Drought fears as Met predicts dry weather till February, rains end from this week

The weather will be dry in most places the next three months, Met says. 

December is usually the tail end of the October-December rains. Acting director of meteorological services Edward Muriuki said November was unusually dry, and any remaining rains will stop between this week and the fourth week of December.

Some isolated episodes of rainfall may occur in December, but these will not significantly change the overall picture of a failed season. Even where rainfall is expected, the projections still show it falling far below normal seasonal averages.

“Most parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average (generally depressed) rainfall, while parts of the northeastern region are likely to receive below-average (highly depressed) rainfall,” Muriuki said.

Localised flooding remains a possibility in areas that may experience heavy episodes, especially in poorly drained urban centres and along rivers.

Muriuki said temperatures are projected to rise sharply across the country during this period. “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over the whole country, with prolonged periods of heat likely to intensify daytime temperatures, elevate nighttime minimums, and contribute to generally hotter-than-usual conditions throughout the month,” he said in a statement. This trend will extend into early 2026.

He explained that most parts of the country will be generally sunny and dry in January and February. The heat will also persist. “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the entire country,” he said.

“However, some areas, particularly the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the South Rift Valley, southeastern lowlands, and the coastal region, may experience a few rainy days in January and February.”

This caps one of the driest short rain seasons in recent memory. The Met noted that November is typically the peak of the short rains, yet most parts of Kenya received less than 40 per cent of their long-term means for that month.

“With the exception of  Garissa and Makindu, which registered near-normal rainfall totals, all other observation stations reported deficits ranging from below-average to severely depressed levels, highlighting the pronounced rainfall suppression across the country,” Muriuki said.

The combination of high temperatures and depressed rainfall poses risks to food security, water availability, livestock, and public health. The department warned that in arid and semi-arid regions, the anticipated near-to below-average rainfall is likely to reduce soil moisture, affecting crop growth and pasture availability.

“The near-to below-normal rainfall, coupled with poor spatial and temporal distribution, may negatively affect crop production, over most parts especially over parts of the Central and Eastern sectors of the country, including the Coastal region. In the ASAL areas of the Northeast and parts of the Southeast, the limited rainfall may hinder pasture regeneration, potentially leading to reduced livestock production,” Muriuki said.

He further cautioned that reduced rainfall may lead to lower water levels in rivers, dams, and reservoirs nationwide, and that warmer-than-average conditions may increase the risk of heat stress and vector-borne diseases.