya. Several parts of the country, especially the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley and the Southeastern Lowlands, are likely to start experiencing cool and cloudy days,” Muriuki said.

He advised people in counties such as Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kericho, Bomet, Uasin Gishu and Narok to prepare for chilly mornings and cloudy conditions.

July is expected to be even colder.

“July is expected to be the peak of the cold and dry season. Cold and cloudy days are likely to persist over several parts of the country. The cloudiness may be accompanied by light rains and fog,” Muriuki said.

However, the Met department said average temperatures across the May-June-July period are still likely to remain warmer than normal in most parts of the country because of global warming trends.

The forecast comes as floods and landslides linked to the ongoing long rains continue to kill people, destroy roads and displace thousands of families across the country.

At least 18 people have died in the latest wave of flooding and landslides, while more than 54,000 households have been affected nationwide, according to police and disaster agencies.

The department said despite the rains ceasing this month in most places, the Lake Victoria Basin, parts of the Rift Valley, northwestern Kenya and the Coast will continue to receive rainfall in smaller amounts.

Turkana and Samburu counties in northwestern Kenya are expected to continue receiving some rainfall into June, alongside counties around Lake Victoria and parts of the Coast.

According to the forecast, counties in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin, including Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Siaya, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi and Trans Nzoia, are likely to receive near-average rainfall in May.

Heavy rainfall events are expected in several parts of these counties during the first half of the month.

Counties in the Rift Valley region, such as Nakuru, Narok, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo and West Pokot are also expected to receive near-average rainfall, with heavy downpours likely in some areas early in the month.

In the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi counties, rainfall is expected to remain near average in most places.

However, eastern parts of Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties are likely to receive below-average rainfall.

“The Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Coast and Northwestern Kenya are likely to experience near-average rainfall,” Muriuki said.

“Heavy rainfall events are likely to occur in several parts of these regions during the first half of the month,” he added.