How Oburu is emerging as the natural stabiliser of Luo leadership after Raila

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga created an immediate power vacuum in Luo Nyanza, triggering a succession battle to fill the shoes of the political titan.

Unlike the three decades of firm, singular leadership under the former Prime Minister, the post-Raila era has quickly descended into turbulence, with rival leaders locked in bitter public exchanges.

Just months after his passing, infighting and jostling for dominance have fractured the political landscape, exposing a region struggling to find unity and direction without its long-time political anchor.

Long-suppressed rivalries have begun to surface, pitting younger, ambitious leaders against seasoned politicians over who should assume Raila’s mantle.

At the heart of the contest are disagreements over political strategy, party control and alignment with national power centres—fault lines that have exposed deep divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the party Raila founded and led for more than two decades.

As the turbulence intensifies, one figure has increasingly emerged as the anchor of continuity- Oburu Odinga, Raila’s elder brother and the current ODM Party Leader.

Oburu’s elevation initially drew scepticism in some quarters, with critics framing it as a familial succession rather than a political one.

However, as tensions have escalated, supporters argue that his long political career, measured temperament and deep institutional knowledge uniquely qualify him to steady the party and the wider Luo political establishment.

Despite the growing cracks within ODM, Oburu has consistently adopted a conciliatory posture, resisting calls for expulsions and warning that internal purges would weaken the party at a critical moment.

“We must walk together, and we have no intention to remove anyone. If someone wants to leave let them leave alone,” Oburu told supporters at Kamukunji Grounds in Kibra on January 14.

“If we want to negotiate, we must come together so as to negotiate from a point of strength,” he added, cautioning that a divided party would approach coalition talks from a position of weakness.

His remarks came amid heightened tensions after a group of ODM MPs led by Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga warned of a possible mass exodus if the party moved to expel Secretary General Edwin Sifuna over alleged party infidelity.

The internal discord has been compounded by rare public disagreements within the Odinga family itself.

EALA MP Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter, and Oburu have found themselves on opposite sides of debates about ODM’s future direction, exposing a generational and ideological divide within the party’s leadership.

Winnie has emerged as an assertive political voice, openly challenging her uncle’s approach and positioning herself as a defender of Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Sifuna—two figures who have become symbols of resistance.

Speaking at Kamukunji Grounds on January 18, Winnie insisted that ODM would not chase away dissenting voices. “No one will be chased out of ODM,” she said, specifically referring to Babu Owino and Sifuna.

Babu, widely regarded as a youthful, energetic politician with significant support among the youth, has gone further, calling for a complete overhaul of ODM’s leadership and demanding the convening of a National Delegates Conference (NDC). He argues that the party must renew itself after more than two decades under Raila’s stewardship.

According to Owino, Raila Odinga was his last political boss and the only leader he ever recognised at the helm of ODM. He maintains that while Raila is gone, the ideals and vision he stood for must continue to guide the party.

However, Babu’s confrontational approach has drawn criticism from some quarters. Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai accused Winnie of treating ODM as a family inheritance and questioned her authority within party structures.

“She can’t protect them when she can’t even be in the Central Management Committee. ODM isn’t a family inheritance. She need not push her luck,” Alai said.

Amid the noise, senior ODM figures have closed ranks around Oburu, arguing that discipline and respect for party organs are essential during the transition.

Minority Leader Junet Mohamed dismissed claims of a looming implosion, insisting that the party remains intact under Oburu’s leadership.

“There’s only one indivisible ODM Party led by Party Leader Hon. Dr. Oburu O,” Junet said.

“The ODM Party allows robust internal debate on a wide range of issues, with each member allowed to hold and air their opinions,” he added.

“However, once the relevant party organs have settled on a position, the expectation of the party base is that we all fall in line. This is what loyalty, fidelity and faithfulness mean.”

“There is no implosion and there will be none,” Junet concluded.

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma has argued that Oburu has already confounded his critics.

“All doubters are surprised by the solidity, experience, and wisdom of Oburu Oginga, the ODM party leader. What we know, you don’t know,” Kaluma said. 

Nyando MP Jared Okello has also been vocal in defending Oburu, citing his close relationship with Raila, deep party involvement and wisdom as reasons he is best placed to guide ODM through the transition.

Okello insists that the party remains strong, is not “for sale,” and retains its identity even as it engages in alliances with other political formations.

Political commentator Abuga Makori described Oburu as “a very sober man,” arguing that his temperament is precisely what the party needs. “Oburu is the most qualified person to lead post-Raila, and those against him are saboteurs,” Makori said. “ODM shall survive the storm.”

Beyond ODM, other figures—including Treasury CS John Mbadi, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and Interior PS Raymond Omollo—are frequently mentioned as possible future leaders in Luo Nyanza.

However, analysts note that Oburu’s unmatched political résumé sets him apart in the immediate term.

His career spans decades, beginning as a Kisumu municipal councillor, rising to become long-serving MP for Bondo from 1994 to 2013, serving as Assistant Minister for Finance, representing Kenya at the East African Legislative Assembly from 2018 to 2022, and currently serving as Senator for Siaya County while chairing the Senate Energy Committee.