Agriculture review of 2025, what 2026 holds

Kenya’s agriculture sector in 2025 was characterised by big promises, uneven outcomes, climate variability and rising cost pressures of food commodities.

While government optimism around food production grew, many farmers and consumers continued to feel the strain of high input costs and food prices.

The year was marked by an intensified push on food security, fertiliser affordability and irrigation-led production, even as climate variability and market pressures exposed long-standing structural weaknesses in the sector.

“We are seeing progress in production and investment, but agriculture remains highly sensitive to weather, global markets and the cost of inputs,” Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe said during sector briefing in 2025.

“Our task is to stabilise these variables for the farmer and the consumer.”

Maize remained at the centre of Kenya’s food security conversation. Early in the year, the government announced the country was targeting 70 million bags of maize, a figure Kenya has never achieved.

The optimism was anchored on favourable rainfall in key breadbasket regions, expanded acreage and access to subsidised fertiliser. While output improved, the ambitious target remained largely out of reach, due to persistent challenges such as post-harvest losses, uneven access to inputs and regional climate disparities.

According to the National Agriculture Production Report 2025 by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), maize was grown on 2.41 million hectares, producing 4.03 million tonnes, reaffirming its dominance as the country’s staple crop.

There was a notable comeback for growers of traditional cash crops like pyrethrum. The pyrethrum sector, which had suffered years of decline due to delayed payments and weak governance, began showing signs of recovery.

Government reforms, settlement of farmer arrears and renewed global interest in natural pesticides helped restore confidence, particularly in Nakuru, Nyandarua and parts of western Kenya.

“Farmers are slowly returning to pyrethrum because payments have improved and there is renewed trust,” said a senior agriculture official from the Pyrethrum Processing Company of Kenya.

“It is not yet at peak levels, but the sector is no longer collapsing.”

Fertiliser remained one of the most contentious issues in 2025. The government’s subsidised fertiliser programme continued to cushion many farmers at planting time, but delays in distribution, regional disparities and concerns over long-term sustainability persisted.

A major shift towards a permanent solution came with the groundbreaking of a Sh100 billion Green Ammonia Fertiliser Plant at Olkaria, Naivasha, presided over by President William Ruto.

The project, a partnership between KenGen and China’s Kaishan Group, is expected to produce 480,000 tonnes of fertiliser annually, equivalent to over nine million 50kg bags, using geothermal energy.

“This project is about insulating our farmers from global fertiliser shocks and lowering production costs in the long-term,” Ruto said at the launch, describing it as a cornerstone of Kenya’s food security strategy.

Once operational, the facility is expected to significantly reduce reliance on imports and stabilise fertiliser prices.

The Galana Kulalu Food Security Project continued under a public-private partnership with SELU Africa Ltd, signalling a shift from previous state-led models.

By the end of 2025, about 5,400 acres were targeted under maize production, with plans to scale up to 20,000 acres and, eventually, 180,000 acres. The project is also exploring diversification into groundnuts, sunflower and mangoes, alongside infrastructure developments such as power generation and dam feasibility studies.

Despite the progress, questions linger over timelines, cost efficiency and whether Galana Kulalu can meaningfully reduce national food deficits.

But even with improved output in some crops, food prices remained stubbornly high throughout 2025, intensifying pressure on household budgets.

Prices of staples such as eggs, onions, maize, Irish potatoes and macadamia nuts rose sharply, driven by high input costs, climate-related production disruptions, import dynamics and elevated transport and energy costs.

Many households responded by adjusting diets, reducing portion sizes or substituting foods, a trend which nutritionists believe will have a positive implication for nutrition and food diversity.

The National Agriculture Production Report 2025, pointed out mixed performance across sub-sectors, where the horticulture sector posted mixed results.

According to KNBS director general Macdonald Obudho, the cultivated area expanded to 476,700 hectares, but overall production and value declined.

“The flower sub-sector was particularly affected by higher costs and market regulations, while vegetables saw declines in exotic varieties,” Obudho noted.

“However, African indigenous vegetables grew by 13.7 per cent, and fruits such as bananas and avocados performed strongly.”

Total horticultural export value fell to Sh136.6 billion, mainly due to reduced vegetable exports, though Europe and the Middle East remained key markets.

Industrial crops posted stronger gains. Coffee production rose by 1.8 per cent to 49,500 tonnes, valued at Sh31.3 billion, while tea output grew by 4.9 per cent to 598.5 million kilogrammes, with exports increasing by 13.7 per cent. Sugar production surged by 72.5 per cent, reflecting reforms in milling and cane supply.

In the livestock sector, the report showed cattle numbers rose to 22.4 million, with goats and sheep recording strong growth, this is an indication of their resilience in arid and semi-arid areas. Fisheries production reached 168,400 tonnes, valued at Sh39.6 billion, driven largely by growth in aquaculture.

Looking ahead, early forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department indicate generally normal to above-average rainfall across most agricultural zones in 2026. However, the outlook also warns of flood risks in low-lying areas and the possibility of dry spells in arid and semi-arid lands.

While the forecast points to strong production potential, it stresses the need for robust early warning systems and wider adoption of climate-smart farming practices.

In 2026, attention is expected to focus on the fertiliser subsidy programme and progress towards local fertiliser production at Olkaria, initiatives seen as critical to improving soil health and boosting food production.

There is also growing emphasis on the expansion of irrigation, as Kenya seeks to reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture amid increasing climate uncertainty, alongside stronger focus on crop diversification, nutrition and climate resilience.

As the year begins, the concern remains whether sustained investment, policy reforms and favourable weather will translate into stable food prices, improved farmer incomes and lasting food security for Kenyan households.