Why Vance's visit shows US-China rivalry for Kenya

US Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit Kenya from November 24.

The four-day visit, according to Africa Intelligence, will start at the conclusion of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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The visit—Vance’s first to the continent since assuming office—is expected to centre on trade, investment, security and climate cooperation, areas where Kenya has become a regional leader and a critical partner for the US and the EU.

Foreign policy experts say the visit, coming soon after the cancelled visit by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, underscores Washington’s renewed push to counter China’s growing influence in East Africa as both powers compete for economic and strategic dominance.

The visit will also be happening when relations between Nairobi and Washington have been lukewarm over the close ties with Beijing.

Senator Jim Risch, chairperson of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in May proposed the reviewing of Kenya's status as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) due to concerns over its growing ties with China, Iran, and Russia.

Washington is also yet to name a substantial ambassador in Nairobi following Meg Whitman’s departure.

Kenya has, however, been a close ally of the US in regional stabilisation, particularly in the DRC and the Horn of Africa.

Nairobi has also been a close contact in the Haiti mission in the Biden and Trump administrations.

PCS and Foreign Affairs CS Musalia Mudavadi has, however, denied there are challenges.

“But first of all, let it be on record: this is not the position of the US government. It is a proposal coming from an individual senator. That distinction must be made because there has been misinterpretation in some quarters,” Mudavadi said in August.

Kenya has long been a key ally of American engagement in Africa, particularly in the Horn of Africa and East Africa, hosting major US missions on counterterrorism, such as the Manda Bay base in Lamu.

However, China’s massive infrastructure investments have shifted Nairobi’s external orientation, with Thika Superhighway, the SGR, the Expressway, highways, industrial parks, and energy facilities entrenching Beijing as Kenya’s top lender and trading partner.

It is in this hindsight that Vance’s trip is seen as an opportunity for Washington to reclaim strategic ground, even after President William Ruto’s remarks that Kenya and China are "new world order partners."

George Watson, commenting on the visit, said it will be a huge boost for the President Ruto-US alliance.

Watson said the visit will also bolster US-Kenya relations on trade and security.

“Key discussions will address renewing the expired African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), crucial for Kenya's apparel and textile exports, and enhancing cooperation on the US-supported mission to stabilize Haiti. The trip also aims to advance regional counterterrorism efforts and counter Chinese influence in East Africa,” he said.

A foreign affairs analyst who did not want to be named said while the visit is crafted as one based on trade, diplomacy and security, the real reason beneath it is critical minerals in the DRC.

“Kenya’s role in regional peace and security has been critical and there is a link whereby Washington believes Kenya has to play if it is to benefit from the critical minerals in Congo,” he said.

The US stands to benefit from mineral rights as part of the June 2025 peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda, which seeks to create a transparent regional framework for mineral extraction and trade.

China is also heavily interested in the mineral in the DRC and has been heavily present in the mining.

Still, Nairobi faces a delicate balancing act. Ruto’s administration has pursued close ties with Washington and Beijing, leveraging their rivalry to attract funding and investment. But as competition intensifies, Kenya risks being pulled into the orbit of one power at the expense of the other. Diplomatic observers say the November 24 visit will test Kenya’s ability to project neutrality while securing tangible gains.

For the US, it is a moment to reassert its relevance in a region where China’s influence is visible in nearly every major public project, including the latest Rironi-Mau Summit road.