How Raila’s death and ensuing divisions could puncture ODM’s 2027 negotiations with Ruto

The death of Raila Odinga and divisions emerging in his wake risk dealing a major blow to ODM’s bargaining power in the run-up to the 2027 power-sharing talks with President William Ruto.

Raila was the unifying force and key player whose influence across multiple regions strengthened ODM’s hand at the negotiating table.

His absence has left a leadership vacuum, with fractures already visible in the once formidable outfit as leaders pull in different directions over the party’s future.

Secretary general Edwin Sifuna leads a faction opposed to working with Ruto, while acting party leader Oburu Oginga heads the camp supporting cooperation with the broad-based government.

The growing rift threatens to tear the party apart and erode its negotiating leverage with the President.

For nearly four decades, Raila dominated the political scene, commanding loyalty across major voting blocs in Nyanza, Western, Coast, Northeastern, Nairobi and parts of the Rift Valley.

These regions formed ODM’s backbone and gave the party a formidable edge in coalition talks.

With Raila gone, questions abound whether ODM can retain its political muscle without the man who personified its brand and unity.

“It is a fact that ODM and Kenya at large have no other leader with the stature and following of Raila. Many of his support bases will disintegrate and that will hurt ODM,” governance analyst Martin Andati said.

He said Nyanza could politically fragment, while Western and Coast may witness the rise of new regional kingpins.

Vocal leaders such as Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and Mining CS Hassan Joho are already being touted as potential power centeres.

Before his death, speculation was rife that Raila and ODM would demand the deputy president’s slot in the next election.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga — a staunch Raila ally who had embraced Ruto’s broad-based government — was among those believed to be eyeing the running mate position.

“She is good at lobbying, including attracting national government projects that have earned her recognition from the President. That gives her serious credit,” Andati said.

ODM also expected to secure several key government positions, including Cabinet slots, principal secretaries, parastatal heads and ambassadorial posts.

In fact, through the broad-based government arrangement negotiated by Raila himself, ODM already landed several senior roles.

Among those appointed were Treasury CS John Mbadi, Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, Mining CS Hassan Joho, Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya, EAC CS Beatrice Askul, and Attorney-General Dorcas Oduor — all close allies of Raila.

Raila’s absence now leaves a gaping void that could weaken ODM’s hand in future negotiations, diminishing its prospects of securing favourable terms ahead of the 2027 general election.

Adding to the uncertainty is the widening split within ODM over whether to back President Ruto’s re-election.

Sifuna and Babu have led a faction openly rejecting the idea of working with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“This thing called broad-based government — I don’t know where it exists. There is a government of Kenya Kwanza under President Ruto and every CS in that government serves Kenya Kwanza,” Sifuna said recently.

“Baba told me that even after we donated our experts to the government, ODM is not in government. He said it himself. If ODM is not in government, then its secretary-general cannot be in government.”

Despite such dissent, Raila kept ODM intact, balancing rival factions and maintaining cohesion.

It remains to be seen whether his elder brother and acting party leader Senator Oburu Odinga, can replicate that unifying role.

Although Raila never explicitly endorsed Ruto’s re-election in 2027, his decision to allow some allies to work with the President, coupled with his cordial working relationship with the Head of State, spoke volumes.

“Don’t commit the party to things that have not been discussed. Who told you ODM does not have a candidate in 2027?” Raila warned party members last month.

“As ODM, we have a clear plan that we have agreed on and let us implement it. Other decisions will be made when the time comes.”

Raila’s pragmatic partnership with Ruto emerged after a wave of Gen Z–led protests that nearly paralysed the Kenya Kwanza administration, forcing the President to seek inclusivity and dialogue.

Observers say Ruto, who hoped to inherit Raila’s support bases, may now be forced back to the drawing board to recalibrate his 2027 re-election strategy.

“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now uncertain, he needed a replacement — which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” political observer Elias Mutuma said.

“The President must rethink his plan. Even when Raila was alive, there were murmurs of defiance within ODM. What will happen now that Baba is no more?” Andati asked.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Raila Odinga’s death has thrown ODM — and Kenya’s opposition politics at large — into uncertainty. The central force that united multiple regional blocs and competing ambitions is gone. Without Raila’s unifying presence, ODM risks fragmentation as emerging figures jostle for influence in Nyanza, Western, and the Coast — regions that long moved in lockstep with him. The party’s negotiating strength, once anchored in Raila’s charisma and vast political networks, now faces a steep decline, potentially weakening its leverage in any future coalition or power-sharing arrangements.