Hour of reckoning for the big 11 as high-stakes by-elections begin

IEBC chairperson Erastus Ethekon, accompanied by the returning officer and agents, witnessed the opening of ballot papers of Kasipul constituency in readiness for today’s by-election /IEBC

The country’s political terrain is bracing for potential tremors as the reality of the by-elections begins to sink in for top political players.

Today’s vote, observers say, could send shockwaves through Kenya’s political establishment and reshape the influence of dominant figures across the national landscape.

Today’s exercise has increasingly taken the shape of a mini-referendum on the country’s political elite, including President William Ruto.

With several parliamentary, senatorial and MCA seats up for grabs, the contest is being viewed as a defining moment for some of the nation’s most powerful figures, among them, Deputy President Kindiki Kithure and his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua.

The outcome will also carry heavy implications for the political careers of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and several ODM top officials, following Raila Odinga’s demise last month.

Top opposition politicians, including Eugene Wamalwa, George Natembeya and Justin Muturi—each of whom has staked significant political capital on today’s results—are also crossing their fingers.

Voters in Mbeere North, Magarini, Banissa, Malava, Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies are returning to the ballot to elect new representatives.

A similar race is underway for the Baringo senatorial seat alongside 16 ward representative positions—raising the stakes even higher for political combatants.

For President Ruto, a poor showing by his preferred candidates would dent his authority at the grassroots.

It would signal that the administration’s political machinery is losing traction and embolden the opposition’s narrative that the regime has lost public confidence.

Kindiki has invested heavily in the Mbeere North race, personally camping in the area that neighbours his native Tharaka Nithi county.

UDA is supporting Leonard Wamuthende, who is running against Newton Karish of DP.

Allowing the opposition to snatch the seat would not only weaken Kindiki’s influence within Kenya Kwanza but also fuel renewed demands for Ruto to pick a new running mate in 2027.

Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have openly framed these by-elections as a “2027 referendum on Ruto”.

Any flop in their respective strongholds could slow the opposition’s mounting national momentum.

It would also embolden Ruto’s push for a second term.

In Western Kenya, the political stakes are even more pronounced.

Mudavadi, Moses Wetang’ula, Wamalwa, Natembeya and Boni Khalwale are all battling—albeit on opposing sides—to demonstrate dominance in a region long considered politically fragmented.

While Wamalwa, Natembeya and Khalwale are rallying behind Seth Panyako in Malava, Musalia and Wetang’ula are fronting the ruling coalition’s candidate, David Ndakwa.

Whichever camp falters risks losing not only regional influence but also standing in national political negotiations as 2027 draws near.

In Nyanza, ODM’s Oburu Oginga and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga are under pressure in the Kasipul by-election, with the party keen to maintain a clean sweep in its traditional strongholds.

In Magarini, ODM is also keen to retain the seat through Harrison Kombe, who is locked in a do-or-die battle against DCP’s Stanley Kenga.

The Magarini poll is a test on Mining and Blue Economy, CS Hassan Joho.

Any slip could raise concerns about cohesion within the ODM structures and reshape President Ruto’s view of the party.

In recent months, ODM has been angling for Kindiki’s job if it is to back Ruto in 2027.

These high-stakes elections are unfolding amid growing allegations of vote-rigging and claims of state-sponsored interference.

The heightened tension has turned today’s polls into a national barometer of political strength, networks, mobilisation capacity, and the survival instincts of Kenya’s top politicians.

Already, tension has surged across the constituencies as rival political camps traded fresh accusations of vote-rigging in the final hours leading to today’s high-stakes by-elections.

Leaders from hotly contested constituencies were yesterday engaged in a fierce exchange over what they termed attempts to tilt the outcome of today’s exercise.

Claims of a plot to manipulate the outcome, turning the last stretch of campaigning into a battlefield of blame and counter-blame.

Leaders allied to the opposition accused state agencies of deploying administrators and security personnel to intimidate and coerce voters, alleging that suspicious movements of officials and materials have been spotted near polling centres.

In Malava, DAP-K candidate Panyako accused the state of trying to subvert the will of the people through last-minute bribery and intimidation.

In a phone interview with the Star, Panyako said he had received reports of ongoing bribery of voters by state agents to vote for his rival.

“If you go to Shiamberere National Polytechnic right now, you will find them distributing mattresses under the protection of the police. I will win, but the little vote they will get is because of the corruption they are engaged in,” Panyako told the Star on the phone.

Tension escalated further in Malava after opposition leaders—Trans Nzoia Governor Natembeya and Kakamega Senator Khalwale—claimed the government abruptly withdrew their security detail just hours before polling.

Natembeya said his bodyguards in his home in Kitale were recalled Tuesday night, terming the move a clear attempt to intimidate opposition figures and interfere with the integrity of the vote.

The governor termed the withdrawal as an act of intimidation and a threat to his life.

“All the security officers attached to me were recalled last night, and I was forced to have my own measures in place for safety,” Natembeya said.

“Let whoever did that know that I will not be intimidated or cowed into giving up on my stand.”

He said the withdrawal was done at a time when his life had been under threat.

Khalwale said the withdrawals were calculated to create vulnerability and disrupt the final mobilisation efforts.

“My security details have been pulled without any warning or explanation,” he said.

The leaders accused the state of weaponising security agencies to tilt the electoral environment, warning that such actions could inflame political temperatures in an already high-stakes contest.

In a rejoinder, Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen confirmed the withdrawal of security officers attached to Natembeya, adding that a number of leaders have had their security withdrawn.

“The National Police Service has a report that the officers attached to them are involved in criminal activities. Some who may be seen to be leaning to one side of the political divide have chosen to keep quiet and not to share publicly what the police have done, but some have decided to go public,” he said.

“It is not the security of only one person that has been withdrawn.”

According to the CS, their aim is to ensure firearms are not misused by the officers in the name of protecting their bosses.

“In any case, there is no boss tomorrow. The people are the bosses, and they are going to elect their boss, so everybody who was campaigning for a party your job is done,” he said.

Security has been tightened in all the affected constituencies, with additional officers deployed amid growing fears of confrontation.

The presence of security officers at the voting areas, he said, will be to ensure voters are not intimidated.

"Our job as a government is to ensure voters are not intimidated, and when we succeed in intimidating the goons, we are very happy. When goons complain that the government is intimidating, it is my joy,” the CS said.

Murkomen spoke when he assessed the security situation and preparedness in Kasipul and other electoral areas ahead of the polls.

He cautioned politicians against mobilising supporters to ‘protect votes’ during today’s by-elections.

The CS insisted that safeguarding the electoral process is solely the responsibility of the state.

“I want Kenyans to know that no civilian has been given the responsibility to protect any vote,” the CS said firmly.

“All Kenyans have a right to vote, and the provision of security is the preserve of the National Police Service.”

He made the remarks after the National Police Service issued a similar assurance of security and neutrality in the by-elections.

In a statement, NPS spokesperson Muchiri Nyaga said the police had deployed adequate personnel and were working closely with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to ensure a peaceful and credible process.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission will today conduct by-elections in 23 electoral areas, including one Senate seat, seven constituencies and 16 wards.