Rains to continue another week, in a few places

Hope and uncertainty as farmers ready their fields for the long rains

Rains will continue in many parts of the country into next week, while northern Kenya remains dry.

Acting Kenya Meteorological Department director Edward Muriuki said the rains are concentrated in the southern region of the country.

He added that they will extend to central, western and southern parts of the Rift Valley.

The forecast indicates that drought-hit Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo will remain dry.

“Night-time (minimum) average temperatures are expected to be less than 10°C in some parts of the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, the central Rift Valley and in the vicinity of Mt Kilimanjaro,” Muriuki said in a forecast ending February 23.

The forecast shows continued rainfall in Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok counties.

“Morning rains are likely over a few places. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected in several places. Night showers are likely over a few places, occasionally spreading to several areas,” Muriuki said.

The highlands east of the Rift Valley — Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru and Nairobi counties — will experience occasional morning cloudiness, giving way to sunny intervals.

“Afternoon showers are expected in a few places, occasionally spreading to several areas. Nights will be partly cloudy, though showers may occur in a few places,” he said.

At the Coast — Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties, as well as the Tana Delta — days will be sunny with partly cloudy conditions at night. However, morning and night showers may occur in a few places in Kwale county during the first half of the forecast period.

In north-western Kenya, covering Turkana and Samburu, sunny intervals are expected during the day, with partly cloudy conditions at night.

“Daytime (maximum) average temperatures of more than 30°C are expected in several parts of the country, including the Coast, the south-eastern lowlands, north-eastern and north-western Kenya,” Muriuki said.

The department advised farmers in rainy regions to take advantage of the showers, while those in northern Kenya should conserve water and protect livestock from heat stress.

The new seven-day forecast comes weeks after the department announced that most parts of Kenya are expected to receive heavy rainfall during the March–April–May (MAM) season.

In early February, the department said the long rains would begin between mid- and late March in Central Kenya and Nairobi, the Rift Valley highlands, and southern and western regions around Lake Victoria. These areas are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall.

The rest of the country, except the Coast, is expected to receive near-normal rainfall, with the onset likely in early April. Coastal regions will experience drier-than-normal conditions.

The forecast, released in Nairobi by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), suggested that the current drought affecting many parts of Kenya could ease within the next two months. However, its effects may persist for several months.

The outlook covered the wider Greater Horn of Africa region. It indicates that Kenya and Somalia are likely to receive less rainfall than neighbouring countries.

“The outlook indicates a 45 per cent probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti,” ICPAC said.

Muriuki said timely climate information is critical, especially for farmers affected by drought.

“Early warning services are essential in mitigating climate risks. They provide timely information that enables governments, communities and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards,” he said.

ICPAC cautioned farmers against assuming that good seasonal rainfall would mean continuous rain throughout the season.

“Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecast to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, while wet spells may occur in areas forecast to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall,” the centre said.

Experts noted that although the March to May season is Kenya’s main rainfall period, it is also the most difficult to predict with high confidence.

“While the MAM season contributes a larger share of annual rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, seasonal anomalies are generally less predictable than in other seasons,” they said.

“This is largely due to the weak relationship between rainfall and global climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.”

They warned that conditions may change during the season, with local and month-to-month variations expected.

“Even in areas forecast to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, dry spells may occur and vice versa,” they said.

ICPAC director Dr Abdi Fidar said the regional climate forum helps countries translate warnings into action.