AWICH: What next for Odingas and ODM survival post-Raila?

The Orange Democratic Movement has found itself at a moment its rank and file long feared: a future without its founding leader Raila Odinga at its helm. With the passing of Raila, the question dominating both ODM corridors and national political chatter is whether the outfit can withstand the succession turbulence that has historically shattered parties built around dominant personalities.

Political historians draw parallels to the collapse of Ford Kenya after Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s death in 1994. Without its unifying patriarch, Ford Kenya splintered almost instantly, its factions fighting for control until the party lost national relevance.

Many fear ODM, despite its national footing, could face a similar fate unless its leadership confronts the succession question head-on. Already, a group calling itself ODM life members is pushing for removal of Raila’s older brother, Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga, as Raila’s acting replacement.

The anti-Oburu team led by Rachael Tabitha has petitioned the party’s elections body  to remove him, accusing him of violating the ODM constitution and undermining internal democracy.

The petitioners are specifically outraged by the manner in which Oburu was picked to replace Oburu

Following Raila’s death on October 15, the ODM national executive committee appointed the Siaya senator as acting leader, a decision ratified by the national governing council in Mombasa on November 14.

They said, “We demand the convening of an urgent national delegates convention to deliberate on the current governance crisis, restore legitimacy to party structures and reaffirm ODM’s constitutional values.”

“If the above actions are not undertaken within thirty (30) days from the date of this petition, we, the undersigned life members of ODM, shall tender our resignation from the party, as a matter of principle, in protest under the Raila school of thought against the ongoing violation of constitutional order.”

Oburu is widely respected but a section of party members say he is not the man who can galvanise the movement or manage its complex national coalition, which is divided into factions. Some insiders say he lacks the political stamina to hold the party together in the long term.

But the Siaya senator has dismissed those calling for his removal as being insincere, saying his elevation was a decision of the national executive committee and that he did not lobby for the seat.

“Those imagining they can break ODM — it will never happen. In my hands, ODM will not be divided, we will not allow the party to be divided,” Oburu said defiantly during a burial in Rongo, Migori county, on Tuesday.

Compounding the Orange party’s leadership confusion is the fact that Raila passed on with no heir apparent from his family.

His younger daughter, Winnie Odinga, is the most visible of Raila’s children in politics. She has the energy and name recognition, but there is general concession that she is still a greenhorn navigating the treacherous terrain of national party leadership.

Her youth appeals to a new generation, but ODM remains a broad, older structure requiring more experience in its commander.

Raila Junior, once the object of speculation as a possible successor, has shown little appetite for frontline politics, emphasising personal projects and governance reforms rather than elective ambition.

Raila’s sister Ruth Odinga, bold and unapologetically vocal, commands attention but not yet a substantial national bloc. Party strategists describe her as influential but lacking the broad base needed to steer ODM through an uncertain transition.

With the Odinga family offering no immediate, uncontested successor, ODM’s future may depend on whether it can reinvent itself as an institution rather than an extension of its founding dynasty.

The party’s national identity, built around Raila’s charisma, struggle credentials and opposition symbolism, now faces its ultimate test.

ODM leaders have closed ranks around Oburu, projecting him as the steady hand needed to guide the party through its current turbulence.

In a spirited show of unity, senior officials and lawmakers said he is the prime candidate to steady the ship as debates over the party’s future intensify. They cited his long political experience, firm grasp of party structures and closeness to the party’s founding ideals.

Several MPs argued that ODM must anchor itself in a leader who commands respect across the party’s old and new guard.

Nyakach MP Aduma Owuor said Oburu must be respected as the community and party leader and a man who served in elective positions for more than 50 years.

“One of the senior politicians that Jaramogi left us with and who is one of the longest-serving leader in Parliament is Oburu Oginga. Fifty years ago, he was already elected when both Raila and Orengo had not been elected,” Aduma said.

“Some of us we will be keeping guard next to Oburu going forward, some of those making noise will meet our wrath because we are not ready for that confusion.”

Nyando MP Jared Okelo dismissed claims of internal fracture, saying the party is reorganising under the Siaya senator for a stronger comeback.

“Before Oburu was made the party leader, he was the one coordinating our affairs. We don’t want confusion, he will continue doing everything Raila was doing,” Okelo said on Wednesday. He was campaigning for the ODM candidate in Kasipul, Boyd Were.

ODM youth member Kasmuel McOure defended Oburu’s leadership, warning that attacks against him are direct attacks on Raila himself.

“An attack on Dr Oburu Oginga’s leadership of ODM is an attack on Baba’s judgement and on the party structures he carefully built over the years,” McOure said.

“Every decision Baba made regarding the future of the ODM led to Dr Oburu’s confirmation as party leader. He remains our leader, and we shall defend him as fiercely as we defended His Excellency Rt Hon Raila Odinga.”

He said a new faction of “cunning legislators and influential actors” is spending heavily to manufacture an ODM narrative trying to change and erase the Siaya senator’s leadership.

“We shall recognise no other centre of authority in this party,” McOure said. “No amount of money, bullying or the cynical invocation of ‘reform’ will move us.”