Mount Kenya region remains Kenya’s most influential electoral region, with about 5.77 million registered voters in the 2022 election, accounting for 26.1 per cent of the national electorate.
The region spans 10 counties: Kiambu, Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia, Nakuru and Nyandarua, giving it significant weight in shaping national election outcomes.
By comparison, Rift Valley registered 5.34 million voters (24.2 1 per cent), Nyanza 3.12 million (14.1 1 per cent), Nairobi City 2.42 million (10.9 1 per cent), Western 2.22 million (10 1 per cent), Coast 1.96 million (8.9 1 per cent), and Lower Eastern 1.7 million (7.7 1 per cent).
Political analysts warn, however, that the 2027 election may not follow the same pattern.
While winning Mt Kenya still offers a major advantage, losing support or even seeing it weaken could push President William Ruto below the 50 per cent threshold required to avoid a runoff.
Opposition parties are already strategising to capitalise on any shifts, targeting key counties and influential leaders to sway voters.
Ruto, during his recent tour of Mount Kenya, thanked the electorate for supporting him in 2022, noting that he is ready to fulfill his campaign manifestos.
He urged his supporters to shun propagandas being pushed by the opposition team whom he termed as clueless and formless.
“I will not abandon you as you are the ones who elected me. When the time comes, judge me by my development record and not propaganda, the opposition is clueless and I will deal with them when time comes,” Ruto said.
Speaking to the Star, Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri said that Mt Kenya, just like any other part of the country, is united and the politics of division is being pushed by a section of leaders for their own interest.
Kiunjuri said that the President still enjoys massive support from the region, a move demonstrated by his recent tour in the area.
He added that time will tell, pointing out that one and half years ago, after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, the perception of Ruto was different.
“One and half years ago, there was notion that Ruto could not step in Mount Kenya but now he was there and the people were happy and welcoming. Ruto is very much grounded in the region, he was earlier accused of unfulfilled promises but now he has done a lot for the region,” Kiunjuri said. “We will recover 60 per cent of the rest of Mount Kenya,” he added.
This was echoed by Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura, who said that the government has very strong backing in all regions across the country.
Mt Kenya has shown its unwavering support, looking at the recent happenings such as the UDA grassroots elections.
“The government continues to shock detractors and naysayers. The President has reiterated his commitment ensuring that the region is fully in government, a fact buttressed by the high representation in the broad-based government from the cabinet all the way down, “Mwaura said.
He added that the head of state has his loyal supporters and many people will be surprised just like they did recently during Mbeere North by elections.
“We will continue to consolidate the region to remain in government as is currently the case,” Mwaura said.
However, opposition leaders painted a different picture arguing that the region is no longer supporting the President following the impeachment of his deputy.
Kiambu Senator Karungo Thangwa, a close ally Gachagua, accused the President and his team of what he described as a “divide and rule” strategy.
Karungo said that no matter how many political rallies Ruto holds in the region, they will not necessarily translate into votes.
“Ruto and his team should not confuse massive crowds with votes, we told our people to always avail themselves to Ruto meetings to ‘eat’ free money, and vote for the United Opposition.”
He further maintained that Gachagua, who is also the Democracy for Citizens Party leader, has retained the position of the regional kingpin as the most popular candidate.
“Anytime we see Ruto in Mount Kenya, we are happy knowing that our people are enjoying free money, it’s their time to eat,” Karungo said, urging Ruto to make more inroads to the area as he bid people farewell.
“We don’t care as United Opposition on who becomes a flagbearer, what matters most to us is to make Ruto is to be reelected,” he added.
Gachagua, during a Democratic Party national delegates meeting at Ufungamano House on Wednesday, dismissed reports of defections from the opposition to the government side.
The DCP leader maintained that the opposition remains intact, arguing that those who crossed over had never been committed to the coalition’s agenda.
“There was a narrative at the beginning of the year that people are defecting from the United Opposition and DCP to the government. There is nothing like that. They have gone to where they were from,” he said.
