Heavy rains advisory ending but flooding risks remain high, warns Red Cross

Red Cross warns that saturated ground and blocked waterways could trigger further flooding. /LEAH MUKANGAI

Even as the heavy rains that have battered large parts of the country begin to subside, the Kenya Red Cross is urging Kenyans to remain vigilant, warning that the threat of flooding is far from over.

The emergency response agency said the reduction in rainfall expected from Monday does not eliminate the risk, particularly because the ground across many regions is already saturated after weeks of persistent rain.

Police records show that at least 43 people have died across the country following the devastating floods, with 26 of the deaths reported in Nairobi, the area hardest hit by the extreme weather.

Many of the victims were swept away by fast-moving floodwaters, while others drowned inside their vehicles.

Government officials say nine people remain unaccounted for, while more than 50,000 people have been displaced nationwide.

By Sunday evening, normalcy had begun returning in many affected areas as residents and business owners took stock of the destruction, which includes wrecked vehicles, damaged homes and disrupted livelihoods.

Despite signs of improvement, the Kenya Red Cross cautioned that conditions remain dangerous.

“The weather advisory issued by Meteorological Department on March 3 is still active until March 9. The ground is already saturated and flooding may still occur in some areas. Please remain alert,” the agency said.

It urged members of the public to remain cautious and report emergencies through the toll-free number 1199.

According to the Kenya Meteorological Department’s seven-day forecast issued on March 3, the peak of the moderate to heavy rainfall was expected between March 4 and March 7, with the heaviest downpours recorded on March 5 and March 6.

Regions projected to experience the most intense rainfall included the Central Highlands, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, Southeastern Lowlands, the Coast, Western Kenya, and parts of Northeastern and Northwestern Kenya.

On Sunday, March 8, the meteorological department issued a fresh weather update for the Nairobi metropolitan area, warning that moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms could continue until Monday, March 9, at 7pm.

“The expected rains are likely to still cause flooding as the soils are saturated from prolonged wet spells since February,” the agency warned.

Nairobi, which was the epicentre of Friday’s severe flooding, is expected to experience widespread showers with isolated heavier pockets ranging between 40mm and 100mm.

Areas likely to receive the heaviest rainfall include southern Embakasi, Kibra, Makadara, Kamukunji, and parts of Roysambu, Westlands, Dagoretti and Kasarani.

Neighbouring Kiambu county is also projected to receive showers in areas such as Gatundu, Thika, Juja, Ruiru, Limuru, Kikuyu, Kabete and Githunguri.

Similar conditions are expected across parts of Kajiado county and in sections of Machakos county including Kathiani, Machakos Town, Matungulu and Yatta.

Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said the current rains are part of a prolonged wet spell that began in mid-February 2026.

He explained that continuous rainfall since then has caused widespread soil saturation, significantly increasing the likelihood of flooding.

“In meteorological terms, 20mm rainfall equals approximately 20 litres of water per square metre, a volume capable of quickly saturating soils, overwhelming drainage systems and causing flooding in low-lying areas,” the department said in a statement.

The latest forecast shows that continued heavy rainfall is expected in the Lake Victoria Basin counties of Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori, as well as in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and several Rift Valley counties including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet and Narok.

The Central Highlands — including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Nyandarua and Laikipia — are also expected to continue receiving rainfall.

Similar conditions are forecast in the Southeastern Lowlands covering Machakos, Kajiado, Makueni, Kitui and Taita Taveta, as well as the coastal counties of Kwale, Mombasa and Kilifi.

“The department will continue to closely monitor the evolving weather situation and provide timely updates to support preparedness and response efforts,” Muriuki said.

Kenya Red Cross Secretary General Ahmed Idris attributed the scale of flooding witnessed in Nairobi partly to human activity, saying encroachment on waterways and blocked drainage channels have worsened the situation.

Speaking on Citizen TV, Idris said many developments have altered the natural movement of water.

“The science is not complicated; you block the movement of water then water will build up and cause flooding upstream and that is what is happening in the city. We have built on waterways,” he said.

He said one immediate mitigation measure could be early evacuation or decongestion of the city when intense rainfall is predicted.

“Including the idea that we know the next two hours is going to rain a lot, could we start decongesting the city, people going home, reducing the traffic so that at least we have enough space for emergency vehicles to move,” he said.

Idris added that in the short to medium term, the city urgently needs to unclog its drainage systems, especially at key choke points, noting that the country is only at the start of the long-rains season.

“So, the next couple of days, some of these goals we need to achieve them and I think there’s a huge task on Nairobi county government to achieve that.”

In the long term, he said, Nairobi must expand its drainage infrastructure to accommodate increasing volumes of runoff water during heavy rainfall.

He noted that extensive tarmacking and paving across the city has reduced the ground’s ability to absorb water.

“Our channels for moving water are constrained and so Nairobi River, its flow across the city is such that at different points there’s a high level of constraining. It has narrowed and that’s why Nairobi River regeneration is critical.”

Architect and urban developer Alfred Omenya echoed similar concerns, saying human interference with natural systems has worsened the flooding crisis.

“We have a catastrophic situation. It is human destruction that is at the core of what we are seeing. The natural system that was taking care of us has been totally destroyed,” he said.

Nairobi County’s Chief Officer for Disaster Management Bramwel Simiyu said authorities faced an unprecedented challenge as rainfall levels exceeded expectations.

“Heavy rains are in the range of 20mm to 30mm and that is not something our drainage system is designed to handle. It begins to be life threatening when we are talking about 160mm of rain,” he said.

Data from the Meteorological Department shows that the area around Wilson Airport recorded about 160mm of rainfall, Moi Airbase received 145mm, Dagoretti 112mm and Kabete 117mm.

The intense downpours triggered severe flooding in Westlands, Dagoretti, Embakasi, Kibra, Roysambu and Kasarani.

"We will be looking at more models in the course of the day so that we issue a national forecast but so far we are indicating that we are likely to see a reduction in amounts and a gradual reduction in terms of spatial coverage,” said Mary Kilavi, Assistant Director at Kenya Met.

Idris said rescue teams were fully prepared and equipped but the intensity of the Friday rains made response operations extremely difficult.

“While we were receiving 160mm in some areas, it really exceeded what we had anticipated and that made movement extremely difficult so our search and rescue team had difficulty reaching different parts of the city. The roads were a mess, nine of the city roads were completely impassable for several hours.”

He warned that the death toll and displacement figures could rise as search and rescue operations continue.

Speaking on NTV’s Fixing the Nation programme on Monday morning, Environment and Climate Change Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa said the disaster highlighted the need for closer coordination between the national and county governments.

She noted that the cooperation agreement recently signed between the national government and Nairobi county aims to address the city’s infrastructure challenges and promised that residents would begin seeing results within three months.

“There’s need for synergy, collaboration, cohesion, cooperation and consultation between the national and county government for us to make Nairobi work. That is the only way, when we have team work,” she said.