President Ruto, Oburu corner Sifuna, ODM rebels in looming 2027 deal

President William Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Oginga at JKIA on October 16 last year /PCS

President William Ruto and ODM boss Oburu Odinga have cornered Orange party rebels as the two outfits signal a looming 2027 pre-election coalition deal.

Insiders say the pact could be sealed as early as April, a prospect that has thrown dissenting lawmakers—many of whom have vowed not to back Ruto’s re-election—into a political dilemma.

In what appeared to be a coordinated move, the UDA National Executive Council on Wednesday approved “structured engagements” with ODM, just two days after the Orange party sanctioned a similar process.

The parallel decisions have left critics facing shrinking options: fall in line or exit.

But Embakasi East MP Babu Owino says there is a third path—taking over the party from within.

Despite speculation that rebels could be pushed out, Babu insisted he is staying put and will fight to eventually assume the ODM leadership.

“Politically, that [coalitions] is tomorrow’s problem. Today’s problem is to be given the party to be the party leader,” Babu said when asked if he was considering leaving ODM.

“You saw the recent polls showing I should be the party leader, so the party should be handed to me as soon as possible. There is nothing wrong with Moses, but this is a Joshua moment. If the party used polls to give direct tickets during nominations, they should use the same polls to hand over the party to me.”

Alongside ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo, deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Babu ranks among President Ruto’s most vocal critics within ODM.

At a rally at Kamukunji grounds on Wednesday, Oburu Odinga dared those unhappy with the party’s direction to walk away.

“We have no intention of removing anybody from the party. Whoever wants to leave is free to do so,” Oburu said, drawing a clear line as coalition politics gather pace.

While some of the rebels have threatened to break ranks, their dilemma is their next destination.

Analysts argue that once the talks are entrenched, rebels will struggle to mobilise within a party machinery increasingly oriented toward cooperation with the state.

A section of party officials on Thursday accused the ODM leadership of betraying the legacy of party leader Raila Odinga, arguing that partnering with Ruto contradicts Raila’s last instruction to supporters.

Amisi told the Star that his team will study the situation before announcing their new political journey.

The yet to be started talks, he insisted,  sharply contradict what Raila said during his last address to the ODM Parliamentary Group meeting.

Amisi said they are ready to “chart a new journey”, warning that ODM risks losing its soul.

“Baba told us ‘who told you ODM will not have a presidential candidate?’ If ODM does not want a presidential candidate we will just start a new journey,” he told the Star on phone.

“We will just start a new journey, there is no need to worry. Let’s see how they will conclude their investigations.”

Babu has emerged as the most vocal critic of the UDA-ODM talks, terming the decision rushed and strategically flawed.

“ODM should not rush into making decisions. Baba never used to follow coalitions, coalitions used to follow Baba. That is the ideology we believed in. We should not be in a rush, we should ask ourselves why are we in a rush to make coalitions?”

The premature commitments, he warned, would hand UDA the upper hand in any coalition.

“The moment you rush, there will be other parties which will come and negotiate better stakes than you. There is no need of being in a hurry, the party should be built,” he argued.

Elsewhere, a lobby group calling itself ODM Council of County Coordinating Chairs called for full implementation of the 10-point NADCO agenda before the first anniversary.

“In honor of our departed Party Leader, we call for the full and proper implementation of the Ten-Point Agenda and that no further agreements or arrangement be entered before the said Ten-Point Agenda is fully implemented,” the group chairperson DicksonManyara said in a statement.

The leaders also urged the party to respect Raila’s last wish regarding 2027 elections.

“We call for the respect of the last wishes of our late Party Leader Rt Hon Raila Odinga who publicly directed on September 22, 2025 that ODM remain a distinct political party with the aim of fielding all candidates including a presidential candidate for the 2027 general election,” Manyara said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS.

As the two parties move to set timelines and structures for negotiations, ODM rebels face a defining moment: submit to the new direction, attempt a risky internal revolt, or abandon the house Raila built to start afresh elsewhere.