Why Mbeere North polls results is a win for DP Kindiki Kithure

The just-concluded Mbeere North parliamentary by-election has been hailed as having resulted in a significant political victory for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.

Pundits say it goes a long way to solidify his influence in the Mt Kenya East region, and gives him a head-start in consolidating the entire mountain.

Ahead of the election, Kindiki was ridiculed and dismissed as a non-starter, who would not deliver in the face of the raging Mt Kenya politics.

The by-election, triggered by the appointment of former MP Geoffrey Ruku to the Cabinet in April, thus quickly evolved into a high-stakes political showdown.

The fight featured two of the region’s most powerful figures, that is, the DP and his predecessor, Rigathi Gachagua.

What began as a routine local election morphed into a proxy battle for influence within the Mt Kenya political landscape.

The two separately invested significant political capital in the outcome, camping in the region for days in a vote-hunting mission.

For Kindiki, the contest represented a crucial test of his authority and ability to mobilise voters in his own political backyard.

He personally led rallies across Mbeere North, campaigning vigorously for UDA candidate Leonard "Leo" Wamuthende.

In the rallies, he said the election would end Gachagua’s bravado, saying the ex-DP was not at the level of ICC’s Luis Ocampo, whom he (Kindiki) beat in the Ruto 2007 post-election violence cases.

After a tense electoral process, Wamuthende emerged victorious with 15,802 votes, narrowly defeating Newton Kariuki of the Democratic Party, who garnered 15,308 votes.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo says that in UDA winning the seat, “Kindiki has affirmed himself to be the leader of the Upper Eastern”.

“He must not stop there even so, if he wants to be a critical cog of President William Ruto’s 2027 reelection bid,” he said.

For the commentator, the vote settles the debate by Gachagua that DP had no political mettle to steer the region.

“He should go back to the drawing board and ask if he can consolidate the Meru and Tharaka votes, which have not bought the Gachagua politics yet,” Bigambo said.

Political analyst Viscount Owuor also had kind words for the DP, saying he should solidify the Upper Eastern to retain his post in 2027.

“He has the character, the education and the experience,” the analyst said, pointing out that Kindiki has the potential of making a good president in 2032.

In the campaign, the Deputy President framed the election as a choice between development and "vengeful politics”.

He urged residents not to support leaders pushing opposition agenda while government development projects were ongoing.

For other observers, Wamuthende's victory represents more than just a local political win.

Analysts suggest it consolidates UDA's dominance in Embu and signals a wider strengthening of Kindiki's influence in Mt Kenya East.

Former Mandera East MP Billow Kerrow said, “Despite all the noise in Wamunyoro, the broad-based government appears unbeatable anytime soon. And Kindiki, whom you despise, is now the Prince of the Murima [Mt Kenya].”

For the observers, the win is particularly crucial for Kindiki as it comes amid ongoing tensions with his predecessor, who had thrown his full weight behind the opposing candidate.

By securing this victory, Kindiki has not only strengthened his position as a political kingpin in the region but has also potentially weakened Gachagua's claim to influence in Mt Kenya politics.

“While some people may argue that the margin is slim. A win is a win. That is why the presidency is won by 50 per cent plus one. That one vote makes the difference,” Bigambo explained.

Throughout the campaign, Kindiki strategically positioned the election as a referendum on development.

He emphasised the completion of major government projects, including roads, water infrastructure and electricity connectivity from the Kiambere Dam.

The victory thus validates his development-focused messaging and strengthens Kindiki's hand in selling the government's agenda in the region.

The Mbeere North contest has served as a political lead for the larger contest inside Mt Kenya politics.

Political observers say that for the ruling UDA party, the win underscores its ability to mobilise voters even in fiercely contested races.

For opposition forces aligned with Gachagua, the narrow defeat may prompt a reassessment of strategy ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The win strengthens Kindiki’s position within the Mt Kenya political landscape and provides momentum heading toward the next general election.