(Tuesday) Do or die for bigwigs as proxy wars rock Nov 27 by-elections

The November 27 by-elections across the country are shaping up into a high-stakes testing ground for the country's top political figures.

They are offering a glimpse into the relative strengths of the country's top political players, starting with President William Ruto.

Several constituencies have emerged as the flashpoints of these early political wars, notably Mbeere North, Malava and Magarini as well as some wards.

A sign of the high stakes is evident in the campaign trails being dominated by political heavyweights.

President Ruto, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, as well as key figures in the United Opposition, thus face a greater test.

Democracy for the Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua has promised to give UDA and its partners a run for their money in all the contests.

A loss would tell of his clout or the lack of it in Mt Kenya, and the United Opposition’s in the other electoral areas.

Western region has a big test in the Malava by-election, putting Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi,  National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Farouk Kibet on the crosshairs.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K party seek to make a statement too.

At Chwele Kabuchai ward, Wetang’ula is fighting tooth and nail, as a win would mean he still commands influence in the area.

“A loss will be devastating as it will signal the final nail on his (Weta) political grip,” David Burare, a political commentator, said.

For President Ruto, the election would send a multiple-pronged message of his popularity and whether he can effectively deal with his detractors.

In Mbeere North, for instance, the poll followed after he plucked Geoffrey Ruku from the Democratic Party and elevated him to Cabinet Secretary for Public Service.

Ruku held the Justin Muturi-led party’s only seat in Parliament, hence a UDA win is necessary to complete the takeover.

Former Speaker Muturi has promised to fight back and recapture the seat through Newton Karish, saying the election echoes the national feeling.

“It tells the entire nation that the era of intimidation is collapsing,” he said, putting his clout to the test too.

For the Gachagua backers, like Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji, UDA has little chance to capture the Mbeere North MP seat.

A win by UDA candidate Leo Wamuthende stands to speak to Kindiki’s grip of his backyard, to the chagrin of Gachagua.

Embu Governor and UDA national chairperson Cecily Mbarire, as well as Ruku, are also on the weighing scales.

Observers say that in the vote, the President is also testing the waters of his support in Mt Kenya, and that of his stalwarts.

Ruto’s inner circle feels that Mbeere North by-election cannot be the launching pad for the opposition outfit.

It is understood they feel the seat cannot be used as a protest field or a tool of revenge by Rigathi after his impeachment.

“Let him carry his cross and not drag the innocent people of Mbeere North. He cannot be used to weaponise them against the government,” an insider told the Star in confidence.

Senior politicians, including Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, are using the local races as proxies for larger political wars.

Recently, he explicitly acknowledged the high stakes and asked his supporters not to ‘frustrate’ his 2027 presidential ambitions.

“Save me from the embarrassment. They have set a trap, help me jump it,” he said during a rally at Mumbuni North ward, Machakos county.

The outcomes of the by-elections will send powerful signals about the strength and organisational capabilities of various political factions.

A strong showing would provide crucial momentum for aspiring candidates, while losses could cloud the perceived grip of their strongholds.

Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said, “national politics has overshadowed local politics and local contenders.”

“Political bigwigs have taken the by-elections as a serious test of their political parties' might,” he told the Star in an interview.

He argued that the high level of involvement has been marked by serious horse-trading in the opposition ranks, as seen in Malava and in Embu.

“The government side, loosely marked as broad-based, has not been left behind with joint campaigns in Kasipul Ugunja and Magarini,” Nyambuga said.

In Magarini, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir and ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay governor) also face a major test.

The DCP candidate Stanley Kenga is touted as a force to reckon with, having lost the 2022 election by a negligible margin.

It is a race that has a huge bearing on ODM’s strength in the Coast, with a United Opposition win likely to bolster their campaign.

The leaders have already said they want to use the by-election to build a storm to sweep President Ruto from office in 2027.

Senate Speaker Amason Kingi’s Pamoja Africa Alliance has also been roped in, and is backing ODM’s candidate Harrison Kombe.

“The consequences of this is that the result could be largely a reflection of the popularity of the bigwigs on the ground,” Nyambuga said.

The campaign rhetoric has the language of ‘one-term’ and ‘two-term’ presidencies, with direct references to the 2027 presidential plans.

For the communications don, the by-elections are “a little general election akin to that of 1966 between Kanu and KPU (Kenya’s People’s Union).”

“Whoever wins in these by-elections would be going into the 2027 general elections with clear bragging rights,” the political analyst said.

Political analyst Charles Munyui says, “a lot of things are going down for the big guys and the big political parties.”

He holds that the vote would be a “test of whether their popularity is retained or dwindling, more so for UDA in Mt Kenya and Baringo.”

Munyui adds that the greatest test for ODM is that the elections are the first that the party is going into without Raila.

“How ODM functions will be tested in Kasipul as well as in Malava. As far as the opposition is concerned, the question is about whether their glue works,” the commentator told the Star.

He added that it would tell whether the United Opposition parties are able to capture a seat in their respective backyards.

For Kindiki, “political differences cannot and should not amount to political enmity.”

His take is that Muturi, Lenny Kivuti and Newton Karish are sons of Mbeere North, Embu county and the Mt Kenya region.

“They have every right to pursue a political destiny. However, Gachagua's abuses targeted at Embu leaders are unwarranted and retrogressive,” the DP said.

“What moral grounds does he have to come to Mbeere North today and try to incite the residents against the government, yet he did nothing for the people when he was DP?” he asked in a recent rally.

In Nyamira, three ward by-elections in Nyansiongo, Ekerenyo and Nyamaiya are a testing ground for Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang'i's political influence.

His allies, led by Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi, have explicitly framed the contests as early signals of support for Matiang'i's 2027 ambitions.

In Machakos, Governor Wavinya Ndeti termed the by-election in Mumbuni North a "definitive moment" for Kalonzo's 2027 positioning.

In Malava, Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula has defied the DAP-K party to endorse UDA's David Ndakwa, saying he cannot let down his boss Fernandes Barasa and the ODM-led broad-based pact.

Kakamega senator and UDA chief whip Boni Khalwale is, on the other hand, campaigning for Seth Panyako, an opposition-backed candidate.

For the bigwigs involved, the message is that they have to perform well in the local contests or be questioned about their viability on the national stage.

In the country’s politics, where perception carries the day, the seemingly minor by-elections have a bearing on many political careers.

Pundits hold that the message in the outcome of the Baringo Senate poll, MP elections in Ugunja, Kasipul, Banissa, Malava, Magarini and Mbeere North is the same.

INSTANT ANALYSIS:

The results will undoubtedly reshape political strategies and alliances, creating winners who can claim momentum and losers who must regroup quickly if they hope to remain serious contenders in the next general election. In many ways, for the country’s political class, the 2027 campaign begins in earnest on November 27.