How Raila's death threatens ODM's dominance of Nairobi politics

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and its affiliates' dominance of Nairobi city politics is at stake following the death of Raila Odinga.

Analysts feel that the absence of a strong personality of the stature of Raila opens the capital city to new players as the nearly 20-year firm grip of ODM faces imminent collapse.

Nairobi's five largest voting blocs in numbers include Kikuyus, Luhyia, Kamba, Luos and Kisiis in that order, with Raila strongholds being dominated by the latter four. 

In 2007, just two years after its formation, ODM clinched 6 of the then 8 constituencies, announcing its arrival in the capital city. The seats won included Raila himself in Langata, Fred Gumo in Westlands, Reuben Ndolo in Makadara, Margaret Wanjiru in Starehe, the late Mugabe Were in Embakasi, and Elizabeth Ongoro in Kasarani. 

ODM also became the majority party in City Hall, making Geoffrey Majiwa and later George Aladwa the second-to-last and last mayor of the defunct Nairobi City Council.  

ODM and its affiliates have dominated Nairobi politics, with the Raila-led formation securing a majority of seats at both the parliamentary level following the expansion of constituencies from 8 to 17 and Nairobi County, including the County Assembly, since 2013.

During the last general elections, ODM secured eight parliamentary seats, while its allies, the Jubilee Party and Wiper, had 3 and one respectively.

This meant that the Azimio La Umoja coalition clinched 12 out of 17 seats, leaving its rival UDA with just five constituencies, while Kasarani went to Ronald Karauri as an independent candidate.

ODM had Felix Jalango (Langata), Babu Owino (Embakasi East), George Aladwa (Makadara), Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North), Anthony Oluoch (Mathare), TJ Kajwang (Ruaraka), Peter Orero (Kibra), and Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands).

Its Jubilee affiliate clinched Starehe through Amos Mwago, Embakasi West through Mark Mwenje, and Kamkunji through Yusuf Hassan, as Embakasi South went to Wiper’s Julius Mawathe.

In addition, ODM secured Woman Rep position via Esther Passaris, with ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna taking the Senate seat. UDA clinched the gubernatorial slot after Johnson Sakaja beat Azimio’s Polycarp Igathe of Jubilee.

At the County Assembly level ODM and its affiliates secured 45 out of the 85 ward seats; with ODM getting 35, Jubilee 6 and Wiper 4. Its rival UDA party clinched 36 seats and its affiliate Chama Cha Kazi one slot. Three wards were taken by Independents.

Prior to this, ODM under Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) dominated in the 2013 elections as well as 2017 under the National Super Alliance (NASA).

Raila’s ability to craft alliances and attract support from different ethnic communities that dominate Nairobi has always been credited for the sterling performance of his formation, which now faces a bleak future.

With ODM witnessing internal turmoil just a few days after Raila’s death, observers say that tables will definitely turn and an alliance of the united opposition may dominate Nairobi politics in 2027.  

“Raila’s charisma is what propelled ODM and held it together. It’s the wind that sailed the ship called ODM. In the absence of that, I am not a prophet, but doing analysis, it’s difficult to see the emergence of a replacement who is charismatic enough to command a massive following,” Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah says.

Makadara MP George Aladwa, who is the Nairobi branch ODM chairman, says only a unity of purpose and respect will assure his party and partners the existing dominance.

“Even if we support President Ruto’s re-election, given Baba left us in government, we must retain the ODM as an identity. It can’t be weakened or dissolved,” Aladwa said, addressing fears that ODM may disintegrate and be swallowed by UDA.

Kilimani MCA Moses Ogeto, who is also the Nairobi County Assembly Majority Whip, acknowledged that his party’s grip on city politics is threatened with the absence of Raila, who was the glue that united key voting blocs.

“Raila was able to craft a formula that secured us many seats in Nairobi, and also as an individual, he attracted support from across communities in the city. That comparative advantage for ODM and its coalition partners may not hold in his absence,” Ogeto says.

Indeed, immediately after the 2022 elections, Governor Sakaja was seen leaning towards ODM and Raila for strategic reasons. The goodwill he enjoyed with the ODM leader came in handy recently after Raila intervened to have MCAs drop a planned impeachment motion.

Raila’s death means most Nairobi leaders have now returned to the drawing board to strategise their survival post Raila Odinga.