Why competing candidates in ODM–UDA zones is giving coalition strategists 2027 headache

The prospect of competing candidates in ODM and UDA camps is emerging as one of the biggest headaches for coalition strategists, with fears that internal competition could hand rivals an unintended advantage in key battlegrounds.

Already, there are fears that multiple candidates flying allied party tickets would split the vote and weaken what would have been straightforward wins.

Strongholds may turn into unexpected battlegrounds and hand the opposition a political through-pass.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo opined that the President William Ruto-led team risks losing a number of seats—even in its strongholds—if they insist on fielding parallel candidates.

“It is a proven political campaign fact that when same members of coalition field their candidates that has always been a source of poll loss,” Orogo told the Star on the phone.

“You can draw an example of what happened in Azimio la Umoja in the last elections when Wiper and ODM were fielding separate candidates for the same electoral seat. Also remember the case of Langata constituency in 2017, when both parties shared votes and lost.”

The headache is already evident in Nairobi, Narok, Kisii, Migori, Bungoma, Kisumu, Siaya and Mombasa counties, where affiliate parties are likely to front parallel candidates, especially for the top seats.

In Nairobi, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino (ODM) and Nairobi's incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja are likely to split votes, giving leeway to a joint united opposition candidate.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya and former Planning PS Irungu Nyakera are all angling for the United Opposition ticket.

In Bungoma, ODM is fronting Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi against UDA's Didmus Barasa.

Another delicate balancing act the broad-based coalition faces is in Siaya, where Movement for Democracy and Growth boss David Ochieng’ has declared intention to unseat ODM’s James Orengo in 2027.

In Mombasa, incumbent Governor Abdulswamad Nassir is facing stiff competition from Nyali MP Mohammed Ali of UDA.

Avoiding the route would mean selecting joint candidates or implementing zoning that could dim the rising political stars, especially those seeking to unseat governors.

Within ODM, leaders are increasingly pushing for strict zoning arrangements that would give the party a free hand in its perceived strongholds.

Those behind the idea, led by ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga, argue that zoning is necessary to protect the party’s political influence as it prepares to back President William Ruto’s re-election.

“UDA is actively planning to field candidates in our regions as ODM. Such moves are signs of political dishonesty that have always undermined the spirit and letter of the coalition agreement reached to promote political cooperation and stability. The agreement was clear on respecting each other's political spaces,” Wanga said last month.

Speaking at Parliament Buildings last Monday, Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo, while calling for order in the party, acknowledged that fringe parties are already having a field day in once ODM-dominated areas.

“We can’t help but curiously observe that small parties are aggressively and strategically moving to occupy the spaces previously held by our beloved ODM party,” Millie said.

However, the zoning proposal has run into resistance from affiliate parties within the pro-government formation, who argue that open competition energises voters and boosts turnout, hence is more beneficial to the President.

Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai has objected to plans, terming the idea selfish and ill-advised.

The vocal MCA contends that restricting candidacies would alienate grassroots supporters and create the impression of imposed choices.

“Anyone zoning Nyanza as an ODM-only stronghold is trying to be a broker and reducing competition while not helping President Ruto in any way,” Alai stated.

“It’s foolish to zone Nyanza as an ODM-only stronghold when you are also trying to create a dynasty in the same Nyanza through ODM domination. Do not force your relatives on the electorate. Allow free competition. Zoning benefits brokers desperate to create their own dynasties.”

Political commentator Odoyo Owidi warned that ODM’s push for strict zoning arrangements could backfire by dampening voter enthusiasm and ultimately hurt Ruto’s re-election prospects.

Odoyo argued that while intended to curb internal competition, zoning risks creating a sense of predetermined outcomes that discourage voters from turning out on polling day.

“Today, what ODM leaders in Luo-land are seeking is an arrangement that shields them from any competition outside their party. This could force strong opponents to run on tickets outside the UDA-ODM coalition,” Odoyo argued.

“President Ruto's re-election isn't even their third priority; they operate on the belief that they can simply negotiate a post-election coalition—a handshake, cooperation, government of national unity, or whatever name they choose—with whoever wins the presidency.”

Leaders from the smaller parties insist that competitive primaries and multi-party contests encourage mobilisation, saying higher turnout in ODM- and UDA-leaning regions would translate into stronger backing for the President and his allies.

“There is no way you expect regions like Nyanza, without a presidential candidate, to come out and vote if you don’t create competition in these other seats,” the MDG party leader told the Star.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

As negotiations continue, both sides acknowledge that failure to agree on zoning rules could undermine the coalition’s electoral strategy. For now, the debate underscores the delicate task of managing rival ambitions in regions where political dominance is assumed but far from guaranteed.