Intrigues in Nairobi governor race as key players emerge

Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja/FILE

A fierce political battle is taking shape in the race for Nairobi governorship as major players compete for control of the country’s most influential county ahead of the 2027 elections.

With just under two years remaining, at least six prominent figures have either announced or indicated interest in unseating UDA’s Johnson Sakaja.

Sakaja is trying to break the cycle of one-term governors that has characterised Nairobi since devolution.

Pioneer Governor Evans Kidero served a full term, while his successor, Mike Sonko, was impeached before completing his term.

Anne Kananu, who took over after Sonko’s removal, chose not to run for the seat in the 2022 elections. Sakaja is now aiming to become the first Nairobi governor to be re-elected.

The list of challengers seeking to oust him includes influential political figures: Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Makadara MP George Aladwa and Embakasi North MP James Gakuya.

Others are former Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera, former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria and businesswoman-turned-politician Agnes Kagure.

Analysts say this race could become one of the most dramatic and significant elections of 2027.

Political watchers point to Nairobi’s billions in revenue, its economic influence, political symbolism and strategic importance as reasons for the intense competition.

“Nairobi is not just any other county. It is the seat of power. It generates billions. It is the gateway to Africa. That is why the scramble is there," says University don Macharia Munene.

Political analyst Dismus Mokua says a mix of factors—including party strength, ethnic calculations, coalition deals and candidate appeal—will influence the outcome.

“The race will be shaped by variables such as political parties, coalition formations, ethnic group alliances, grassroots mobilisation, leadership skills and overall fit," he says.

Candidate name recognition, emotional appeal, selection of running mates and fair distribution of party tickets across Nairobi’s political landscape will also be crucial.

“Powerful politicians such as President William Ruto, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and mama Ida Odinga will have a strong influence," he says.

Experts also say appeal to Gen Z voters, digital campaigning and framing the narrative will be essential.

Sakaja, currently UDA’s only confirmed candidate, is relying on what he describes as a solid record of achievements to secure a second term.

He recounts inheriting a city in chaos—marked by infighting, poor services and financial turmoil.

“The city was in free fall. There had been no governor. There was an impeachment. There were fights in the assembly. There was even a police post in the assembly. Bullet holes in the walls. It was chaos,” Sakaja recalls.

He claims to have cleaned up procurement processes, stopped fake LPOs that allegedly siphoned off at least Sh100 million every month and closed revenue leakages by ending cash transactions.

His administration has expanded roads, improved street lighting, enhanced garbage collection and launched subsidised school meals programme, Dishi na County, which has helped many children return to school.

Sakaja highlights increased revenue collection—Sh12.8 billion in the last fiscal year, the highest ever in Nairobi—and plans to raise that figure to Sh20 billion this year.

He boldly asserts that he will settle the county’s Sh107 billion outstanding bills by the end of the fiscal year.

In addition to his record, Sakaja is counting on UDA’s support base and the Luhya community—Nairobi’s second largest—where he has strong backing.

Until Raila Odinga’s death, Sakaja was also seen as enjoying the opposition leader’s goodwill.

Raila even appeared to endorse him earlier this year, urging Nairobi residents to support the governor to improve service delivery.

However, Sakaja’s opponents are united in their criticism, accusing him of overseeing a city sinking further into chaos.

Babu Owino says Nairobi is now characterised by garbage piles, traffic congestion, collapsing roads and uncontrolled hawking.

“He has failed in everything—poor roads, uncollected garbage, hawkers everywhere and dirty markets,” Owino told The Star.

The Embakasi East MP has had tense moments with ODM, including his sharp rejection of the party’s rapprochement with President Ruto and his displeasure over Raila’s perceived endorsement of Sakaja.

Owino insists he will vie for governor— “ODM ticket notwithstanding”—but has increasingly been gravitating towards Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Analysts say this is a tactical shift aimed at courting the Kamba and Kikuyu vote blocs.

Last week, DP Rigathi Gachagua invited him to decamp from ODM if he faced rejection for disagreeing with the party, though Gachagua remains closely aligned with Gakuya, complicating Owino’s pursuit of the Kikuyu vote.

Gakuya, an outspoken Sakaja critic, says the governor has failed to enforce order, invest in water infrastructure, address gridlocks or improve health services.

“Nairobi has become a dumping ground,” he says.

Gakuya is heavily backed by Gachagua and is banking on the Kikuyu community—the city’s largest voting bloc—as well as his new DCP party’s deal with Wiper to consolidate Gema and Kamba support.

Makadara MP George Aladwa is also in the race, anchoring his campaign on ODM’s longstanding dominance in Nairobi and his own Maragoli roots, which give him a significant Luhya constituency.

A former Nairobi mayor, Aladwa, says he will run on an ODM ticket and has rejected overtures from Moses Kuria to serve as his deputy.

“I have said I will not be Moses Kuria’s deputy. I have firmly stated that I will be vying for the position of Governor of Nairobi on the ODM party ticket in 2027,” he said.

Kuria, meanwhile, has sparked speculation about forming cross-party alliances after posting an image with Aladwa accompanied by a message emphasising unity over tribal or party loyalties.

Kuria is widely seen as a potential spoiler whose candidacy could split the Kikuyu vote, complicating the arithmetic for other aspirants dependent on the Mt Kenya voting bloc.

Former PS Irungu Nyakera is also positioning himself to attract Kikuyu voters, a constituency that historically influences Nairobi elections.

Businesswoman Agnes Kagure is also eyeing the same vote bloc as she revives her political ambitions.

Analysts say too many aspirants splitting the Kikuyu vote could radically alter traditional voting patterns and potentially open the race to unexpected alliances.

Behind the aspirants, however, lies a complex web of competing party interests and coalition strategies.

Nairobi, with its 17 constituencies, 85 wards and political diversity, often mirrors national politics. It is the most cosmopolitan county.

As such, the governor’s race is expected to reflect broader 2027 realignments involving Kenya Kwanza Coalition, United Opposition and other emerging political formations.

While Sakaja is seeking stability and continuity, his opponents view Nairobi as the ultimate prize—a position that delivers national visibility, access to resources and direct influence over the country’s political and economic nerve centre.

As the campaigns take shape, one thing is clear: the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial race will not only determine who occupies City Hall, but also signal the direction of the country’s evolving political landscape.