Opposition leaders Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka were dealt a major political blow after their emerging coalition suffered a clean-sweep defeat in all seven parliamentary by-elections.
The United Opposition team only managed to secure a few ward seats.
The results, released late Thursday, delivered a stinging reality check to the duo, who have been positioning themselves as President William Ruto’s primary challengers ahead of the high-stakes 2027 General Election.
Despite weeks of coordinated rallies, joint appearances, and high-profile endorsements, their candidates lost in Mbeere North, Magarini, Malava, Kasipul, Ugunja and Banisa constituencies. Ruto’s party also clinched the Baringo Senate seat with a landslide.
From the results, Ruto’s broad-based government swept all major seats, giving his formation fresh momentum heading to 2027.
Gachagua’s DCP won Kisa East (Khwisero), Narok Town and Kariobangi North, while Wiper bagged Mumbuni North ward in Machakos county. The United Opposition also secured all three wards in Nyamira county — Ekerenyo (UPA), Nyamaiya (UPA) and Nyansiongo (PDP).
The broad-based team captured all the remaining ward seats.
The Gachagua team had billed Mbeere North, Malava and Magarini as early tests for their resolve to “send Ruto home in 2027.”
Insiders described the outcome as a rude awakening, with senior strategists privately admitting the coalition had overestimated its grassroots machinery and underestimated the incumbent’s influence.
“We have to go back to the drawing board. That is not what we expected especially in Mbeere North where we had put our all,” a senior official aligned to the coalition told the Star.
“It is good, it has happened early enough. We now have ample time to reset and prepare well for the 2027 contest.”
According to Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, the by-elections highlighted key aspects of Kenya’s current political landscape.
He cautioned that leaders who focus on arguments instead of meaningful voter engagement risk setbacks in future contests.
“This by-election has provided a good moment to learn and correct,” Amisi said.
“Those who learn will win the next election; those who continue arguing will lose, and life will go on.”
He added that the outcome of the by-elections should serve as a reminder to leaders to prioritise voter engagement and performance over rhetoric.
Amisi suggested that parties should re-evaluate their strategies, particularly in areas where vote margins were unexpectedly tight.
“Kenya needs a renaissance,” he stated.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargey told the Star that the 2027 elections will follow a similar pattern.
"This is a clear testament that Kenyans have faith in the leadership of President William Ruto. In 2027, nothing will change. President Ruto will still carry the day," he said.
Some members of the opposition team have however threatened moving to court to challenge the results of Thursday’s by-elections.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo (Wiper) claimed that cases of voter intimidation, interference compromised the integrity of the vote.
“Everyone knows what happened, there are enough grounds for petition and we are going to consider that,” Maanzo told the Star on phone.
“IEBC, we meet in court,” Kirinyaga Woman Representative Njeri Maina said.
Analysts say the by-elections outcome has a direct reflection on the direction the 2027 elections will take.
Advocate Ken Echesa said the just-concluded polls set pace for the next general elections.
“Chances are that people who will win are not largely winning by themselves, it is a reflection of so many combined forces and efforts. This election is, in my opinion, a pacesetter for 2027,” Echesa said moments before the results were declared.
While the coalition celebrated ward-level wins, observers noted these were largely in areas traditionally friendly to either Gachagua or Kalonzo, offering little comfort in the broader national picture.
Meanwhile, President Ruto seized the moment, framing the results as a public endorsement of the Kenya Kwanza administration and a rejection of what they termed as vision-less critics.
“We had by-elections yesterday (Thursday) from Mbeere to Kasipul, from Banisa to Baringo and out of the seven parliamentary seats, all of them went to the broad-based government,” Ruto said on Friday when presided at the ground-breaking of the Rironi- Mau Summit road.
“Some people have no agenda and no plan. They will come here and tell you ‘Kasongo’, ‘wantam’ and 'must go'.If they continue like this, we will sink them at dawn, we have warned them.”
Ruto also assured residents of Mt Kenya of his continued commitment to the region, recalling their firm support during the 2022 General Election.
"I became the President because of your votes. I want to assure you we will walk together until Kiambu and the whole Kenya is developed," he stated.
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