President Ruto to craft new power plan after death of Raila

A composite photo of President William Ruto and Raila Odinga/The Star

President William Ruto faces the urgent task of constructing a new political blueprint for the 2027 elections following the sudden departure of his erstwhile rival and recent ally, Raila Odinga, from the political scene.

With the opposition in disarray and the Raila political dynasty facing an uncertain future, Ruto must fundamentally reshape both his government and his electoral strategy.

For the first time since independence, Kenya navigates a political landscape without a commanding Raila figure, creating a mix of both opportunity and peril for the Ruto administration.

Political pundits agree that the Kenya Kwanza brigade must now recalibrate.

“He [President Ruto] has a lot of work to do,” said Macharia Munene, a political commentator from USIU, identifying Western, Nyanza, and Muslim communities as critical factors.

“The good thing is that he and Raila have finished their relationship on a positive note. The feeling is that Raila's followers will continue working with Ruto as a better alternative.”

The central puzzle for Ruto is the composition of his 2027 ticket.

Notable figures such as Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, and Mining CS Hassan Joho stand at the centre of his calculus.

While each represents a distinct strategic pathway, the Kindiki option could also play out, for continuity and reward for loyalty.

The DP has positioned himself as a steadfast champion of Ruto's agenda, his nationwide tours promoting government initiatives doubling as early campaign efforts.

Retaining him would be a play to consolidate the Mt Kenya East vote, in the wake of the greater Mt Kenya region showing signs of drifting away.

However, the deputy presidency in Kenyan politics has more often been a tool for coalition-building than a reward for loyalty.

As such, some analysts suggest it may be impossible for Ruto to retain Kindiki as his running mate in 2027 as the President seeks to broaden his coalition.

The Kindiki dilemma represents a classic political calculation, bringing the question of whether Ruto should maintain continuity with a proven ally, or use the running mate slot to pull other constituencies into his fold.

Alternatively, Ruto could elevate Musalia Mudavadi to the running mate position, a move long anticipated by the Luhya leader's supporters.

This would be complemented by elevating Joho to Prime Cabinet Secretary, leveraging his significant influence in the Coast region, a critical Raila base.

Professor Gitile Naituli argues that Ruto’s primary task is to please the Luo and Luhya communities, as the bedrock of his previous support has shifted.

“Let’s assume he runs with Kindiki, what does he tell the Luos and Luhyas? These are the two groups he needs to please,” he observed.

“He doesn’t have to please Somalis; they will follow him whether he gives them anything or not. Somalis have a culture of supporting the government in power.”

The ex-NCIC commissioner further elaborated on the erosion of Ruto’s 2022 base.

“With Mt Kenya out of the equation, the President has to get a replacement that is as committed as the Kikuyu vote that propelled him to power. Even the Luhya of the Bukusu extraction will not support him,” he stated.

“Since 1992, the Bukusu and Mt Kenya have voted on the same side. When Mt Kenya left, the Bukusu also left. Those two are out; there is nothing he can do to get them, but he can still do something to get a significant piece of the Luo and Luhya vote,” Naituli said.

The logic brings the ‘Wanga factor’ sharply into focus. Her rapid ascent to ODM national chairperson has positioned her as a potential kingmaker.

As a successful female governor from Nyanza with proven grassroots mobilisation skills, her selection would represent the boldest form of coalition-building.

She offers a gender breakthrough potential, regional influence from the Luo stronghold, and a bridge between opposition and government spheres.

As Caren Oloo of Maendeleo Ya Wanawake notes, "Wanga is not just a talker, she is a doer. She has what it takes to drive the country forward."

However, her effectiveness is not guaranteed. Prof Munene cautions that, “The challenge with the Luo vote is the turnout. If that remains the case, Ruto will be in trouble even if he picks Wanga. Will Gladys Wanga increase his vote opportunity? If not, he will go elsewhere.”

Munene suggests Ruto’s only clear path is to consolidate the Rift Valley vote 100 per cent, giving him a head start of three million votes.

“The Kalenjin vote is quite substantial, so he just needs a running mate who can take him close to the 50 per cent plus one threshold and then top up with Northeastern.”

As part of the preparations for 2027, insiders indicate that Ruto wants to accommodate the Kanu team led by chairman Gideon Moi.

"There is a proposal to create two slots for deputy PCS, one for Joho and the other for Gideon. CS Miano is likely to be dropped. Kanu is supposed to get two CS slots, one for Gideon and the other for Poghishio, plus five PS slots and two ambassadors," a highly placed source intimated to the Star.

"Wandayi might not survive as they are trying to get Babu Owino to come in as CS for Education, replacing Migosi Ogamba who will be moved to another docket," the source added. "There's also a proposal to have Felix Kosgey retire and be replaced by Roads CS Davis Chirchir so that the Chirchir slot is given to a politician."

For pundits, Ruto’s immediate headache is ensuring ODM remains a pliant ally.

Key party figures like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have been vocally against working with the President, and their defiance could splinter the Luo vote regardless of Wanga’s position.

Amid the uncertainty, some analysts believe Ruto is far from being helpless.

Political analyst Herman Manyora said the notion that Ruto is finished without Raila is misplaced, adding that the President would now fall back to his Plan B.

“He must be having something up his sleeve. He could use this period to pacify some people. I will not be surprised if he comes up with a government of national unity,” he said.

Such a move would be designed to dilute the opposition and create a grand coalition that makes the 2027 election a foregone conclusion.

Yet, significant threats remain.

For political analyst Prof Martin Oloo, Ruto could still lose in 2027 despite aligning with ODM, Kanu and Uhuru Kenyatta, due to a mobilised and disillusioned youth vote.

“The young people will not vote because of the leaders. Many of them feel betrayed, especially in the wake of Ruto appearing to woo dynasties,” he said.

The situation underscores Ruto’s vulnerability, that is, the perception that the realignment of political elites is disconnected from the public’s demand for economic relief and accountability.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The post-Raila political landscape offers a rare, if daunting, opportunity to transcend traditional ethnic and partisan divisions. President Ruto stands at a historic juncture where his next moves will determine not only his re-election prospects but his legacy. His success hinges on whether he can craft a coalition that genuinely represents Kenya's diverse aspirations, or if he merely presides over a reshuffling of the same political deck, potentially awakening a new, issue-based opposition from a disenchanted electorate. The calculus is no longer just about allies and enemies, but about capturing the imagination of a nation in transition.