Inside Wiper’s bid to position Kalonzo for a Ruto showdown

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka /FILE

Details have emerged of an intricate political strategy Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is laying as he prepares for a possible face-off with President William Ruto in the 2027 general election.

The Star has established that the former vice president has quietly begun building an expansive political machine, putting in place structures, networks and resources.

Kalonzo’s close troops say the effort is deliberate, methodical and largely kept out of the public glare to deflate the opponent.

The former VP is widely expected to fly the United Opposition’s presidential ticket in a contest many analysts predict will be fiercely competitive.

In October last year, Wiper’s national delegates convention endorsed him as the party’s presidential candidate, marking a decisive shift from his past role as a perennial supporting act.

“I accept your nomination to be your presidential candidate for the elections scheduled for 2027,” Kalonzo declared amid cheers from delegates, signalling that this time he intends to go all the way.

Behind the scenes, sources say the Wiper chief has assembled a team of high-level think tanks, including local and international political strategists whose identities are being closely guarded.

The group is tasked with mapping the political terrain, crafting campaign messaging, monitoring trends and advising Kalonzo on day-to-day political decisions.

“Kalonzo is already presidential in terms of systems and structures — both software and hardware — that he has put in place,” Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi said.

According to insiders, some of the strategists previously worked on Raila Odinga’s 2022 campaign, while others are new faces brought in to counter President Ruto’s highly organised political machine.

They include senior lawyers, economic and computer gurus and communication experts tasked with rebuilding his image and delivering the presidency.

Kalonzo, who has travelled in and out of the country in recent weeks, is also said to be engaging foreign data analysts and political consultancies to sharpen his strategy.

“The team will constantly read the mood of the country, anticipate political attacks and craft mitigation messages,” a top lawyer who is one of the advisers and is familiar with the preparations, said.

Parallel to the strategic build-up, Kalonzo is assembling a campaign war chest.

Sources indicate he has recently held meetings with several potential financiers willing to bankroll his presidential bid.

“Kalonzo knows he is facing a well-oiled regime with deep pockets. That is why he is aggressively building financial muscle,” the lawyer said.

At the centre of his operations is the fully equipped Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka Centre, which serves as his main campaign nerve centre.

The facility, situated in Karen, Nairobi, houses a secretariat with departments handling strategy, communications, mobilisation and logistics.

“The centre is complete. We have our strategists and political advisers in place. As a party, we are moulding Kalonzo into a formidable force. We are not second-guessing,” Wiper secretary general Shakila Abdalla said.

Already operational is SKM TV, an online channel that broadcasts Kalonzo’s political activities and messaging, part of a broader push to control the narrative and bypass traditional media gatekeepers.

In addition, Wiper is quietly establishing satellite campaign centres across the country, a strategy party insiders say is meant to avoid vulnerability.

“The reason Raila Odinga remained active in politics for so long was that he was mysterious and unpredictable. He never put all his political eggs in one basket,” Mwangangi said.

“That is why we are setting up other centres away from what is publicly known. That is how politics is played everywhere,” he added.

At the grassroots level, Wiper has intensified an online and physical membership recruitment drive both within and beyond its traditional strongholds in Ukambani.

The aim is to expand the party’s national footprint and shed the image of a regional outfit.

“All these things are being done quietly because we understand the opponent we are facing. Sometimes it is difficult to divulge what we are doing or have done,” Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said.

Kalonzo is also personally reaching out to key political figures locally and internationally as part of his outreach strategy.

Sources indicate he has recently held talks with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, seeking his backing.

Uhuru is said to be particularly keen on a possible partnership between Kalonzo and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, a combination viewed by some opposition figures as capable of attracting broad national support.

Kalonzo is reaching out to ODM leader Oburu Oginga, with insiders saying the two leaders could meet soon.

“ODM has been our partner. And our party leader is convinced that we should engage them. He is personally leading that drive,” Abdalla said.

Kalonzo, 71, is one of Kenya’s most experienced politicians.

He served as VP under the old constitutional order and has held several ministerial positions, including Foreign Affairs, where he built a reputation as a seasoned diplomat.

Political analyst Kaburu Kinoti says Kalonzo represents a credible alternative in 2027.

“He is not a controversial leader, and his experience in government and diplomacy is unmatched. If he teams up with someone like Matiang’i, that could significantly broaden his appeal,” Kinoti said.

Another analyst, Martin Andati, argues that Kalonzo would be a formidable challenger to Ruto if he emerges as the single candidate of the United Opposition.

“He has vast experience in governance, has not been tainted by scandal despite long service in government and is mature, sober and not polarising,” Andati said.

However, Kalonzo’s critics say his past political choices have weakened his brand as a serious presidential contender.

Political observer Mark Bichachi reckoned that Kalonzo needs to fix at least three issues to become a formidable challenger to President Ruto.

He must be able to build a mammoth opposition coalition under him, start exciting and enticing the electorate, and run a campaign machinery with full communication and ground canvassing capacity.

“He must be in every headline, every trend and every bar talk. He must have scores of people across the country singing his praises and explaining his mistakes,” he said.

“In the same vein, it should be noted that President Ruto has all three in his bag already. Kalonzo is starting nearly a lap behind. To win the race, he must run twice as fast as the president, who never stops running,” Bichachi added.

His repeated withdrawals from presidential races and consistent support for Raila Odinga have, they argue, eroded his image as a decisive leader.

In both the 2013 and 2017 elections, Kalonzo shelved his presidential ambitions to become Raila’s running mate.

In 2022, he relinquished the deputy presidential slot to Martha Karua as the opposition sought to woo the Mt Kenya vote.

While Kalonzo reliably delivered the Upper Eastern vote bloc to Raila in all three elections, Raila still lost, reinforcing perceptions that Kalonzo has always played a secondary role.

Critics also argue that his support base remains largely confined to Ukambani and that his calm, diplomatic style may be a disadvantage against more aggressive and populist rivals.

“He is perceived as laid back and not a go-getter in the mould of Raila and Ruto. He is also seen as less charismatic and with a weaker financial base,” a political observer said.

Nonetheless, Kalonzo has made it clear that 2027 will be different.

After sacrificing his ambitions in the last three elections, he has publicly said that he will not cede ground again.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

With several opposition heavyweights also eyeing the presidential ticket, the battle for the United Opposition flag is shaping up to be intense. Whether Kalonzo’s quiet but calculated preparations will finally propel him to the centre of Kenya’s presidential contest remains one of the defining political questions ahead of 2027.