Fresh divisions as opposition factions push for supremacy

Dr Matiang'i is received at Lavington SDA Church by Senior Pastor Samuel Kairiba

In public, the group paints a picture of rock-solid solidarity with key luminaries like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and his DCP counterpart Rigathi Gachagua restating they will stick together.

But beneath the surface of the seemingly formidable coalition, sources point to deep structural fractures that threaten to undermine the project before it even properly begins.

Details are trickling of the vulnerability that has cropped up in the political movement in the face of competing presidential ambitions among its diverse heavyweights.

 Jubilee deputy organising secretary Pauline Njoroge admitted that there were some divisions in the opposition ranks and blamed the state for compounding the fallout.

"There’s something some of us in the opposition are doing very wrong, and quite unstrategically. If you look at the ongoing conversations on Facebook, you would think Kalonzo, Gachagua, and Matiang’i are this country’s main problem, not Ruto," she stated.

"All the fire seems to be directed at them from two sides within the opposition, and of course government bloggers are having an early Christmas, gleefully riding on this spat."

In her words, "there is no major problem" within the united opposition.

In recent weeks, however,  the 

Both figures are competing for dominance within the opposition, each advocating different approaches to selecting the coalition's presidential flag bearer.

Sources intimated to the Star the emergence of camps with Kalonzo, Gachagua, and former Speaker Justin Muturi on one side, and Martha Karua, Matiang’i, and Mukhisa Kituyi on the other.

While the teams agreed to form a secretariat, appointing Kituyi as the spokesperson, and Kalonzo as well as Karua as co-conveners, the differences have frustrated a smooth take-off.

This evidently played out in a presser addressed by Kalonzo and Gachagua on Monday, where Karua and Matiang’i were conspicuously absent.

While it can be understood that Karua was away in Bondo where she had accompanied women leaders to condole with Raila Odinga's family, Matiang’i’s absence was telling.

The Star understands that the Jubilee deputy party leader was in Nairobi and was seemingly not apprised on the intended public pronouncements.

“Some of us saw the presser on television,” an high-ranking insider aware of the intrigues told the Star on the phone on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Matiangi and Karua, alongside Kituyi, reportedly held a separate meeting in Nairobi which was aimed at countering their compatriots’ moves.

Matiang’i was also notably absent at a meeting with lawyers Gachagua attended with Kalonzo last weekend, and many other engagements in Mt Kenya.

Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi let the cat out of the bag in a cryptic post on his socials where he questioned the incessant attacks targeting the ex-Interior CS.

“Why are Riggy G’s and UDA bloggers always attacking Matiang’i? Mti mwenye matunda (a fruit tree is targeted),” he said.

It is understood that Gachagua is comfortable with Kalonzo, and the Luhya vote, with Karua being seen as challenging his dominance in Mt Kenya.

For Jubilee, which has formally endorsed Matiang’i as its representative at the negotiation table, any engagements without the deputy party leader amount to a nullity.

A letter dated October 30 from the party to the co-conveners Kalonzo and Karua indicates that the former Interior CS is its presidential candidate, and the party’s voice in the united opposition.

“Dr Matiang'i has been mandated to represent the Jubilee Party in all the opposition unity forums and engagements,” the letter from the Uhuru Kenyatta-led party reads in part.

It adds that the engagements are in ‘pursuit of a unified and credible opposition front ahead of the forthcoming general elections’.

Gachagua has openly criticised what he calls Matiang'i's preference for ‘boardroom and hotel meetings’ to secure the coalition's endorsement.

The DCP leader insists that no presidency will be made in the boardroom, but in the field, emphasising grassroots mobilisation and direct public engagement as the only path to victory.

However, when asked about whether they (Jubilee) see themselves in the coalition to the end, secretary general Jeremiah Kioni, without giving detailed pointers, said, “Yes”.

Matiang’i, after a meeting at Jubilee headquarters, said, “I have always been firmly focused and committed to the democratic process of searching for a single united opposition candidate for the presidency in 2027.”

He vouched for consensus in coalition building, bringing into question whether the endorsements by Gachagua in favour of Kalonzo have been discussed.

Matiang’i, while maintaining that he has eyes set on the presidency, argued that the dream would be illusory if the opposition remains divided.

“I assure Kenyans that the united opposition leaders will stick together and deliver one candidate. I have my eye on the presidency, a feat that I’ll only achieve through the route of the united opposition. We will remain united.”

Despite the assurances, it is understood that Kalonzo’s position as the presumed front runner for the coalition's ticket has complicated the unity equation.

Gachagua has publicly pledged to campaign for Kalonzo ‘ten times harder’ than he did for Ruto in 2022 if the opposition unites behind him.

The endorsement is framed as repayment of a political debt, with Gachagua stating that ‘Mt Kenya owes Kalonzo a debt’ for supporting former President Mwai Kibaki.

As political analyst Herman Manyora puts it, the events are reminiscent of past coalition-building efforts, a replay of 2002, 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022 patterns.

“Coalitions are never easy to build, run, and maintain. There will always be turbulence. You cannot authoritatively say that you can get rid of the commotion,” he said.

He argued that the forthcoming election is not like 2002, when Kenyans had a massive wave of anger against President Daniel arap Moi.

For Manyora, the other factor affecting the united opposition is the lack of a clear-cut dominant unifying figure, as each tries to outdo the other.

The coalition brings together leaders with competing presidential ambitions, including Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Martha Karua (People's Liberation Party), Eugene Wamalwa (Democratic Action Party of Kenya), Justin Muturi (Democratic Party), and Matiang'i.

“What kept Cord, NASA, and even Azimio going was the Raila figure. In the current one, there is no clear figure who will rally the team in its effort to select a candidate,” Manyora, a University of Nairobi don, said.

Beyond personal ambitions, the coalition faces the daunting task of stitching together a national voting bloc from disparate regional strongholds.

The envisioned alliance would need to harmonise the Mt Kenya support that Gachagua claims to command, Kalonzo's Ukambani base, Matiang'i's influence in the Kisii region, and Wamalwa's Western Kenya foothold.

The complex regional arithmetic is further complicated by the fact that some of the regions have historically been political rivals.

The success of the coalition depends on convincing these traditionally distinct voting blocs to support a unified ticket, a challenge that has defeated many previous political alliances in Kenyan history.

For pundits, the coalition's future likely depends on whether its leaders can prioritise defeating Ruto over their individual ambitions.

“I don't know what it will benefit the opposition to fight each other. To fight Matiangi or to fight Kalonzo or Riggy G. We proceed that way, then we may just prepare for Ruto swearing in 2027,” political commentator Wahome Thuku said, pointing to Matiang’i’s exclusive meetings as a tell-tale sign.

While Gachagua has called for strategic silence until December 2026 to avoid infiltration and sabotage, the very public nature of their disagreements suggests this discipline may be difficult to maintain.

Some political observers also pointed out that the opposition has to work out a strategy against a much organised Ruto side in addition to the advantages of incumbency and access to state machinery.