Epic race as Ruto, opposition in fierce battle for numbers in 2027

PRESIDENT William Ruto could secure a slight advantage over the united opposition in the high-stakes 2027 race if he successfully inherits the late Raila Odinga’s long-standing political strongholds.

An analysis by the Star shows that Ruto currently commands approximately 24 counties with a combined 9.22 million registered voters, based on the 2022 voter roll.

The united opposition controls about 15 densely populated counties with 8.43 million voters.

Meanwhile, eight counties—holding 4.44 million voters—are shaping up to be the critical battlegrounds likely to decide the election.

However, with nearly two years to go, analysts warn that these political equations could shift rapidly.

The IEBC is targeting 6.8 million additional voters through ongoing mass registration, while turnout patterns could also fundamentally alter the presidential race.

Political observer Charles Munyui suggests that traditional voting blocs may not hold in 2027 due to the rise of a more assertive and politically conscious youth demographic.

 “Balkanisation of the country may not work because of the Gen Z factor. Eight million people did not vote in the last election, this could be their time,” he said.

Beyond numerical strength, the constitution requires a presidential candidate to secure at least 25 per cent of the vote in 24 counties and an overall 50 per cent plus one.

Ruto is expected to dominate the Rift Valley as he did in 2022.

The North and South Rift counties—West Pokot (220,026), Uasin Gishu (506,138), Elgeyo Marakwet (231,884), Baringo (282,053), Kericho (428,067), Bomet (376,985), and Nandi (406,288)—hold 2.4 million voters collectively.

The President is also seeking to penetrate Raila Odinga’s traditional bases at the Coast and in Western Kenya.

At the Coast, where Raila has historically dominated, Ruto is banking on senior government appointments of former governors Hassan Joho, Salim Mvurya, and Amason Kingi to tilt the region.

The four coastal counties — Mombasa (641,913), Kwale (328,253), Kilifi (588,602) and Tana River (191,096) — form a crucial bloc.

However, Lamu and Taita Taveta have a substantial number of Kikuyu and Kamba voters respectively, effectively making them possible battlegrounds.

In Western, Ruto aims to make inroads in Kakamega (844,555), Vihiga (310,043), and Busia (416,756).

However, Trans Nzoia and Bungoma are likely to prove difficult because of the growing influence of Governor George Natembeya.

DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, a key member of the opposition, also hails from the same region.

Ruto is also likely to retain support in the Northeastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa with 623,261 voters.

With Raila’s team behind him, he could also secure the Maa counties of Narok (398,784) and Samburu (100,014), and frontier regions like Turkana (238,528). The opposition is leaning heavily on Gusii, Ukambani, and Mt Kenya counties, which together command 8.43 million registered voters.

Gusii, with 960,293 voters across Kisii (637,010) and Nyamira (323,283), is currently under the strong influence of former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i.

Ukambani, with 1.69 million voters across Makueni, Kitui, and Machakos counties, remains firmly in the grip of Kalonzo Musyoka.

Mt Kenya, boasting 5.77 million voters, is largely aligned with Rigathi Gachagua, who has openly vowed to make Ruto a one-term president.

However, Ruto is still fighting to retain his support and continues to enjoy backing from Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and a majority of MPs from the region. The fiercest fight is expected in eight swing counties: Nairobi (2.41 million voters), Kajiado (463,273), Isiolo (89,504), Marsabit (166,912), Taita Taveta (181,827), Lamu (81,453), Trans Nzoia (398,981), and Bungoma (646,598).

Nairobi remains the country’s most cosmopolitan county and has traditionally leaned toward Raila.

Kajiado also mirrors this diversity, and its loyalties remain hotly contested.

However Isiolo Governor Abdi Guyo contested the classification of his county as a battleground.

 “Isiolo is a Ruto zone. He has worked for our people, and whoever thinks he can take our people to the opposition is dreaming.”

Kajiado Senator Seki Ole Kanar, a close ally of Gachagua, also rejects the notion that Ruto has significant influence in the county.

Citing demographic factors — 130,000 Mt Kenya voters and 60,000 Kamba voters — Seki argues: “So, with Mt Kenya out of Ruto and Kamba also in the opposition, the possibility of Ruto controlling Kajiado is impossible. He has no significance at all.” Seki, who is eyeing the Kajiado governorship under Gachagua’s DCP party told the Star.

“When you talk about the Maa community, there are two clans: the black and the red. I lead the black, and Katoo Ole Metito (State House comptroller) leads the red. We are almost at 50-50,” he said.

“So, with Mt Kenya out of Ruto and Kamba also in the opposition, the possibility of Ruto controlling Kajiado is impossible,” Seki said.

Seki is a close ally of Gachagua and stuck with him even voting to reject his impeachment as Deputy President last year.

In Western, the DAP-Kenya wave led by deputy party leader Natembeya threatens Ruto’s grip in Trans Nzoia and Bungoma.

Still, with powerful allies such as Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Ruto remains competitive. The President has intensified campaigns in regions traditionally aligned with the opposition, including Ukambani, where he pledged last week to overturn Kalonzo’s dominance.

“This time, I have said, by all means, Ukambani will not be in opposition again. I will go with you to the government,” Ruto said.

Ruto has also deepened his push into Mt Kenya — Gachagua’s base — through DP Kithure Kindiki, who has been leading empowerment drives for youth and women, distributing equipment and mobilising support.

At the same time, Ruto has hosted large delegations at State House and deployed senior officials to campaign for him ahead of 2027.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

As the 2027 elections draw closer, the battle lines are being redrawn—not just along traditional ethnic and regional divides, but through new political alliances, strategic government appointments, and the relentless quest for swing votes that could ultimately decide Kenya’s next leader. Already, the factions have activated their political machinery in readiness for the State House battle.