Ex-CS Matiang’i tough options in 2027 battle with Ruto for top seat

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i was on Thursday endorsed by Uhuru Kenyatta-led Jubilee party to fly the presidential flag in 2027, setting the stage for an epic election battle in 2027.

This move positions him for a direct confrontation with incumbent President William Ruto. 

But even as he folds his sleeves to hit the campaign, political pundits and insiders alike are pointing to the herculean task that lies ahead.

The battle is shaping up is likely to test his political mettle, strategic acumen and the very cohesion of the opposition.

The path ahead involves significant groundwork and coalition building to counter the behemoth that is Ruto’s well-oiled reelection machine.

The immediate and most daunting challenge is the sheer scale at which he has to rebuild Jubilee’s structures and spearhead a nationwide membership registration and grassroots mobilisation campaign.

The party machinery, once a dominant force, has suffered from widespread defections and a loss of morale since the 2022 election, some prior to the poll where the party backed Raila Odinga.

This is not merely an administrative task but a political imperative to mend the broken trust and demonstrate that Jubilee remains a viable political home.

Observers are however quick to pour cold water on Matiang’i’s endorsement by the former ruling party, arguing that it will not translate to votes.

University don Prof Gitile Naituli argues that neither Uhuru nor Jubilee will help the former Interior CS navigate the Mt Kenya region.

“Uhuru support in Mt Kenya is very slim, he only gave Raila about 1.4 million votes despite having power. How many votes can he get Matiang’i while he is outside?” Prof Gitile said.

Political analyst and Mandela Washington fellow Alfred Makotsi told the Star that Jubilee’s political influence in the region has waned since Uhuru left office, cautioning that Matiang’I’s move to tie his fortunes to the former ruling party is a strategic blunder.

“Historically speaking, it is a miscalculation if he wants to be president. In 2022, Jubilee — the then ruling party under Uhuru — supported the late Raila, yet he lost both in Central and in the national presidential tally,” Makotsi said.

“There is so much that Rigathi (Gachagua) and his party, DCP (Democracy for the Citizens Party), have done in Central that he now commands the region. Matiang’i should know that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Kisii region is a bird in his hand.”

Political analysts Daniel Orogo however disagrees on the choice of the 2027 political vehicle, saying that Matiang’i will leverage on Jubilee’s well established infrastructure that extends to grassroots.

“A new political outfit or joining a little known political party is both resource and time consuming and could not work to the advantage of both Uhuru and Matiang’i,” Orogo said.

The other key uncertainty is who will be the single candidate for the United Opposition, a team that has big names like Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Gachagua, Martha Karua and Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K).

The goal of this coalition is to form a formidable challenge to President Ruto, meaning there would be calls for other names to sacrifice their bid if they have to craft a winning strategy.

The fundamental question is who will be the coalition's single presidential candidate? 

With so many seasoned leaders at the table, each with their own regional base and national ambitions, crafting a winning strategy will inevitably require painful sacrifices.

Jubilee has already said it will back the coalition’s chosen flagbearer, even if it’s not Matiang’i, pointing to the waning chances should that come to fruition. This suggests that while he is party’s candidate, negotiations are ongoing within the broader opposition front to settle on a single nominee.

Jubilee is betting on Matiang'i's non-tribal appeal and administrative record to expand its reach beyond its traditional strongholds and into regions like Western, Kisii and the Coast.

According to political analyst Elias Mutuma, Uhuru’s national outlook may work to the advantage of the former powerful minister. This comes after the former President chaired Jubilee’s national executive committee meeting that endorsed Matiang’i.

“You realised that Uhuru received a rousing welcome during Raila’s burial in Nyanza and that tells you that Kenyans see him as a national leader because what he told us (about the current administration) came to pass,” Mutuma said. “People, across the country, will thus trust Uhuru.”

Matiang’i’s formal declaration in May this year was made in his home region of Gusii, emphasising unity and his readiness to serve.

Sources intimate that the United Opposition is narrowing down to Kalonzo as the outfit’s presidential candidate, a position that could set stage for a huge jostle by the other key players.

Such a move would fundamentally alter Matiang’i’s political dreams

Furthermore, the prospect of him becoming a running mate to Kalonzo is also fraught with complications. 

Prof Naituli believes that Matiang’i has very little chance in the United Opposition, insisting that Mt Kenya – which is the main pillar of the coalition – will most likely back a candidate that they feel safe with.

“Remember Kikuyus will look inwards for the one who they know will serve their interests. When we talk about looking inwards, the Kamba nation comes closer to them over Matiang’i,” the university don.

Sentiments from camps allied to Gachagua argue that Mt Kenya region, which Matiang’i does not hail from, deserves a bigger bargain due to its numerical strength. 

This ethnic and regional arithmetic often trumps individual merit in Kenyan politics, potentially sidelining the former minister despite his administrative record and non-tribal appeal. As such, even chances for him emerging as running mate for Kalonzo remains slim.

Instant analysis:

Matiang’i, who has projected himself as a reform-minded technocrat, is expected to lean on Uhuru’s political machinery to make inroads outside his Gusii stronghold as he positions himself as the unity candidate to unseat Ruto.