Which way Mbogo? Is ex-MP mulling ditching Ruto's UDA?

Former Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo at Kongowea Social Hall on Saturday / BRIAN OTIENO

UDA secretary general Hassan Omar and former Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo at the Hustler Center in Nyali on March 18 / BRIAN OTIENO

BY BRIAN OTIENO @Yobramos4                                Sunday, May 3, 2026

Former Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo has set tongues wagging with recent actions pointing to a politician keen on a different path in his bid to become Mombasa governor.

The question on many residents' minds is whether Mbogo is planning to ditch the ruling party United Democratic Alliance of President William Ruto.

Pundits say he might be looking for an exit strategy, with the fear that ODM might bulldoze the broad-based arrangement into zoning so as to have a field day in Mombasa.

Political analyst Dzombo Mbaru said the broad-based arrangement has been rattled by the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga with Ruto now having his way in the Coast.

Mbaru said Ruto has asserted himself more at the Coast after the death of Raila forcing parties like PAA of Senate Speaker Amason Kingi to fold.

Mbaru opines that Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa counties are already locked and he does not see any change happening with regards to the governor positions.

“President Ruto wants the Coast region’s votes and does not want to disturb the politics very much. That is why he insisted on the folding of parties like PAA,” Mbaru said.

Currently, ODM controls three counties of Mombasa, Kilifi and Tana River.

ANC, which also folded to join UDA, controls Lamu while the ruling party has strong foothold in Kwale.

In Mombasa, Mbogo has strong grassroots support in Kisauni but has since been expanding to Jomvu and Likoni, two areas which he has frequented recently.

The former Kisauni MP had been branding his meetings with UDA colours but he has since stopped.

The last time he addressed a gathering with UDA branded merchandise was on April 19 in Likoni when he met grassroots women.

It is in this meeting that the first statement of intent was given.

For long, it had been assumed that he would deputise UDA secretary general Hassan Omar in the race for Mombasa governor in 2027.

The two had previously been attending meetings together although both had declared their intentions to unseat Governor Abdulswamad Nassir of ODM.

All along, Mbogo had not publicly denied this view.

Instead, he had been going about his way, drumming up support for an intended bid that had been overshadowed by the noise in the broad-based arrangement.

It was generally assumed Mbogo had become one of Omar’s inner circle.

But one of his trusted aides said the former legislator has never been a close confidante of Omar.

“Mbogo being there was the order of the boss (President Ruto) himself. The boss recognises Mbogo’s strong grassroots support and that is what he cherishes,” the aide told the Star.

“The boss said the two should work together to look for the Mombasa votes. You remember in the last election, UDA got 44 per cent of the votes in Mombasa? He wants that number to go up.” 

In the April 19 Likoni meeting, Mbogo for the first time publicly declared he would not be anybody’s deputy.

“Do not listen to propaganda that Mbogo will be a deputy. Whose deputy? I am Ali Menza Mbogo, a man from Kisauni,” he said.

On Thursday, Mbogo posted a cryptic message complete with a logo that did not have UDA colours.

“Hakuna kurudi nyuma (There's no turning back) ,” he wrote.

The logo indicated he is in the run for governorship in 2027.

On Sunday, Mbogo however told the Star he is firmly in UDA and has not contemplated ditching the ruling party.

He reaffirmed his position, saying he will not be anybody’s deputy. “Let me ask you. With all the ground work I have done for four years, you want me to leave it to somebody?” he said on the phone.

Mbogo said all the talk about him leaving UDA is propaganda peddled by people afraid of his strong wave.

“The only person who can tell me to let go is only the boss. If the boss has not told me anything, what does that mean? It means I should continue,” Mbogo said.

“He is the only one who can sit me down. Nobody else.” 

Asked about his meetings without UDA colours, Mbogo said that could be logistical issues.

He said merchandise come from the party headquarters and sometimes there could be challenges that prevent them from arriving in time. “If I ask them for the merchandise, because I have actually asked for them, and they do not arrive in time, that does not stop me from me from holding my meetings,” Mbogo said.

He said meetings go on without branded colours everywhere in the country.

“The likes of Sifuna hold huge rallies. Do you see them in ODM colours? At the end of the day, I am selling my brand Ali Menza Mbogo. Where I will decide I will go, the people will go with me,” he said.

Ends...

Instant Analysis:

In 2017, Mbogo won the Kisuani MP seat on a Wiper ticket. He then chose to go for the governor seat in 2022, first on a Wiper ticket before eventually accepting to deputize Mike Sonko, who was not allowed to be in the ballot in the end following his impeachment as Nairobi governor. Since then, Mbogo joined UDA and is now the LAPSSET Corridor Development Authority chair.