Unregistered 1.5m Nyanza voters to swing 2027 polls

A sweeping national Identification Card registration drive has uncovered a previously invisible reservoir of eligible voters in Nyanza that is likely to increase the region’s electoral influence in 2027.

The Interior ministry alongside the State Department of Immigration and Citizen Services is spearheading the exercise.

The registration drive has cracked open what officials describe as an alarming backlog of unregistered adults, most of whom should have received their ID cards decades ago.

Interior ministry data show more than 1.5 million adults in Migori, Siaya, Homa Bay and Kisumu counties do not possess national ID cards, despite being well above age 18.

These latest statistics could point to evidence of a long-standing pattern of exclusion — one that political actors, human rights defenders and residents have complained about for decades.

Interior ministry’s Lawrence Nyaguti, who is leading the ongoing registration, told the Star that only 450,000 out of the 1.5 million individuals turned age 18 this year.

 “In our estimation, especially in the four counties of Migori, Homa Bay, Kisumu and Siaya, we estimate there are 1.5 million Kenyans who are eligible to be registered to have IDs,” Nyaguti said.

Out of this pool, he explains, the youth who recently completed secondary school are not the biggest demographic.

Instead, the majority comprise older men and women — some in their 40s, 50s and 60s — who have somehow slipped through the bureaucratic cracks.

“Out of that 1.5 million figure, based on the KNBS (Kenya National Bureau Statistics), the ones who have attained the age of 18 years by this year are 450,000… The remaining ones are the women, men who over the years have never got IDs because of the restrictions and charges that existed previously,” he said.

The numbers echo long-standing claims made by former ODM leader Raila Odinga, who for years accused the government of using documentation hurdles to suppress voter registration in his political base.

His complaints were confirmed in part by the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, which listed Luo Nyanza among the regions that suffered from “systematic official policy of suppression”, including economic exclusion and political marginalisation.

As President William Ruto is working closely with top Nyanza leaders, this could change.

Veteran human rights defender Suba Churchill says the long queues now forming across Nyanza are not an accident — they are a manifestation of decades of exclusion.

“It is part of the historical voter suppression that has happened in the region,” he told the Star. “And I think that given the region is now aligned to the powers that be, there is some political goodwill to bring in those segments of the population, including those who used to hold the old generation ID cards that were phased out.”

The ID issuance exercise — in which mobile teams are deployed across Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori — is attracting unprecedented crowds.

Thousands of young people who have been locked out of past voter rolls due to lack of IDs are finally getting the document.

Older adults are also rushing to register, some for the first time in their lives.

Officials say the turnout has surpassed expectations.

“In Kondele Roundabout alone, in two days we had 1,100 people being registered,” Nyaguti revealed. “The exercise we did on Wednesday and Thursday alone in those three counties… we registered 6,800 Kenyans.”

The surge coincides with President Ruto’s recent directive scrapping charges for replacing lost IDs, a move that has removed a long-standing financial barrier for low-income families.

The implications of the new registrations could be significant.

In the 2022 IEBC register, the four Nyanza counties collectively have 1.6 million votes — a figure set to significantly swell if even a fraction of the newly discovered ID holders proceed to register as voters.

Electoral commission records show Kisumu has 606,754 registered voters, Siaya (533,595), Homa Bay (551,071) and Migori (469,019).

For decades, Nyanza had one of the highest proportions of adults without IDs, a trend attributed to illiteracy, poverty, documentation gaps and historical discrimination.

The ongoing drive appears to be the first attempt to tackle this backlog at scale.

Nyaguti said simple but debilitating barriers thwarted many older adults: lack of parental IDs, lost documents, or misinformation about eligibility.

“One of the challenges is that there are people who dropped out of school… they thought that IDs are for those who have gone to school, so they did not bother taking IDs,” he said.

“Then there are women… who did not go school, who thought that when your husband has an ID then you don’t need to have an ID.”

He added that others gave up after repeated failed attempts.

“There is a third category… people who applied for IDs previously and because the documents did not come on time, they applied again and they did not collect them… and they gave up.”

Charges associated with ID replacement also discouraged many.

“When your ID got lost… you should go and get a police abstract. I am calling it a belief because it is not anywhere in the law. That stopped many people because when you go to the police stations, they will demand Sh100 for photocopy,” he said.

Local administrators say the turnout has exceeded their mobilisation efforts.

Kondele location chief Maurice Ajwang said applicants ranged from first-time 18-year-olds to adults replacing lost cards.

Some Kondele residents described the exercise as timely, saying many young people have been unable to access job opportunities, register SIM cards or apply for government services due to a lack of identification documents.

Trader Lucas Otieno, who witnessed the process, said access to IDs has remained a challenge for many low-income families.

“This programme has warmed the hearts of many people here. For years, some youths have had to postpone applying for IDs because they cannot afford the associated costs.

Bringing the service closer to them has helped bridge that gap,” he said.

While some residents expressed appreciation of the PS’s support for the registration, others urged government agencies to consider making such mobile registration drives regular, especially in informal settlements where many young people struggle with documentation hurdles.

Youth leader Dave Owango said the turnout reflected the demand for identification among young adults.

Human rights defenders blamed the lack of IDs to eligible people on cumulative effect of bureaucratic barriers, slow vetting processes and inconsistent documentation requirements.

Instant analysis

If sustained, the drive could mark the beginning of Nyanza reclaiming its full place in the national electoral map — by finally documenting a population that has long been present but missing from the official records.