It will be extremely dry in next seven days – forecast

Extremely dry weather is expected to continue in Kenya next week, as floods continue to soak southern Africa.

January and February are typically Kenya’s driest months.

Kenya Meteorological Department noted the dry weather will continue as usual next week. However, a few pockets of western Kenya may get rains.

“Predominantly sunny and dry conditions are anticipated across several parts of the country. Nevertheless, occasional rainfall is forecast in a few areas, especially the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin,” the Met department said in a statement covering one week.

The dry weather worsens a drought that began late last year when short rains failed in northern Kenya.

The Kenya situation contrasts with South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique, which are being pounded by heavy rains.

The rainy season in these countries runs from  November to March.

South Africa earlier this week declared a National Disaster due to the severe flooding citing widespread loss of life, infrastructure damage, displacement and disruption of schooling and agriculture.

Flooding in the region has become more frequent and severe as climate change makes storms in the adjacent Indian Ocean more powerful.

The dry weather in Kenya is linked to the La Nina pattern.

However, global weather outlooks now indicate a possible return of El Niño conditions later this year.

Recent projections from major weather agencies indicate that climate patterns are shifting from a weak La Niña to a weak El Niño by the middle of the year.

Experts said it is still early to define the full impact, but El Niño events are often linked to above-average rainfall in Kenya.

Forecasts by the US Climate Prediction Centre and other global weather centres indicate that El Niño may begin forming between May and July 2026, with a chance that it could grow to moderate or strong levels.

“For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” the US Met Office said in a statement.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has also reported similar findings, cautioning that forecasts beyond May remain difficult to predict at this stage of the year.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has yet to issue an official response.

 However, it is expected to publish its February three-month forecast covering the long rains season from March to May.

The India Meteorological Department has also flagged a higher likelihood of El Niño conditions developing during the June-July-August period.

“It is too early to say with certainty during which month El Niño will emerge. These are very early forecasts, and there will be more clarity in the coming months,” said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general.

Despite the expected shift, forecasters agree that La Niña, which often causes dry conditions in Kenya, is ending rapidly. Even so, its effects are still being felt in parts of northern Kenya.

Against this backdrop, the Kenya Red Cross Society has urged the government to embed climate risk planning into national development strategies and budgeting.

The organisation explained that climate risk management focuses on early action to reduce climate threats, limit damage, and help communities cope with both extreme weather events and slow-moving climate changes.

“More than 2.1 million people face an acute food crisis in arid and semi-arid regions, with thousands of children malnourished and in need of urgent support,” Kenya Red Cross Society secretary general Ahmed Idris said.

Data from the National Drought Management Authority shows that drought conditions across arid and semi-arid counties are worsening after the poor performance of the October to December 2025 short rains season.

According to the Drought Early Warning System run by NDMA, Mandera County remains in the ‘Alarm’ drought phase.

NDMA is the government agency tasked with coordinating drought risk management efforts across the country.