Gachagua in earlier interviews with media urged President Ruto to forget about Mount Kenya support, saying the region never forgives betrayal.
“Mt Kenya votes will never go to anyone cheaply. Come rain come sunshine, our votes will never make us slaves again. Of all the possibilities, Mt Kenya will not be with Ruto in 2027,” he said.
He added: “My brother William Ruto, I cannot help you. Don’t blame me, I'm not the cause. I sat you down and told you that people from the mountain loved you, but they hate being betrayed.”
“Let me advise you for free; forget about this mountain. If you have any plan to be reelected, in your formula and mathematics, remove the mountain because it is gone forever.”
Party of Democratic Unity national chairman Issaiah Gichu reiterated that the Ruto support base in 2027 from Mount Kenya will be determined on whether he delivers regional promises within the remaining time.
Gichu argued that the President might fail to garner 70 per cent of the region votes but he will most likely get more than 50 per cent, noting that his relationship with other parties in the broad-based government might help expand the margin.
“The narrative on Ruto support base in Mount Kenya is slowly changing, it’s not as it was bad after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, time will tell it all,” Gichu said.
Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia during an interview with Inooro TV’s last week, maintained that the region will fully support any other candidate but not the President, noting that he betrayed the community that campaigned for him.
“Ruto betrayed our people after he allowed the impeachment of region’s kingpin Rigathi Gachagua and we can’t follow him again,” Muhia said, adding that DCP is currently the most popular party in the region.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, an ally of the former DP, echoed Muhia’s sentiments, noting Mt Kenya people love dignity and respect but hate betrayal.
“Mount Kenya people hate betrayal and they don’t entertain it all, they love dignity and respect, the people of Mount Kenya will never forgive Ruto for the ills that he has accorded the region, ranging from unfulfilled campaign promises, killing youths and introducing policies that don’t favour common wananchi,” he said.
He said that the United Opposition will continue the Gen Z with a mission of making Ruto a one-term president.
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga said that while the region may seem divided, the only people divided are politicians.
“The general populace is united and sometimes because of our entrepreneurship, the people of the mountain will oscillate towards the cash and goodies, but come election time, they vote in one way,” he said.
“In 2002 it was Narc, PNU wave in 2007, 2012 and 2017 Uhuru Kenyatta won on Jubilee while in 2022, William Ruto won on a UDA wave. Which is the next wave in our region? DP? DCP? another new one? Time will tell,” Kahiga said.
Juja MP George Koimburi, on his part, argued that the opposition team lacks unity and is disorganised, giving it reasons to rejoin the President’s party UDA.
He reiterated support for reelection of Ruto, noting that he is the most popular candidate.
Koimburi argued that the head state will be reelected and supported in Mt Kenya due to his recent development record.
“It’s only Ruto who has publicly declared his bid for presidency, the rest in the opposition are confused and they don’t even know their candidate, I decided to follow him because I know where he is heading the country,” he said.
Former Nyandarua Governor Francis Kimemia said that all is not lost for the President and his team if they repackage themselves well for the remaining period.
He argued that if he (Ruto) delivers on his campaign, he stands a chance of being supported to complete his two terms based on development.
Kimemia said that Mt Kenya has never had a single political party formation noting that electorates will elect leaders based on capacity.
“People want better economy backed by development, political parties are mostly used as vehicles by politicians to reach their destinations.”
He added that if Ruto manages to fight corruption, deliver on his campaign manifestos, and have professionals in his administration, all will be well for him.
He said the Singapore ideology pushed by Ruto should be studied from former President Mwai Kibaki’s leadership style as he (Kibaki) introduced policies that brought growth across the country.
He added that Kenya has great potential if properly led and urged leaders to respect each other while focusing on service delivery.
“We don’t want Mount Kenya to abuse its position by disrespecting its leaders, we need to preach peace and unity irrespective of political party affiliations,” he said.
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