President William Ruto and the opposition face a a tough political war in the vote-rich Western region after a new opinion poll revealed a paradox that could shape the 2027 General Election.
While Ruto is the single most preferred presidential candidate, the same poll shows that most residents support the opposition.
The survey, conducted by research firm Infotrak and released on Thursday, shows Ruto leading the presidential preference race in Western but struggling against the broader political mood in a region that has historically leaned towards the opposition.
Asked by the pollster, "looking ahead to 2027, which of the following do you think the Abaluhya community should do?", 35 per cent of the respondents said the community should support the opposition.
However, 26 per cent said Mulembe should back Ruto's re-election bid.
Another 25 per cent said they would negotiate conditional support with any coalition, effectively positioning themselves as swing voters who could turn the region into a fiercely contested battleground.
Nine per cent of respondents said the Abaluhya community should remain politically independent for now and decide later, while six per cent were unsure which political direction the region should take.
The findings suggest that the President’s fortunes will largely depend on whether opposition leaders unite or head to the ballot separately.
According to the poll, 25 per cent of voters in the region rated Ruto as their preferred presidential candidate.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i came second at 15 per cent, followed closely by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya at 13 per cent.
Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka attracted eight per cent support, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino polled three per cent.
Other national figures lagged far behind. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Democracy for Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua and former Chief Justice David Maraga each garnered two per cent support.
The results point to a potentially tough contest for Ruto if the opposition manages to close ranks.
Analysts say a coalition bringing together Natembeya, Matiang’i and Kalonzo could significantly dent the President’s support in a region that commands millions of votes.
County-level data underscores the level of division in Western Kenya.
Busia recorded the highest proportion of respondents favouring the opposition, at 53 per cent.
Vihiga, on the other hand, emerged as the strongest Kenya Kwanza base in the region, with 45 per cent saying the community should back the ruling coalition.
Bungoma stood out for its political ambivalence, with 12 per cent of respondents preferring that the region remains independent before aligning with any coalition.
Perhaps most striking for State House is the finding on political influence.
Governor Natembeya emerged as the most influential political figure in Western Kenya, overtaking Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula — both of whom are President Ruto’s key allies and designated point men in the region.
Half of the respondents said Natembeya is the leader who most influences the region’s politics, while 36 per cent described him as the community’s political kingpin.
Mudavadi ranked second, with 32 per cent saying he influences regional politics and 18 per cent identifying him as kingpin.
Nairobi Senator and ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna also posted strong numbers, with 31 per cent of respondents saying he influences the region’s politics.
He was followed by Wetang'ula at 27 per cent, Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya at 14 per cent, and DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa at 13 per cent.
Other leaders trailed distantly. Mumias East MP Peter Salasya attracted seven per cent, Fred Gumo five per cent, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale four per cent and Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka two per cent.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Busia Governor Paul Otuoma and Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa each scored one per cent. Seventeen per cent of respondents declined to name any leader.
The weak showing of Kenya Kwanza-aligned figures, combined with Natembeya’s rise, is likely to intensify scrutiny of Mudavadi and Wetangula’s effectiveness as Ruto’s political anchors in Western Kenya.
The poll also sheds light on party politics in the region following the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga, who dominated Western Kenya politics for nearly two decades.
Despite his absence, ODM remains the most popular party in the region, commanding 25 per cent support.
Since 2007, Raila consistently outperformed local heavyweights such as Mudavadi and Wetang'ula in the region.
The new data suggests that ODM’s grassroots structures and legacy continue to resonate with voters.
Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance emerged as the second most popular party at 20 per cent, buoyed in part by recent successes such as the Malava parliamentary by-election win.
Gachagua’s DCP ranked third with seven per cent support.
Ford Kenya and DAP-Kenya posted modest figures of four per cent and two per cent, respectively.
Other parties — including Wiper, Jubilee, PNU, United Green Movement, Maendeleo Chap Chap, Restore and Build Kenya Party, MDG and Peoples’ Democracy Party — each attracted one per cent support, while minor parties collectively accounted for five per cent.
Party performance varied significantly across counties.
In Kakamega, ODM led with 29 per cent, followed by UDA at 13 per cent and DCP at eight per cent. Vihiga recorded a tight contest, with ODM at 25 per cent and UDA close behind at 24 per cent.
In Bungoma, UDA topped the list at 27 per cent, ahead of ODM’s 18 per cent. Busia leaned towards ODM at 27 per cent, with UDA trailing at 17 per cent. In Trans Nzoia, ODM led with 26 per cent, followed by UDA at 21 per cent.
The survey was conducted on December 29, 2025, using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI).
It sampled 602 registered voters aged 18 and above across Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and Trans Nzoia counties. The margin of error was ±4.0 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.
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