No smooth sailing for Ruto in ODM takeover after Raila’s death

PRESIDENT William Ruto’s quiet manoeuvres to woo ODM following the death of Raila Odinga are facing stiff resistance, threatening his 2027 political arithmetic.

Ruto has a vested interest in managing ODM's transition. His broad-based government relied on Raila’s influence to secure legislative support and political stability.

But his plan for a smooth takeover is facing significant resistance and may not be easy. The party is deeply fractured, and the president's own actions have exposed the complexities of his ambition.

Many of those opposed to automatic Ruto re-election support argue that Raila left no roadmap beyond 2027.

The move is widely feared could complicate Ruto’s strategy to secure a broader base in 2027, especially if ODM charts a different path.

In this team, there are the party’s secretary general Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, and Rarieda MP Otiende Amolo.

This faction contends that Odinga’s last instructions were for ODM to strengthen itself and field its own presidential candidate in the next election.

A rival ODM group, which is the majority, led by national chairperson Gladys Wanga, had earlier sought to commit the party to Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid.

Otiende on Wednesday joined the list of politicians opposing calls for the Orange party to automatically back President Ruto in 2027, insisting that Raila Odinga left no such instructions.Speaking during a morning radio show on Spice FM, Otiende said those pushing the narrative of an automatic endorsement were distorting Raila’s legacy for political convenience.

“Up to his death, Raila had not pronounced himself on what happens in 2027 moving forward. That’s where speculation begins. There are those in the Executive who naturally are urging the party to go beyond 2027 as they have robustly expressed,” Otiende said.

While acknowledging that the Orange party backs the broad-based government, Otiende insisted that the 2027 deal must be negotiated fresh.

He also warned against any move to have the Orange party swallowed by Ruto-led UDA, saying such a move would render the opposition party voiceless.

“When it comes to 2027, if the President still desires the support of ODM, we must enter into a structured negotiation again. We must be very clear that if we were to support UDA, what are the gains, and we cannot do that if we are swallowed by UDA,” the Rarieda MP said.

“Irrespective of what anyone says, we must remain strong and independent as a party first, then we have a strong bargaining and negotiating position; otherwise, we will be swallowed up by UDA, and there will be no interest in negotiating anything.”

During Raila’s burial on Sunday, Sifuna and Orengo echoed similar sentiments, warning against rushing into political alignments before the party reorganises and holds proper consultations.

The leaders insist ODM must rebuild from within and honour the ideology of its founder rather than drift into the ruling coalition.

“Raila Odinga himself said that the ODM party will prepare for the 2027 general elections. To those spreading other information, Raila asked, ‘Who has told you that?’ So, we will follow the last standing instructions,” Sifuna said.

“This is not the time to push selfish narratives in ODM. ODM is a party for everyone, for the whole country.”

Orengo called on President William Ruto to uphold political party structures, warning against weakening them even when forming coalitions.

“Even as we speak about unity, let us not kill political parties. Political parties are the foundation of democracy. Any arrangements we enter into, don’t kill political parties. In 1963, political parties were killed, and it took us 20 years to fight to revive political parties,” Orengo said.

Their united stand signals growing resistance within ODM to attempts by pro-government figures to sway the party toward Ruto’s camp.

With Raila gone, Ruto needs to ensure the ODM bloc remains within his coalition to advance his agenda and bolster his 2027 re-election prospects.

Ruto on Sunday appeared ready to gain full control of the ODM party, an outfit whose support is part of his 2027 re-election plans.

Speaking during Raila’s funeral at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology in Bondo, the President made it clear that he would not allow ODM to drift back into opposition politics.

“Let me make this clear today: ODM, be assured that it will form the next government or be part of the next government,” Ruto said.

“What I would not allow, out of respect for Raila, is for those who want to pull ODM out to go gamble with it out there.”

The remarks, observers believe, exposed Ruto’s resolve to gain control of the 20-year-old party.

“In my understanding, the President could only be referring to the broad-based government because there is no way President William, who is the leader of UDA, can speak for ODM, which, for all intents and purposes is a party in competition with UDA,” Otiende said.

“What the President needs to do is to maintain non-interference with ODM as a party; that is what will be helpful.”

The emerging issues are expected to feature prominently during Monday’s ODM Central Management Committee meeting.

Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir confirmed the meeting during an interview with Citizen TV.

“We will have a special central committee meeting that Oburu Oginga will be chairing on Monday with three main agendas focusing on upcoming by-elections, celebrating ODM at 20, where we will celebrate the 80 years we had with our party leader, the late Raila Odinga, and discussing the 10-point agenda signed between UDA and ODM,” Nassir said.

The deputy party leader added that the meeting will also touch on the next course after the death of the party’s long-serving leader.

“Our opponents want to see us fall, but we will be meeting where we will forge the way forward and iron out the ideological differences that appear to emerge,” Nassir said.

The power struggle leaves ODM's future hanging in the balance. The party must now navigate its path without the "glue" that held it together for two decades.

The coming months will be a critical test for ODM. President Ruto may find that while he can influence the party, actually taking control of the politically orphaned but storied ODM will be far from plain sailing.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Political observers note that while Ruto hopes to consolidate national unity and weaken the opposition, ODM’s emotional attachment to Raila’s memory has created a new wave of loyalty that could frustrate his outreach strategy. For now, it appears that winning ODM hearts — even in Raila’s absence - remains Ruto’s toughest political assignment yet.